MOScout Weekender: Ashcroft Language Would Doom Pro-Choice IP - Hallway Yawns at Trump Indictment - WWTW and more...
1 Big Thing: Ashcroft Language Would Doom Pro-Choice IP
Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft’s ballot language in proposed pro-choice initiative petitions are coming before the Cole County Circuit Court next month. If the ACLU is unsuccessful in their legal efforts to force a rewrite of Ashcroft’s language it will doom the IP to certain defeat at the ballot box.
In April Remington Research/MOScout polled a hypothetical pro-choice initiative petition by lifting language from the petition itself. “There is a proposal to amend the state constitution to forbid the government from infringing on a person’s fundamental right to make and carry out decision about reproductive healthcare, including but not limited to birth control and abortion care. Would you say you support or oppose this proposal?”
It showed a tough path for pro-choice advocates…
Support: 29%
Oppose: 37%
Not Sure: 34%
· NET -8%
But the result using Ashcroft’s language (below) makes it an impossible campaign…
Support: 22%
Oppose: 53%
Not sure: 25%
· NET -31%
Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide Issues and Races
Survey conducted August 2 through August 3, 2023. 834 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you support or oppose an amendment to the Missouri Constitution to allow for dangerous, unregulated, and unrestricted abortions, from conception to live birth, without requiring a medical license or potentially being subject to medical malpractice?
Support: 22%
Oppose: 53%
Not sure: 25%
Q2: Do you support or oppose an amendment to Missouri law to increase minimum wage on January 1, 2025, to $13.75 per hour, increasing $1.25 per hour each year until 2027, when the minimum wage would be $16.25 per hour?
Support: 53%
Oppose: 38%
Not sure: 9%
Q3: Do you support or oppose an amendment to Missouri law to require all employers to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every thirty hours worked?
Support: 52%
Oppose: 27%
Not sure: 21%
Q4: If the election for President were held today and the candidates were just Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 53%
Joe Biden: 37%
Undecided: 10%
Q5: If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were just Republican Jay Ashcroft and Democrat Crystal Quade, for whom would you vote?
Jay Ashcroft: 52%
Crystal Quade: 29%
Undecided: 19%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: On Trump Indictment
I asked lobbyists, “How does the latest Trump indictment impact Missouri politics?” 25 replies…
RESULTS
1. Help Democrats… 16%
2. Help Republicans… 12%
3. No impact… 72%
Sample of Comments
· Folks have already made up their mind on Trump. You either love him or hate them, and you think this indictment is either truthful or a witch hunt.
· No significant impact. Why? Because nothing matters anymore. Once upon a time character mattered. MO politics is now a shameful race to the bottom.
· All the indictments are running together now. The NY one damaged what normal people will think about all of them. It is just background noise for most Missourians at this point.
· The Trump indictment won't help Dems or Republicans in the general election. Democrats have no chance in statewide races and in the suburban swing seats, the cake is baked -- most suburban women in particular can't stand Trump and no indictment or jury verdict will change that. What it will do is cause Republican pols and the operatives advising them to contort themselves into ridiculous legal positions on the case in order to mollify base voters. The irony is that most of these pols and operatives secretly despise Trump and desperately want him to go away, but find themselves in a position (after 7 years of defending this stuff, thanks to tribalism) where the "correct" short-term electoral play is at odds with what they know is the right position practically, legally, and morally.
· I think you see out state and the conservative caucus get more fired up. This just reenforces the narrative that everyone is out to get him regardless of his actual activities.
· Waaaaaay too early for this heightened anxiety by voters on this issue to carry through to Election Day.
· No significant impact, if voters haven't already been moved by 2 impeachments, Jan6, previous indictment..., this isn't going to do it either. Also nothing outside of Obama being on the ballot has helped democrats in Missouri in the past 20 years.
Who Won the Week?
Boeing – The aerospace giant says, “jobs” and everyone snaps to attention.
Sarah Unsicker – A willingness to call her own party’s poor judgement wins her kudos for putting principle over partisanship.
Cindy O’Laughlin – Her fist-shaking at the Public Service Commission ignite a debate over energy policy, if nothing else.
Anti-IP Reformers – Realtors preparing a campaign committee show that they’re in the fight for the long haul. They’re still engaged and vigilant in making sure the IP process remains accessible.
Megan Price – Joins the Missouri Workforce Development Board.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $7,367 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $27,226 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement Collaborative.
HBS MO State PAC - $12,500 from Altria (Richmond, VA).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to George Draper III.
Sunday: Bob Nance, Jack Bondon, and Mark Milton.