MOScout Daily Update: New Pro-Pereles Ad - Schartner for STL CC - Rex for Schnelting - How to Juice GOTV and more…

Breaking… New Pereles PAC Ad

The pro-Joe Pereles PAC, Fearless PAC, is releasing their latest ad.  It mocks David Gregory’s plan to build a “castle” in Jefferson City, and continues to pummel him on the issue of abortion.

See it here.

And

The Fearless PAC has published portions of what they claim are internal Gregory documents.  See their webpage outlining potential strategies to temper Gregory’s abortion position.

New Anti-Hawley Ad

Patriots Prevail PAC released an ad hitting Senator Josh Hawley for his views on reproductive rights.  Josh Hawley wants control over every party of your life…

Watch it here.

·       This is part of Democrats hammering the abortion issue.  We’ll see in a few weeks if it pays off.

First in MOScout: Pro-Schartner Ad

Protect St. Louis Freedom, a PAC supporting Kevin Schartner, is starting to run ads in St. Louis.  Schartner is a Democrat running for St. Louis County Council, District 6 – which is currently held by Republican Ernie Trakas.  Trakas lost his primary to Michael Archer, and Dems are salivating at a potential pick-up.

See the ad here.

Kevin Schartner is running for St Louis County Council because he believes in putting people over politics. Kevin knows public safety is the number one responsibility of government. That's why the County cops have endorsed him.  Kevin Scharter spent six years on the Melville School Board where he successfully promoted fiscal responsibility and improved academic standards. On the County Council, Kevin will work to lower the cost of living for seniors and promote economic growth for all our families…

One STL Dem explains why it matters…

·       A lot of the state senate races are getting a lot of attention, but a St. Louis Council open seat is a big deal and has a lot of power.

·       Unions are particularly interested in this seat because there’s a strong labor contingent in the district.

·       Doug Beck helped recruit Schartner and his resume is great for the district.

Rex’s Make-Up Money

After sending $150,000 to Rep. Phil Christofanelli’s PAC during the hot primary season, Rex Sinquefield has given a token contribution to Rep. Adam Schnelting’s Protect Our Kids PAC.  The $15,000 check listed in today’s contributions isn’t a large sum from the Republican mega-donor. But it’s an acknowledgment that although Schnelting wasn’t his choice for Senate 23, he’ll likely be a reliable vote for most of Sinquefield’s policy agenda.

Rudi Digs Into Sheriffs’ Retirement System Check

MOIndy’s Rudi Keller digs into the campaign contribution from the Missouri Sheriff’s Retirement System.  Read it here.  The system’s executive director, Melissa Lorts, says they received oral OKs from an attorney and the Missouri Ethic Commission to make the contributions, and that the board voted on the action.

·       The board: J. Kent Oberkrom (Chairman), Jim Arnott, Kenny Jones, Dwayne Carey, and Kevin Bond.

Webber for Nurrenbern

For all of Stephen Webber’s Achilles-sulking-at-the-boats bit because Senate Dems sold out Boone County last session, he’s pitching in to raise money for Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern in Senate 17….

The Science of GOTV

From Center for Campaign Innovation…

As the weather changes and campaigns make the transition to getting out the vote, it’s worth a quick refresher on what academic research on voter turnout reveals:

·       Door-to-door Canvassing – Studies place the effect of door knocking between 4-9 percentage points, depending on the circumstances.

·       Relational Organizing – Getting voters to reach out to their friends, family, and neighbors about voting can increase turnout by 6-8 percentage points.

·       Plan to Vote – Voters who made a detailed plan to cast their ballot saw a 4.1 percentage point increase in turnout compared to those who didn’t. For voters who live by themselves, the effect jumped to 9.1 percentage points.

·       Mail – Mail remains surprisingly effective with a 2-4 point increase in turnout, especially when tactics like social pressure are applied.

·       Phones – Live calls are worth an estimated 2-3 point boost, but robocalls have shown no measurable effect on turnout.

·       Texting – Reminders to vote via text can boost turnout by 0.5 - 1 points.

·       Digital Advertising – Similar to texting, the effect on turnout has been measured at 0.5 - 1 points.

In close elections, campaigns need to deploy every method at their disposal, but even so, no amount of turnout can overcome macro political trends like the economy or demography.

Malek and Bailey Heart A7

There hasn’t been much talk about Amendment 7 on next month’s ballot.  But Treasurer Vivek Malek and Attorney General Andrew Bailey will attend and speak at a press conference in support of Amendment 7 today at 10AM in the Capitol rotunda.

Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: Make the Constitution consistent with state law by only allowing citizens of the United States to vote; Prohibit the ranking of candidates by limiting voters to a single vote per candidate or issue; and Require the plurality winner of a political party primary to be the single candidate at a general election?

Village of Leslie

Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick released an audit which “details the Village of Leslie's struggles to perform essential duties such as preparing annual budgets and filing adequate financial reports, and failure to provide sufficient oversight for the city sewer system. The audit, which was requested by the citizens of the Village of Leslie, gives the municipality a rating of ‘Poor.’”

See the audit here.

·       The audit notes how the Village of Leslie has not prepared annual budgets for the years ended March 31, 2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021. The members of the village's Board of Trustees indicated they were not aware a budget needed to be prepared annually.

·       The village did not timely file its financial reports for the years ended March 31, 2021, and 2020. Section 105.145.9, RSMo, requires political subdivisions to be fined $500 per day for missing filing deadlines, and as a result of the village's failure to timely file financial reports it owes $362,500 in fines… The DOR further indicated if the village imposes such a tax in the future, the DOR would begin recouping the fine from any tax distributions the DOR would make to the village.

Leslie is represented by Sen. Ben Brown and Rep. Mike McGirl.

Lobbyists Registrations

Jay Hahn and Ryan DeBoef added City of Strafford.

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $1,225,000 from Sixteen Thirty Fund (Washington, DC).

Yes on 5 - $275,000 from RIS Inc.

Yes on 5 - $210,604 from Osage Landing Development Company.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $200,000 from ACLU of Missouri Foundation.

Vote "NO" on 3 - $100,000 from Missouri Leadership Fund.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Missouri Alliance PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Hurlbert for Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Patterson for Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Drury Southwest, Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Hausman for Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from 964 PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,150 from Committee to Elect Cameron Bunting Parker.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from MOCS Action.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $12,175 from HNTB Missouri PAC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Show Me Organics Inc.

MO Republican Party - $25,000 from American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe).

Missouri Freedom PAC - $500,000 from Republican Attorneys General Association (Washington, DC).

Protect our Kids PAC (pro-Schnelting) - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Heart of SGF PAC (pro-Stinnett) - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Protect Missouri Freedom - $100,000 from Missouri Democracy Project PAC.

Osete for Judge - $17,000 from Jesus Osete.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Missouri Soybean Association.

Paladin PAC - $100,000 from J&J Ventures Missouri, LLC.

Paladin PAC - $10,000 from H. Betti Industries, Inc. (Carlstadt, NJ).

International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC - Federal Committee - $40,932 from International Brotherhood of Teamsters DRIVE Committee (Washington, DC).

Freedom Principle MO Missouri First PAC - $7,282 from Christopher Baker.

St Louis County Democratic Central Committee - $10,000 from Friends of Wesley Bell.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $50,000 from Langdon & Emison, LLC.

HBS MO State PAC - $10,500 from Tenaska Clear Creek Wind LLC (Omaha, NE).

MO Cable PAC - $16,000 from Charter Communications.

Justin Aldred For Boone - $25,000 from Justin Aldred.

MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $6,000 from Kempton and Russell, LLC.

GO Independence - $5,001 from Mid America Carpenters Regional Council Mo-KS PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Denny Hoskins, Roger Wilson, Terry Jarrett, Bruce Holt, and Jack Coatar.

MOScout Schedule

Long weekend ahead for MOScout.  No editions Saturday, Sunday or Monday (Columbus Day).