MOScout Daily Update: Revenue Watch - Jacobs in House 38 - Pro-Choice Enough? - Flame-Throwers Day 2 and more...
1 Big Thing: Revenue Watch
There’s a danger of getting whipsawed by watching the state’s daily revenue reports. They’re volatile and “trends” can quickly reverse. But with 10 days left in the month, yesterday’s report was worrisome: month to date totals are running nearly 30% below last year’s. That’s a dollar amount of about $200 million less in revenue.
· It’s something to keep an eye on as it could impact next session – certainly clamping down an tax cut talk even in an election year.
And
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic news has been an accumulation of papercuts lately. The “soft landing” seems in danger of becoming a “hard landing.”
· Missouri’s August jobs report was disappointing. “Private industry employment decreased by 16,100 jobs,” including 6,500 in manufacturing.
Both Side Embrace Book Burning Debate
One Republican rolls his eyes at the “book burning” accusations online: To be clear on the flamethrowers. The book burning narrative was created after the fact, by online trolls and was in no part the narrative at the event. The senators were asked to demonstrate the flamethrowers capabilities before they were auctioned off.
But Eigel sensing the viral nature of the moments has embraced it…
And this morning he gets the front-page headline on the KCStar:
Dems are embracing it too…
Fundraising appeals from MODem Party and from MODem Senators:
Will IP Be Pro-Choice Enough for Activists?
The effort to undo Missouria’s total ban on abortions has exposed the full range of pro-choice sentiment in Missouri. For example, Jamie Corley has crafted a slate of pro-choice initiative petitions aimed to appeal to moderate Missourians and Independents.
There’s also a push to focus the movement’s energy behind the most far-reaching IP proposal. St. Louis City Committeewoman Josie Grillas is encouraging folks to sign a petition that “demands a clean petition for abortion rights on the ballot in 2024!” with the hagtag #MOThanRoe.
“Of 17 proposed ballots claiming to protect abortion in Missouri, only ONE version will create just and equitable systems. We support the CLEAN Missouri ballot version that ensures full bodily autonomy for ALL people without government interference… We must use the power of direct democracy to liberate abortion for ALL Missourians under our state constitution.”
· One small potential problem: Can a “MO than Roe” ballot question can pass in Missouri?
Dems Rally Behind Jacobs
Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern tweeted out pictures of a fundraiser for the Democratic candidate in House 38, Dr. Marty Jacobs. He’s a retired Liberty School District principal. He’ll be taking on Rep. Chris Lonsdale who was unopposed last year. “Not sure the last time we’ve had a house Dem candidate who was so revered!!! Literally had a line out the door to get in!! Chris Lonsdale will be in for one hell of a race.”
· The district leans red: Trump carried House 38 by 6 points in 2020; Parson by 8.
Meyer for Trump in Iowa
Missouri native and Senior TLC Political strategist Alex Meyer has been tasked to help lead Trump's efforts in both Iowa and Missouri, as reported by POLITICO: Trump moves to put the nail in DeSantis’ campaign coffin. Meyer served as Missouri State Director for the RNC during the 2018 cycle when Josh Hawley defeated Claire McCaskill. It's a big get for the Trump team in both states.
Ragain to Empower
Empower Missouri has added Trina Ragain as Lead Policy Strategist. See it here. My accidental love affair with public policy started 12 years ago when I accepted a position with a national non-profit that was described as “75% programmatic and 25% policy-focused”.
Roberts Named to USBC Power List
Sen. Steven Roberts was name to the US Black Chamber’s Power 50 Under 40 list. See it here. The "Power 50 Under 40" presented by Walmart, organized by The U.S. Black Chambers, Inc., is a prestigious recognition that honors the accomplishments of dynamic young Black professionals, innovators, leaders, disruptors, and business visionaries.
Calendar 2024
For those making their calendars for next year, the legislative Spring Break is scheduled for the week of March 18.
eMailbag
On flame-throwing: I will donate $5 to the candidate that poses with a tactical nuclear weapon. Enough with the small arms.
On Doe Run: What is so “infamous” about the Doe Run Company? The 1200 jobs they create in an impoverished part of the state? The nearly billion dollar economic impact they have on the state? The millions of dollars in clean up they have done much of which was of naturally occurring lead?
Lobbyists Registrations
Harrison Hems added SAS Institute Inc.
John Bardgett, Chris Roepe, and Mark Habbas deleted FiscalNote, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from Penn Entertainment (Wyomissing, PA).
Serve Missouri PAC (pro-McCreery) - $8,000 from Invenergy Transmission LLC (Chicago, IL).
NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $7,600 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government PAC.
MoCannTrade PAC - $10,000 from Hayley Patterson.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $10,000 from Nash & Franciskato, L.L.C.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $6,000 from Andrew Gelbach.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Trish Gunby.