MOScout Daily Update: Coming C4 Cycle? - SCOMO Orals Today - Dinkins' Path and more...
1 Big Thing: C4 Cycle Coming?
Republican consultants are looking at 2024 and seeing “C4s” as a potential game-changer in some races.
C4s refers to non-profit organized under the IRS code Section 501 (c)(4), as opposed to the more widely known 501c3.
C4s can engage in partisan activity. But, crucially for some players, they can also keep their donors private. This results in the “dark money” phenomenon.
Republican consultant Jonathan Ratliff talking to Scott Faughn spoke to this. “I think the interesting thing that’s going to shake up this cycle a lot more than people realize … is the amount of money that C4s are going to be putting into these races.” See it here around the 50-minute mark.
Another consultant seconds the prediction: “C4s - presumably funded by unions or super donors - will play a big role in statewide Republican primaries this cycle.”
Outside advocacy groups could divide the candidates between C4-haves and C4-have-nots…
· AG’s race: Because of his ties to the Federalist Society, and endorsement from Club for Growth, folks expect Will Scharf to be the beneficiary of outside groups.
· SOS’ race: Ratliff hints that Sen. Caleb Rowden is lining up support. “I think there’s some pretty significant commitments out there… I believe there are seven -figure commitments that will play a pretty big role.”
And
Ratliff also marked October 11 for Speaker Dean Plocher’s long-expected official announcement that he’s running for lieutenant governor.
Driving the Day: Oral Arguments at SCOMO
Oral arguments before the Missouri Supreme Court start at 9AM today. (You can listen online here).
There are a couple of high-profile cases on the docket…
· St. Louis v State of Missouri alleges Hammerschmidt violation in 2021’s SB 26 (“Officers’ Bill of Right). Building denizens talk a lot about Hammerschmidt during session, but it’s infrequent that it’s resulted in overturned laws. Read the city’s brief here.
· Quintin Lucas v Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick takes aim at 2022’s SJR38 which put a constitutional amendment before voters regarding funding of the KC police force. Lucas claims the fiscal note was insufficient. If it is, can you make that challenge after a vote? And could it overturn the vote? Big questions. Read the mayor’s brief here.
Dinkins to Benefit from AFC?
Republican consultant Gregg Keller predicts on Twitter that Rep. Chris Dinkins will be the beneficiary of pro-educational choice groups like American Federation of Children.
One reader sees similarities between the race brewing in Senate 27 and the Senate 10 race last year. Having the Ed Reform Community in for Dinkins is essential in charting her path to victory against a Cape candidate like Rep. John Voss. As you mentioned, AFC went 4-0 last cycle which included Travis Fitzwater who was also a candidate NOT from the top primary vote producing county in the district.
eMailbag on Ashcroft and IPs
· You are right about that from a standpoint of defeating the IP. Not so sure voters, including pro-life community, are nuanced like that. Strategy and press coverage like this may be smart primary politics, results be damned.
· Ashcroft appears to be joining the “its better to lose loudly than win quietly” caucus of the GOP.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $12,500 from Gregg Smith.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Matthew Lowe.
Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $10,000 from Donald Schlapprizzi.
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $10,000 from GJ Grewe Inc.
Liberty and Justice PAC - $10,000 from NRRM, LLC.
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $18,000 from Another Viceroy PAC.
Nexus PAC - $10,000 from Paric Holdings, Inc. 77 Westport Plaza.
MoCannTrade PAC - $6,000 from Joseph Delia.
Lobbyists Registrations
Garrett Webb added Kill the Fill PAC.
Chris Hankins added Chris Hankins.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Richard Moore, Becky Ruth, David Sweeney, Paul Wagner, and Danielle Finley.