MOScout Daily Update: The Next Tax Cuts - The Next Hanaway - The Next GOP Party Chair - New 2026 Committees and more…
Quick Friday update…
Tax Cut 3.0?
Among the priorities discussed at the Republican Winter Caucus was another tax cut. This has been a regular Republican agenda item for years.
Missouri’s income tax rate is set to be sliced another .1% in January to 4.7%. The income tax cutting began in 2014 under Speaker Tim Jones when the state income tax rate was 6%. Governor Jay Nixon vetoed the cut – which was contingent on revenue growth – but the legislature overrode his veto.
The formula of phasing in tiny cuts, triggered by increased revenue has generally been successful. It eases some concern of Democrats who worry about a drastic reduction in revenue impacting state budgets. And Republicans understand that the slow march of inflation makes the tax cuts inevitable.
The downside is that the micro-cuts have negligible economic benefit. No one changes their behavior based on .1% of their income.
· Governor-elect Mike Kehoe campaigned saying he wanted to get Missouri’s rate to 0%. The question is whether to continue to the strategy of phased-in slices, or do something bold. Tepid state revenue numbers and political expediency would argue for the former.
GOP Party Drama Coming?
One insider says that “[Bill] Eigle making calls to prospectively run for party chair.” If true, it could foreshadow a bit of GOP drama.
The current Republican Party Chair, Nick Myers, isn’t running for re-election, but traditionally the Party would defer to the new governor. That means folks will be looking to Mike Kehoe to give the nod to someone to run with his support. The election will be in January.
· The last Republican get together devolved into a spew of finger pointing and lawsuits.
The Next Hanaway?
Could the 2024 class be the one that returns a woman to the Speaker’s chair? One Hallway denizen tells me that there are a few hard-charging women to watch in the freshman class…
· Carolyn Caton – She took out Chris Sander from the right but is already positioning herself to be a no-nonsense pragmatist.
· Cathy Jo Loy – She’s already making waves with her transgender bathroom rule change. It’s not the kind of thing the chamber of commerce would love but it does play well to the base of the caucus. And chamber types will like her ed reform bona fides.
· Becky Laubinger – She's a staunch pro-life advocate and well-spoken. A little more low-key than the other two, but that could work in her favor.
Spire Eyes Climate Change Impact
Spire released their earnings on Wednesday. Their Integrated Resource Plan acknowledges the reality of climate change…
Just like the rest of the world, Spire is seeing the effects of a warming climate. This trend can be shown by simply plotting the annual Heating Degree Days (HDDs) over the last 20 years, ending in calendar 2023, with a trendline. As shown in the charts below, the slope of the trendline is negative in both regions (East and West). While this warming trend is important to note, ultimately as a natural gas utility provider, we must be prepared to meet peak hourly demand, and temperature extremes and winter storms are still prevalent and occurring.
2026 Committees
Shante Duncan formed a campaign committee to run for Senate 14 (Williams termed). See the filing here.
Rep. Louis Riggs amended his committee to run for Senate 18 (O’Laughlin termed). See the filing here.
· These were both expected.
MOSERS: No Wild West Campaign Cash
Post-Dispatch reports that MOSERS (the Missouri State Employees’ Retirement System) “board of trustees revised the executive director’s responsibilities to include a directive ensuring that no money in the system is used to support or oppose any ballot measure or candidate.”
· The Missouri Sheriffs’ Retirement System raised eyebrows in October when it made a $30,000 contribution to a political action committee promoting Amendment 6 on the Nov. 5 ballot.
Free Ridin’ Consequences
News Tribune reports that there’s an effort to reverse Missouri’s law allowing motorcyclists to ride without helmets.
· Since the changes went into effect, there have been more than 500 motorcyclist fatalities across the state, according to the Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT).
· In the same time frame, there have been a 50 percent increase in head injuries and a 64 percent increase in patients with critical injuries from motorcycle accidents documented by EMS workers, according to research from the Time Critical Diagnosis system in the Department of Health and Senior Services (DHSS).
· Maureen Cunningham, executive director of the Brain Injury Association of Missouri, said she's followed the data showing a dramatic rise in deaths and serious injuries as it's been released over the past few years.
· Cunningham, along with other health and safety experts in the state, formed the Helmet Law Repeal Coalition in August with one goal in mind, bringing back the universal requirement.
Haywood Passes
A fierce civil rights and social justice advocate. A bold community and government leader. A persistent champion of education. Not to mention a loving wife, mother, grandmother and great-grandmother. The Honorable Esther Haywood, of St. Louis, Missouri, was all that and much more before she passed from this life on Saturday, November 16, 2024. She was 84.
A public viewing will be held from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Sunday, November 24 at Murchison Tabernacle C.M.E. Church, 7629 Natural Bridge Road, Saint Louis, Missouri. The funeral services are scheduled for Monday, November 25 at Prince of Peace Church at 9350 Natural Bridge Road, St. Louis. The visitation will start at 10 a.m. and the celebration of life follows at 11 a.m.
· Among Haywood’s many accomplishments, she was a state representative from 2000 – 2008.
Lobbyist Registrations
Amy Beck added Missouri Psychological Association.
Eapen Thampy deleted MO Hemp Trade Association.
$5K+ Contributions
NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $10,000 from CARDS Holdings, Inc (Tonitown, AR).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $17,500 from Hurlbert for Missouri.
SEIU HCII Missouri PAC - $23,000 from SEIU MO/KS State Council.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Marc Ellinger, and Therese Sander.