MOScout Weekender: Poll on Pre-filed Bills… Guns, Tort Reform, Deregulation, Charter School CON - Hallway on Sparks - WWTW and more…
Remington/MOScout Poll: Selected Pre-Filed Bills
Survey conducted December 10 through December 12, 2024. 604 likely General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match turnout demographics. Margin of Error is +/-4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full report here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Parson’s job performance as governor?
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 33%
Not sure: 20%
I will now read you a series of descriptions regarding legislation that is under consideration in the Missouri legislature. After hearing each description, please indicate if you would agree or disagree with the proposed legislation.
Q2: Senate Bill 177 would require charter schools to obtain a certificate of need from the State Board of Education in order to operate. Would you say you agree or disagree with Senate Bill 177?
Agree: 45%
Disagree: 30%
Not sure: 25%
Q3: Under current law personal injury lawsuits may be filed within five years of the incident. House Bill 68 would reduce that to two years. Would you say you agree or disagree with House Bill 68?
Agree: 41%
Disagree: 49%
Not sure: 10%
Q4: House Bill 319 requires a state agency to repeal two existing rules before enacting a new one. Would you say you agree or disagree with House Bill 319?
Agree: 38%
Disagree: 31%
Not sure: 31%
Q5: Under current law, political subdivisions can prohibit the open carrying of firearms. Senate Bill 74 would repeal that power. Would you say you agree or disagree with Senate Bill 74?
Agree: 42%
Disagree: 45%
Not sure: 13%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Sparks Vote Count
I asked lobbyists, “How many votes will Rep. Justin Sparks get in his bid to become House Speaker?” 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. He will drop out before the vote… 17.4%
2. Less than 10… 73.9%
3. 10 – 20… 8.7%
4. 20 – 40… 0%
5. 40 – 80… 0%
6. He will win… 0%
Sample of Comments
· He will not drop only because he wants to put the caucus in a tough spot. If you vote for Patterson, you’re part of the swamp. If you vote for Sparks, good luck getting a win for your constituents. It is a lose-lose for rank-and-file House members.
· He probably drops out due to lack of support but the thing to monitor is the Trump grassroots activity, which is much more organized than ever before, if he is able to tap into that machine, there's some opportunity for him to make waves. Either way, this approach to drag R's further to the right is here to stay.
· Here's the difference between Sparks and the freedom/conservative caucus in the Senate. In the Senate, they helped those candidates get elected. What has Sparks done to get to get house members elected? Nothing. On the flip side, both Riley and Patterson through HRCC are returning a super majority. Why would freshmen and returning members throw that away and give the speaker the middle finger? Patterson by a million.
· He’s gonna drop out considering he has two votes - himself and Mazzie.
· He won’t have the votes and will save face. Unless he can get folks on some sort of record with crazy MRL.
· Under 10, maybe we will have a better idea of how many "anonymous" members of the freedom caucus there are...
· I suspect Freedom Caucus members are quietly praying he drops so they don't have to choose.
· I think maybe 2-3
Who Won the Week?
Mike Kehoe and Andrew Bailey – Their 30-Day After campaign finance reports show both with over $1 million cash on-hand. That’s the sort of early war-chest that will dissuade any would-be 2028 primary challengers from even dreaming about it.
Henrio Thelemaque – Announces hiring of Daris Davis as he continues to grow The Thelemaque Group.
Ed Martin – Trump’s pick to be the OMB chief of staff. Martin may finally have found a workplace where wreaking havoc and creating controversy are celebrated talents.
Infra Missouri – With a rebrand underway, the Limestone Producers Association is trying to make crushed stone sexy again.
Find a downloadable version here.
eMailbag on Central Committees
I think it is really important to understand what the central committees do and do not do. Clearly we are seeing a bunch of central committees believing that they have influence over the electoral process. They have absolutely no bearing on the electoral process outside of the Senate committee's choosing a candidate when there is a vacancy. The county Central committees are assembled with the furthest right and furthest left individuals of their respected parties. In the case of the Republican Central committees, they are almost always comprised of individuals who could not get elected themselves. In fact, most of the time these Central committee members are appointed to the position because no one knows what township they live in. If only one candidate files for the committee person position, there isn’t even an election.
Missouri does not use township form of government for anything outside of electing, committeemen and committee women. The township divisions in outstate Missouri are outdated and have no relevance in modern day government. It is no wonder then that only party insiders and the most radicalized in their party are the ones who seek out being committee members.
If you ask the average Republican or Democrat who their Central committee man or woman is, chances are they have never met them. These are Fringe members of the party that serve on the central committees.
These endorsements from Central committees are absolutely pointless outside of a few media headlines. [Jon]Patterson is in no way shape or form in trouble.
$5K+ Contributions
Yes on 5 - $6,600 from Bally's Corp (Providence, RI).
Clay County Commonsense PAC - $5,001 from Elect Republicans.
NOCO United Professional FF PAC - $12,635 from Florissant Professional Firefighters.
1776 PAC - $6,500 from Missouri Leadership Fund.
Missouri Leadership Fund - $10,000 from Club Fitness.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Cheryl Dillard.
Sunday: Ric Telhorst.