MOScout Weekender: Trump up 14 in MO - Hallway Picks Their Upset Guesses - Who Won the Week and more…
Remington/MOScout Poll: Final Statewide
Survey conducted October 28 through October 29, 2024. 721 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full report here.
Q1: Candidates in the November General Election for President are Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Kamala Harris, Libertarian Chase Oliver, and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 54%
Kamala Harris: 40%
Chase Oliver: 1%
Jill Stein: 1%
Undecided: 4%
Q2: Candidates in the November General Election for Governor of Missouri are Republican Mike Kehoe, Democrat Crystal Quade, Libertarian Bill Slantz, and Green Party Candidate Paul Lehmann. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Kehoe: 51%
Crystal Quade: 40%
Bill Slantz: 1%
Paul Lehmann: 0%
Undecided: 7%
Q3: Constitutional Amendment 3 would establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives. From what you know about Amendment 3, do you plan to vote in favor of it; or against it?
In favor: 49%
Against: 44%
Undecided: 7%
· Keep in mind: Over the years, our polling has often understated the support for ballot initiatives. I think over the phone more complex questions tend to elicit Nos.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Upset Guesses
I asked lobbyists, “What’s the best surprise upset bet for next week?” 20 replies…
RESULTS
1. Kunce over Hawley (US Senate)… 15%
2. Osmack over Malek (Treasurer)… 0%
3. Williams over Schnelting (Senate 23)… 20%
4. Grover over Patterson (House 30)… 20%
5. Choose your own… 45%
Sample of Comments
· Senate 15 - Joe P
· Sauls over Nicola
· HDCC only picks up one. In a year where they should be able to pick up 7 seats, their lack of fundraising and organization will yield few seats.
· Pereles over Gregory and Sauls over Nicola
· The surprise upset was self-delivered by conservative groups and individuals already fighting with Patterson because of his statement on the abortion amendment. A real push somebody into the water instead of pulling them into the boat moment.
· Amendment 2 loses
· Patterson going down would have the largest ripple effect.
· [Grover over Patterson] The other 3 would be incredible upsets.
· Shirley Mata over Bill Allen.
· [Grover over Patterson] Weird dynamics in that race, makes for the most likely for surprise (though not at all likely)
· [Kunce over Hawley] Wishful thinking bet
· Sauls beats No Exceptions Nicola.
· Nolte over Nurrenburn!
Who Won the Week?
Hannah Beers Sutton– The 30-year-old is managing a budget of millions, and juggling the anxious demands of dozens of politicos. Win, lose or draw on Tuesday, Sutton could probably hang out a shingle on Wednesday morning as one of the top female political consultants in the state.
Kara Corches – Well-liked in the halls of the Capitol, Korches was name head of the Missouri Chamber of Commerce – the first woman to lead the organization in its 101-year history.
Adam Kazda – Fulfills every boy’s dream by landing a job with Anheuser Busch.
Claire Bean – Daughter of Sen. Jason Bean literally won the week by being the Class 1 State Champion in tennis.
Find a downloadable version here.
24Hr Expenditures
House Republican Campaign Committee
House 16 (Defense Chris Brown) - $568
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee (Senate GOP)
Senate 11 - $4,200
Senate 15 - $40,000
Senate 17 - $20,840
$5K+ Contributions
Winning for Missouri Education - $333,333 from St. Louis City SC.
Winning for Missouri Education - $333,333 from St. Louis Cardinals, LLC.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $5,780 from Sixteen Thirty Fund (Washington, DC).
Vote No on 3 - $10,000 from John Brunner.
Yes on 5 - $66,884 from Bally's Corp.
Yes on 5 - $62,303 from RIS Inc.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.
Northland Forward (pro-Nurrenbern) - $25,000 from UAW V CAP (Detriot, MI).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $5,001 from NOVA PAC.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Ironworkers Political Education Fund (Washington, DC).
RSLC-Missouri PAC - $5,650 from Republican State Leadership Committee (Washington, DC).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Peggy McGaugh, Joe Bruns, Richard Craighead, and Shane Kinne.