MOScout Daily Update: Brattin Primary? - Consultant Merger? - Fear of Realtors - Shore to Eigel? - Malek Honors Roe and more...

Scuttlebutt From GOP Summer Caucus

Here are a few rumors and tidbits from the Republican Summer Caucus last weekend…

·       Brattin Primary Coming?  One rumor circulating is that Rep. Dan Houx is strong considering primarying Sen. Rick Brattin.  It’s said that Houx has at least one major financial commitment in place from a key group. 

·       Ed Reformers With Dinkins?  Folks expect that the education reform groups will rally behind Rep. Chris Dinkins in the Senate 27 race. 

·       Burger Options Open: And folks say not to count Rep. Jamie Burger out of that race.  It’s possible he’ll see where his leadership bid goes while keeping his options open on Senate 27. Rep. Alex Riley, Burger’s opponent for Floor Leader, continues working very hard, and is well-respected and well-liked.

·       New Record: I’m told that HRCC raised $1.2M at summer caucus – a new record.

1 Big Thing: Why Realtors Inspire Fear

The Realtors have formed and started funding a campaign committee to prevent initiative petition reform.  One capitol veteran explains why the smart money bets a Realtor-led coalition would defeat a legislatively-referred ballot measure they opposed.

·       The Missouri Realtors comprise the state's largest professional trade association. Members live and work in every county and most cities. In Missouri, there are more than 20,000 Realtors. Including some members of the General Assembly.

·       Local Realtors are high-profile community figures. They lead or volunteer for Chambers of Commerce, boards of local financial institutions, companies, schools and churches, sports teams and kids' sports.

·       They are particularly adept at putting up signs and grassroots communications. Importantly, they have the network, infrastructure and means to mobilize quickly.

·       They are so massive in membership and influence, they have their own national and state organizations called the Realtor Party. Realtors make multi-year fundraising commitments.

·       Realtors care about protecting the initiative petition process because they have mounted IP campaigns in the past. One such campaign added an amendment to the Missouri Constitution barring transfer taxes on real estate.  Missouri Realtors celebrated by handing out big lapel buttons emblazoned with the percentage by which the amendment passed: 83.7%.

Rumorville: Trinity Coming?

Rumors are circulating of a possible merger between two prominent Missouri consultants.  The Barklage Company and Palm Strategic Group are said to be considering hooking up. 

The Barklage Company is of course run by veteran consultant David Barklage. Palm is the home of Scott Dieckhaus and Jonathan Ratliff

·       One hint in public filings: Trinity Strategies LLC was recently formed.  Its purpose is “to provide a complete range of public affairs, advocacy, and related services; to consult, advise or manage political campaigns, and related services…”  Its principal office address is associated with Barklage.

Speaking of Consultants…

One Missouri consultant thinks it was interesting to see State Treasurer Vivek Malek honoring the guy whose firm is running Cody Smith’s campaign against him.

MOScout/Remington Poll: GOPers Say Trump Does No Wrong

Looking inside the partisan splits from last weekend’s MOScout/Remington poll, Republican primary voters are largely unmoved by the various criminal allegations leveled against Donald Trump.

Here are the Republican primary voters’ numbers (of course, never forget that smaller sample sizes in subgroups mean a high margin of error).

Q3: From what you have heard about the various indictments of Donald Trump, which best describes your reaction?

Trump did nothing wrong: 56%

Trump may have broken some laws, but he shouldn’t be prosecuted: 29%

Trump may have broken some laws, and if a jury finds him guilty, he should be punished: 7%

Trump is a criminal: 2%

Not sure: 7%

That’s 85% of Republican voters who think Trump did nothing wrong / shouldn’t be prosecuted. So, it’s no wonder that Trump’s opponents are treating him with kid gloves, and Missouri Republicans are quiet about the indictments.

Shore to Eigel?

I’m told that Sophia Shore, chief of staff to Sen. Jill Carter, will be leaving that office to go work on Sen. Bill Eigel’s gubernatorial campaign.

·       If true, it means that Eigel is taking the next step as he transitions from an exploratory campaign to the read deal; he’s hiring up. 

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard Craighead terminated his lobbyist registration.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Shane Schoeller, Sammy Panettiere, Katie Gamble, David Hageman, and Mike Deering.