MOScout Daily Update: News from Filing Day - Malek Hammered - House Mulls IVF Protections - Burlison Memo and more…

Filing Day Bits

No big surprises. But a few minor ones…

·       Clay County Commissioner Jerry Nolte filed for Senate 17.  He’s a Republican former state representative and well-respected in the building.  This gives the GOP a strong candidate to run against Democrat Maggie Nurrenbern as they try to hold this seat (Arthur termed). 

·       The Democratic Party denied Rep. Sarah Unsicker’s attempt to file for governor as a Dem. See the official letter here.

·       John Hewkin, who I’d had slotted for Senate 3 (Gannon retiring), pivoted to House 120 (Copeland retiring). That leaves a 2-way Republican primary in Senate 3 between two strong candidates:  Reps. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway and Mike Henderson.

·       Republican Robert Crump filed in Senate 1, giving Sen. Doug Beck a challenger.  I think Republicans are still looking for a stronger candidate here.  Crump lost to Sen. Karla May (running in Senate 4) in 2018.

·       Susan Haralson filed to run against Sen. Mike Moon in Senate 29. This is a serious challenge to Moon because Haralson hails from Christian County – the population center of this district.

Who I expected to see, but didn’t…

·       The biggest no-show of the day was Rep. Richard Brown.  He’s been the Dem’s LG candidate, and yet he seemed to have reconsidered. One insider told me that MO Party Chair Russ Carnahan was “calling around” yesterday looking for a replacement for Brown.

·       State Treasurer Vivek Malek didn’t make the trek down to the SOS office yesterday.  Perhaps after his bout with Cupp & Committee (see below) he took the day off.

·       Sen. Caleb Rowden, likewise, didn’t walk down to file for Secretary of State.

·       Rep. Justin Hicks, who’s formed a committee for 3-CD, didn’t file yesterday.  But he also didn’t file for his House seat (108).  I expect he will join the 3-CD scrum.

·       Also missing from 3-CD was Taylor Burks.

·       Reps. Ashley Bland Manlove and Ken Waller didn’t make it to filing day either.

·       Finally, among the missing were rumored challengers like Jeff Shawan (perhaps eying a primary against Sen. Jason Bean), and Catherine Dreher, former libertarian who was thought to be considering a statewide bid as a Republican.

Also…

·       Arnie Dienoff, the self-proclaimed “public advocate” who is a regular witness at committee hearings of all topics, filed to run as a Republican in 3-CD.  He nabbed the pole position by drawing the low number of 11.

·       We’ll have a rematch in House 73 between Rep. Raychel Proudie and Mike Person.  Proudie stomped Person in 2022 62% to 38%.

·       Former Rep. Tommie Pierson Sr filed against Rep. Marlene Terry in House 66.  Pierson was recently fined by the Missouri Ethics Commission for a conflict of interest during his time as mayor of Bellefontaine Neighbors.

The Early Line: Dems +3

One Dem consultant said that a 2-3 seats pick-up in the House seems reasonable.  That assessment was echoed by a Republican consultant who sees a 3-seat loss as a possible downside benchmark.

Once again, the battleground will be in the suburbs.  Of particular concern for Republicans is the impact on Dobbs on women.  After decades of using abortion to annihilate Dems from rural Missouri, abortion is now a losing issue for the GOP in the suburbs.

·       SOS Jay Ashcroft is the preferred Republican gubernatorial candidate for Dems because he’s the MRL endorsee and would reinforce their use of the abortion issue in messaging.

First in MOScout: House To Consider IVF Safeguards

Amid concerns that the codified belief that “life begins at conception” could endanger the practice of in vitro fertilization, look for Republicans to file legislation to clearly protect IVF.

After watching an Alamba Supreme Court decision impact IVF clinics there, Dems have raised the prospect that Missouri could be in a similar situation.

·       The vulnerability of IVFs amplifies the Dems’ argument that the Republicans’ stances on reproductive rights has become too extreme.  But if Republicans can pass protections, it might alleviate some of the criticism.

Malek Gets Hammered

Missouri Independent reports that “State Treasurer Vivek Malek endured a bipartisan beatdown Tuesday as members of a House subcommittee spent two hours telling him it was a big mistake to put decals advertising the Unclaimed Property program on unregulated gambling machines.”  Read it here.

·       A few hours later, Malek gave in to demands from members of the House Subcommittee on Appropriations – General Administration and removed the ads from machines owned by Torch Electronics.

What It Means

Folks were amazed by how poorly the hearing went for Malek.  “This is like watching the ship sink before your own eyes.”  But the hasty reversal was the best move.  The longer this saga drags on, the worse it would be for Malek.

Kehoe Ad Hits Ashcroft on Zuckbucks

The latest ad from the pro-Mike Kehoe American Dream PAC hits Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft for “taking Zuckerbucks.”  See it here.

As Secretary of State, Jay Ashcroft opened the door for election interference, taking big money from Mark Zuckerberg to conduct the election, allowing millions of “Zuckerbucks” to flood Missouri elections.  Then, Jay Ashcroft told Missouri voters to ignore Trump’s voter integrity concerns.  And Ashcroft supported mail-in ballots. Just another establishment politician.

·       I’m told these ads are running on TV in southwest Missouri, and then digitally statewide.

Burger Endorsements

Here’s a look at Rep. Jamie Burger’s notepad keeping a list of his endorsements in Senate 27….

Team Dinkins snarks: Interesting to see Peter Kinder endorse someone who was an elected Democrat (for two years after Eric Greitens was governor) after hitting Greitens so hard during the primary for being a former Democrat.

Burly Invincible

Team Burlison commissioned a poll to see where he stood ahead of his first re-election.  Answer: he stands tall.  See the memo here.

Q: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 74%

Unfavorable: 21%

No opinion: 5%

Q: What is your opinion of Jay Ashcroft?

Favorable: 48%

Unfavorable: 19%

No opinion: 33%

Q: What is your opinion of Eric Burlison?

Favorable: 51%

Unfavorable: 11%

No opinion: 38%

Q: What is your opinion of Jay Wasson?

Favorable: 22%

Unfavorable: 11%

No opinion: 67%

Ballot

A hypothetical ballot matchup was tested of Eric Burlison versus Jay Wasson. Burlison handily wins this matchup with a majority support.

Heads up against Jay Wasson, Burlison leads by 36 points, 50% to 14%. Conservatives and Trump Republicans/Evangelicals support Burlison by more than 40 points.

Lobbyist Registrations

Mark Bruns added Mike Rayner.

Fraidy Reiss and Becca Powell added Unchained At Last.

Eapen Thampy added Studio 420.

Noel Torpey added Winning for Missouri Education.

David Jackson and Jeffry Brooks added Medify Air.

David Winton and Jessica Petrie deleted Epworth Children & Family Services, and Common Sense Leadership Fund, Inc.

Ashley Lawson deleted Hahn DeBoef LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from Charter Communications.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from JB PAC.

Teamsters Local Union No 688 Political Action Committee - $9,488 from International Brotherhood of Teamters Missouri PAC- Federal Committee.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $7,812 from John Levy (Naples, FL).

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Mark Alford For Congress Inc.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Steve Butz.