MOScout Daily Update: October Fundraising Reports - Gross, Phifer Outraise GOP Opponents But Does It Matter? - IE PAC Update - Top COH PACs and more…

Here’s a run-down of the October fundraising reports from last night.   Aside from the large contributions we see daily going into PACs, the final look inside campaign committees before the November election will come with the 8-Day reports, due Monday October 28.

·       Hyperlinks lead you to the actual filing, if you wish to dig further. Republicans are listed first throughout the report.

Statewide Races

With the primary behind them, most Republican candidates took their foot off the fundraising gas pedal and have coasted. The conventional wisdom – which has played out accordingly in the last few cycles – is that Missouri is red enough that statewide Republicans are assured victory in November.  Dems showed spunk.  Crystal Quade put up a good quarter.  Elad Gross and Barbara Phifer outraised their GOP counterparts (in candidate committees, not PACs). Still, the feeling is that the cake is already baked for them.

Governor’s Race

Mike Kehoe raised $757,553; and had $1,043,589 on-hand.

·       American Dream PAC raised $ 1,173,400; and had $1,394,381 on-hand.

Crystal Quade raised $424,421; and had $527,716 on-hand.

·       Crystal PAC raised $7,000; and had $25,169 on-hand.

Lieutenant Governor          

Dave Wasinger raised $160,780; and had $169,317 on-hand.

·       Missouri First Conservative PAC raised $10,000 and had $30,407 on-hand.

Richard Brown has not yet filed his October report.

·       Richard Brown Missouri Forward filed Limited activity.

Attorney General     

Andrew Bailey raised $164,968; and had $145,473 on-hand.

·       Liberty and Justice PAC raised $602,425; and had $696,891 on-hand.

Elad Gross raised $181,612; and had $140,685 on-hand.

Secretary of State    

Denny Hoskins raised $37,054; and had $51,274 on-hand.

·       Old Drum Conservative PAC raised $33,850; and had $71,373 on-hand.

Democrat Barbara Phifer raised $101,932; and had $114,228 on-hand.

Safe Missouri PAC raised $15,000; and has $15,000 on-hand.

Treasurer      

Vivek Malek raised $34,075; and had $32,124 on-hand.

·       American Promise PAC raised $4,350; and had $ 11,112 on-hand.

Democrat Mark Osmack raised $11,340; and had $13,449 on-hand.

Senate Battleground Races

Democrats have done a good job fundraising in these critical battleground districts.  They hold substantial cash on-hand leads in Senate 11, 15, and 17.  There will clearly be outside money coming in to boost both sides of these race.  But it’s a good sign for Dems that they’re tapping into enthusiasm and raising strong sums.  Additionally, the Senate Dems campaign committee has a modest COH advantage over the Senate Republicans ($980K vs $788K).  I think Dems +1 would be a reasonable guess for this cycle.  That’d be Dems taking Senate 19, holding Senate 17, and either holding Senate 11 or taking Senate 15.

·       I don’t think Senate 1 (Beck for re-election) or Senate 23 (Eigel termed) are legitimately contestable flips. And future Minority Leader Doug Beck’s behavior indicates as much,  He sent three checks for $60,000 each to Senate 11, 15, and 17.  That says to me that he feels he’s safe and that Senate 23 is too much of a long-shot. 

Senate 1

Robert Crump raised $8,000; and had $344 on-hand.

Doug Beck raised $92,655 and had $535,555 on-hand.

·       Doug PAC raised 123,350and had $460,935 on-hand

Senate 11

Joe Nicola raised $47,145; and had $40,057 on-hand.

·       Truth and Light PAC raised $15,100; and had $12,690 on-hand.

Robert Sauls raised $100,051; and had $281,459 on-hand.

Independence Leadership PAC raised $96,450; and had $294,187 on-hand

Senate 15

David Gregory raised $56,890; and had $45,133 on-hand.

·       Show Me Growth PAC raised $55,600; and had $44,986 on-hand.

Joe Pereles raised $172,373; and had $777,332 on-hand.

·       Fearless PAC raised $118,300; and had $225,883

Senate 17

Jerry Nolte raised $30,550; and had $80,939 on-hand.

Clay County Commonsense raised $15,001 and had $22,851 on-hand.

Maggie Nurrenbern raised $157,115; and had $168,456 on-hand.

·       Northland Forward raised 135,100; and had $214,047 on-hand

Senate 23       

Adam Schnelting raised $57,713; and had $97,157 on-hand.

·       Protect Our Kids PAC raised $76,500; and had $107,094 on-hand.

Matt Williams raised $23,622; and had $37,627 on-hand.

House Battleground Districts

The House fundraising totals are less predictive than the statewide numbers or the Senate race numbers. 

·       First, hard work and door-knocking can overcome a swamp of mailers.  The small districts mean that voters can meet and know the candidates.  Media is much less effective in changing minds of folks who have met the candidate themselves.

·       Second, the House Republican Campaign Committee is a juggernaut ($1.4M COH) which can and will come into close races and dump a lop-sided amount of resources in.

House 12

Mike Jones raised $16,575; and had $61,801 on-hand.

Rep. Jamie Johnson raised $26,355; and had $51,224 on-hand.

House 17

Rep. Bill Allen raised $12,250; and had $33,229 on-hand.

Shirley Mata raised $30,516; and had $81,749 on-hand.

House 21

Marjain Breitenbach raised $2,185; and had $2,094 on-hand.

Will Jobe raised $19,830; and had $31,087 on-hand.

House 29

Robert Bruette raised $26; and had $210 on-hand.

Rep. Aaron Crossley raised $33,556; and had $78,339 on-hand.

House 30

Speaker-elect JP raised $114,215; and had $362,899 on-hand.

Kevin Grover raised $13,118; and had $35,775 on-hand.

House 34

JC Crossley raised $4,384; and had $17,737 on-hand.

Rep. Kemp Stricker raised $31,154; and had $105,498 on-hand.

House 38

Rep. Chris Lonsdale raised $7,404; and had $52,580 on-hand.

Martin Jacobs raised $11,403; and had $44,851 on-hand.

House 96

Rep. Brad Christ raised $39,850; and had $91,596 on-hand.

Leslie Derrington raised $31,218; and had $ 23,028 on-hand.

House 100

Rep. Phil Oehlerking raised $13,150; and had $38,048 on-hand.

Colin Lovett raised $46,951; and had $80,639 on-hand.

House 101

Rep. Ben Keathley raised $21,720; and had $65,671 on-hand.

Jacqueline Cotton raised $11,796; and had $24,679 on-hand.

House 105

Colin Wellenkamp raised $2,950; and had $9,128 on-hand.

Ron Odenthal raised $11,764; and had $16,690 on-hand.

House 136

Jim Robinette raised $23,004 and had $ 54,159 on-hand.

Rep. Stephanie Hein raised $ 25,967; and had $100,631 on-hand.

Nuggets from Filings…

·       Dave Wasinger’s biggest expense this quarter… paying himself back.  Self-funding the primary, he put in $2.6 million of his own money.  This quarter he raised $160K, and used $125K of that to pay down that loan.

·       David Gregory’s PAC paid a $8,000 “primary win bonus” to its treasurer Mike Leara.  Leara is the executive director of the Missouri Gaming Commission.  Chuckling MOScouter: “Director of Missouri Gaming Hits Jackpot!”

·       I was surprised that the pro-Dean Plocher PAC, Missouri United, was among those that hadn’t filed as I scanned reports this morning. After all the grief that PAC gave him last year, why miss a deadline?  File early and be done, or terminate the damn thing.

Top 25 Committees, by COH

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-choice campaign) - $10,766,055

Winning for Missouri Education (sports betting campaign) - $2,500,015

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (higher minimum wage) - $2,402,298

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $1,461,561

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $1394381

Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson)    1176417

Luetkemeyer For Missouri - $1,141,879

Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe - $1,043,590

Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $1,003,554

MAJORITY FORWARD (Senate Dems) - $980,984

Missouri Voter Project - State PAC (progressive donors) - $915,991

RightPath PAC (Wahington University advocates) - $914,884

Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $803,012

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee (Senate GOP) - $ 788,903

Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council MO/KS PAC - $786,767

Pereles for Missouri - $777,333

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) 696892

Lucas For KC - $676,777

Truth in Campaigns (pro-Rizzo) - $593,372

Beck For Missouri - $535,555

MoCannTrade PAC - $530,251

Citizens For Crystal Quade - $527,716

BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $501,625

MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $489,249

Pipefitters Assoc Local #533 - $488,457

IE PAC List Updated

I’ve updated the Independent Expenditure PACs.   Find them here.  A couple were terminated, and I added several new ones.  For those that hadn’t filed by the deadline, I’ve referenced their last filing and date.

·       I call these Independent Expenditure PACS because while the politicians can raise money – in unlimited sums, unrestricted by the caps imposed on their candidate committees – they cannot direct how the money is spent.  Of course, please let me know any that I’m missing and I will add them into the next update.

$5K+ Contributions

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $10,000 from Comcast Financial Agency (Philadelphia, PA).

Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $100,000 from Missouri Wins Investor Network.

Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $100,000 from Missouri Wins Investor Network.

Fearless PAC (pro-Pereles) - $150,000 from Missouri Voter Project - State PAC.

Show Me Growth PAC (pro-David Gregory) - $50,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Clay County Commonsense PAC (pro-Nolte)- $15,000 from Jackson County Leadership PAC (pro-Cierpiot).

Northland Strong PAC (pro-Nurrenbern) - $15,000 from PCA-KC, LLC.

STL Democratic Coalition (pro-Steven Roberts) - $10,000 from Catalyst PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Oracle America, Inc (Redwood City, CA).

MR PAC - $20,000 from Schnuck Markets, Inc.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rita Heard Days, and Antonio French.