MOScout Daily Update: Shifting Biz Alliances - Shrinking State Budget - Meet Infra - Possible Kehoe Moves - Rogers for Mayor? and more…

1 Big Thing: Changing Business Alliances

Missouri Independent reported on a group of business organizations which filed suit to reverse the voter-approved higher minimum wage and mandatory paid sick leave initiative petition.

It’s a note-worthy story for how it could impact workers and the business environment.  Read it here.

But I think there are also two subtler stories in the lawsuit, indicating shifts occurring in the hallway.  One recent, and one longer-term.

AIM and MOChamber playing well together.  Two of the parties in the suit are Associated Industries of Missouri, and Missouri Chamber of Commerce. It’s the first time in my memory that the two business-advocacy groups partnered on an issue.  Sure, they’ve been on the same side before, but they always seemed to be elbowing to lead the parade. 

It appears that the change in leadership at MOChamber has allowed a reset in their relations.  For whatever reason former Chamber CEO Dan Mehan and AIM’s President Ray McCarty never hit it off, or were naturally competitive or who knows.  But Kara Corches’ ascension to the Chamber’s top spot appears to have conjured a rapprochement between the two organizations, heralding perhaps a more collaborative alliance in their respective legislative agendas.

Coastal Cities Sit Out the Lawsuit.  The other notable aspect of the suit was the absence of the big chambers of commerce from the state’s economic engines in St. Louis and Kansas City.  This shift has been underway for a while.  Greater St. Louis, the umbrella St. Louis business organization, and Greater KC Chamber of Commerce, have been more willing in recent years to weigh in on societal issues, extending their portfolio away from traditional business issues only.  On the one hand, this makes sense.  Their members include Fortune 500 companies and multi-nationals for whom attracting and retaining a talented workforce is a top concern.  Ultra-conservative social policies hamper recruiting efforts and are a legitimate business concern.  On the other hand, the business communities of the cities are increasingly seen by the rural conservative majorities in the legislature as left-leaning.  That’s undermined their effectiveness.

Joining this lawsuit would not have been popular with their communities, and I assume with their members.  But their absence highlights the growing divide on some agenda priorities within the business advocacy organizations.

CRE Sees Flatlined State Revenue

Press release: Governor-Elect Mike Kehoe announced Missouri’s Consensus Revenue Estimate (CRE) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026.  The annual CRE is a figure established by state budget experts and is one of the basic assumptions used by the Governor and legislative leaders to build and balance Missouri’s budget.

Net general revenue collections in FY26 are expected to be $13.56 billion. This represents a 1.6 percent net general revenue growth over the revised CRE for FY25.

The revised estimate for the current fiscal year (FY25) assumes $13.35 billion in net general revenue collections, which represents a 0.6 percent decline compared to FY24.

What It Means

Assuming the FY 2026 number is hit, it will only be 2.5% above the revenue collected three years ago in FY 2023 ($13.23 billion).  And remember, these aren’t inflation-adjusted numbers.  That’s far below the inflation rate, which was running 8% during part of FY23, and has been 3-ish% annually since then.

In real dollar terms, the state budget is shrinking. That’s a prospect amenable to conservatives who would like to drive efficiencies in government operations.  It’s less welcome to liberals who will see it as a strategy to undermine critical programs.

Imagining the Kehoe Chessboard

Governor-elect Mike Kehoe is known for making persuasive arguments to help waffling legislators see things his way.  Starting next month, he’ll also have the levers of the governor’s office to finesse some movement.  Here are two top priorities of his which seem teed up for some helpful nudging…

·       St. Louis Police takeover – The most entrenched critic of the proposal to have the state take over the St. Louis City Police Department has been Sen. Karla May.  But it’s hard to lead a filibuster when you’re not in the chamber.  One MOScouter imagines the governor’s office finding a job for May, who is in the final two years of her final term and is probably thinking about life after the Senate.  An opportune gubernatorial appointment could answer that question.

·       Educational Choice – It’s unclear where the Kehoe education agenda is going.  It could be a big push for a straight open enrollment bill or even a full-blown voucher system.  Regardless, the speed at which any changes in education can be made is ultimately at the speed of DESE (Department of Elementary and Secondary Education).  Commissioner Karla Eslinger and Kehoe have a good relationship from their time in the Senate.  But I could imagine Team Kehoe keeping their powder dry on State Board of Education appointments to wait-and-see how things progress.  If they feel there’s a lack of urgency, they could make a wholesale change there.  Three members of that board are serving on expired terms right now, with a fourth coming up in July. 

Rumorville: Rogers for Mayor?

Tipster says that Councilmember Wes Rogers was tapped to welcome the freshman tour to KC rather than Mayor Quinton Lucas.    Rogers is exploring running for Mayor in 2027…

Plocher Whistleblower Suit Dismissed

Post-Dispatch reports that “Cole County Judge Brian Stumpe, in a three-sentence decision, signaled he agreed with attorneys for Speaker Dean Plocher, who was accused by Chief House Clerk Dana Rademan Miller of mismanagement, abuse of authority, violations of policy, wasting of public resources and retaliation. Plocher’s handpicked chief of staff, former Speaker Rod Jetton, was dropped from the case earlier. Stumpe’s ruling also dismissed the Missouri House of Representatives from the case as well.  Attorneys for Miller did not immediately respond to a request for comment. It is expected the decision will be appealed, but both Miller and Plocher are set to leave state government in January because of retirement and term limits, respectively…”

Meet Infra

Press release: The Missouri Limestone Producers Association (MLPA), a cornerstone of the state’s infrastructure industry, is proud to announce its rebranding to “Infra.”

Why the Change? The new name and brand represent a strategic shift to include and celebrate all facets of infrastructure development. The previous name, Missouri Limestone Producers Association, did not fully accommodate all crushed stone and sand producers, vital segments of the construction aggregates industry. By evolving into "Infra," the association modernizes its identity and broadens its appeal to align with the needs of members, legislators, the public, and future workforce leaders.

Economic Impact of Infra’s Members The work of Infra’s members contributes significantly to Missouri’s economy. Missouri is the third largest producer of aggregates nationally and the largest on a per capita basis. The limestone and sand industries directly support thousands of jobs, from extraction to transportation, and generate billions of dollars in economic activity annually. The materials extracted by the association’s members are essential to building and maintaining infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and public buildings that are the backbone of the state’s economy. This rebrand reinforces the association’s commitment to supporting these industries and driving future economic growth…

 “This rebrand is more than a name change,” said Chris Williams, 2024 Association Board President. “As ‘Infra,’ we’re embracing a broader mission to support our members and the communities they serve. We’re stepping into a leadership role that goes beyond materials to shape Missouri’s infrastructure future.”

·       New website coming soon here.

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Parson announced four appointments…

·       Kenneth "Ken" Cox, of Gerald, was appointed Franklin County Commissioner.

·       Rhonda Denman, of Fredericktown, was appointed Madison County Public Administrator.

·       Gayle Linneman, of Blackwater, was appointed Cooper County Assessor.

·       Dr. Case Ruckman, of Albany, was appointed Gentry County Coroner.

eMailbag

Novel idea for Regulars and Conservatives…Try this: Learn to debate the issues.  Understand the discipline of applying principles to the policy and attacking the message not the messenger.  Sound really 1990’s? Yes.  Any R who does it on either side and gets their message out, wins. You doubt me? Three words: Governor Mike Kehoe.

$5K+ Contributions

Shamrock PAC - $10,000 from Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action.

Murphy for Mayor - $25,000 from Citizens for a Better Columbia.

Lobbyist Registrations

Scott Penman, Kaycee Nail, Madison Eacret, and Sarah Wood Martin added Missouri Coalition of Recovery Support Providers (MCRSP).

Neal English added State Shield Action. 

Ron Hicks added Fire Palace.

Rowland Frederick Howard added Tina Cole.

Sarah Wood Martin deleted The Hertz Corporation, Mercy Healthcare Systems, and Netflix.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Noel Torpey, Celeste Rueter, Sal Martinez, Chris Girouard, and Sreenu Dandamudi.