MOScout Weekender: Lincoln Days Talk - New Statewide Republican Poll - Hallway on 2024 and more...
Lincoln Days Talk
No blockbuster news out of Lincoln Days. The biggest talk was about what people believe is coming next week…
· Former Sen. Kurt Schaefer is said to be prepping an announcement to enter CD-3 next week. He was working the event, but only smiled in answer to my question.
· Sen. Lincoln Hough told Kurt Erickson that he’ll be announcing for LG next week.
· And Taylor Burks, who I didn’t see yesterday (but may well have been at the event), is said to be prepping an announcement as soon as Monday for CD-3.
Other bits…
· Former Rep. Sara Walsh, was working the pro-life table with “Decline to Sign” stop signs. She’s passing on CD-3.
· David Martin had a table. He’s a Republican running in Senate 11 where Sen. John Rizzo is termed. That creates a 3-way Republican primary (Rep. Aaron McMullins, and Joe Nicola). The winner will face Rep. Robert Sauls.
· And Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway announced for Senate 3 (Gannon retiring). That’s now a 3-way primary as well with Rep. Mike Henderson and John Hewkin) “A true conservative Republican, Buchheit-Courtway brings a unique combo of real life experience and a passion for serving her community to her campaign. As state representative, she has earned a reputation for unwavering dedication, integrity, and always lending an ear - and a helping hand - to her constituents.”
Finally, Rep. Dan Stacy was getting a jump on everyone with his yard signs declaring his candidacy for state senate in 2026 (although if the incumbent, Sen. Mike Cierpiot is appointed to a position, it could come earlier).
Stacy will likely face Rep. Jeff Coleman in a Republican primary for that seat.
Remington/MOScout Poll: GOP Statewides
Survey conducted February 14 through February 15, 2024. 706 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. Find the full results here.
Q1: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Governor are Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel and Mike Kehoe. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Jay Ashcroft: 35%
Bill Eigel: 5%
Mike Kehoe: 22%
Undecided: 38%
Q2. The candidates in the Republican primary election for Lieutenant Governor are Tim Baker, Paul Berry, Dean Plocher, Holly Thompson Rehder, and David Wasinger. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Tim Baker: 10%
Paul Berry: 6%
Dean Plocher: 6%
Holly Thompson Rehder: 20%
David Wasinger: 5%
Undecided: 53%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Attorney General are Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Andrew Bailey: 24%
Will Scharf: 18%
Undecided: 58%
Q4: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Secretary of State are Valentina Gomez, Denny Hoskins, Caleb Rowden, Shane Schoeller and Adam Schwadron. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Valentina Gomez: 10%
Denny Hoskins: 12%
Caleb Rowden: 11%
Shane Schoeller: 6%
Adam Schwadron: 5%
Undecided: 56%
Q5: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Treasurer are Andrew Koenig, Vivek Malek, Lori Rook, and Cody Smith. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Andrew Koenig: 9%
Vivek Malek: 8%
Lori Rook: 16%
Cody Smith: 8%
Undecided: 58%
MOScout’s Hallway Index:
I asked lobbyists, “Who is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent?” 21 replies…
RESULTS
1. Andrew Bailey… 19%
2. Rick Brattin... 19%
3. Vivek Malek… 61.9%
4. Someone else… 0 %
Sample of Comments
· Haffner will split hard right vote w/ Brattin, opening lane for Houx to win.
· Scharf is going to roll Bailey.
· I’d say Bailey BUT either Scharf gets the Trump endorsement or gets fired. Not sure I can predict that.
· Racism is real and a guy named Vivek Malek doesn't stand much of a chance in a GOP primary.
Who Won the Week?
Who Won the Week will return next week.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-reproductive rights IP) - $500,000 from Global Impact Social Welfare Fund (Alexandria, VA).
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (pro-minimum wage IP) - $6,470 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement Collaborative.
MLPAC - $7,920 from World Finance Corporation.
UAW Region 4 Midwest States PAC (MO) - $6,000 from Midwest State Cap Exchange (Ottawa, IL).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Brian Williams, Jonathan Ratliff, and Pat Jakopchek.
Sunday: Frank Catanzaro, and Jeffery Justus.