MOScout Daily Update: Schaefer Serious About 3-CD - And Maybe Hicks? - Trump Bloc of MOGOP - Life After Lincoln - Protect MO Freedom and more…

3-CD Talk

I did a round of calls this weekend to see what folks are hearing on the Third Congressional race now that Bob Onder has officially jumped in.  Here’s the latest talk/rumors making the rounds…

·       I’m told that former Sen. Kurt Schaefer recently met with retiring Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer as well as donor Jeanne Sinquefield.  Folks feel that he’s serious and could very well enter this race before long.

·       Taylor Burks continues to talk to folks about possibly running.

·       One new name I hadn’t previously heard: Rep. Justin Hicks.  Apparently, the freshman state rep from Lake St. Louis is wondering if there’d be a path for him in a crowded field.

·       Talk of Sen. Caleb Rowden entering has died down, particularly in light of Schaefer’s considerations. One of Rowden’s motivations for reconsidering was the desire for a strong Mid-MO candidate.

·       And word is that former Speaker Rob Vescovo was in DC recently, and hasn’t closed the door on running.

Also

It’ll be interesting to see what Missouri Right to Life does in this race. While I had expected the MRL endorsement to follow Onder wherever he ran, I don’t see how they could give him sole endorsement over Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, as she’s been a true shero to their cause.

Plocher’s Quick Q&A

Watch Speaker Dean Plocher’s post-session press conference here.  It’s about four-ish minutes long.  The questions start coming about the most recent firing, and the Ethics Committee, and he hot-foots it pretty quick.

Trumpers Plurality of MO GOP

An interesting nugget inside last week’s MOScout/Remington poll on Republicans’ views of the Freedom Caucus was how the 741 respondents identified themselves within the Republican umbrella.  Trump Republicans were the largest bloc, but not a majority of MO GOP voters…

Hot Senate Debates Ahead?

The first three bills on the Senate calendar for floor debate are all hot topics… FRA renewal, charter school expansion, and IP reform.

·       FRA – I don’t think there’s anyone who believes that the Freedom Caucus will let a clean FRA renewal through at this point in session.  And there’s no way the Freedom Caucus amendment gets added.  The genuine fear is that the FRA could lapse if it gets tied up in court with lawsuits.  At that point the program would have to be reapproved by Feds, and that’s not a situation anyone wants to get into.  So, the real question this week is: how long will the FRA filibuster last before it’s laid over?

·       ESA / Charter school expansion – This is Sen. Andrew Koenig’s bill. It’s opposed by all the major education groups: Missouri Council of School Administrators, Missouri School Board Association, MNEA, MSTA, AFT, St. Louis and Kansas City Public Schools.  That guarantees it’s destined for a lot of debate.  In the end, we might see some late session Koenig compromise magic to get it out of the Senate.  But that’s not happening this week. 

·       IP Reform – There’s the case to be made that Dems shouldn’t spend too much capital trying to kill the concurrent majority IP change.  Lots of people think it’s unlikely to pass anyway.  They say it’s hard to explain to voters; once you explain it, they don’t like it; and besides there’s serious deep-pocketed interest groups (Relators, organized labor) who can mount an opposition campaign sure to sink the already lukewarm polling.  But plausible scenario is that, after a fair amount of filibustering, Dems agree to let it pass – for a price: “XYZ” (that is, legislation they really fear) is dead for the session.

Gaming Out Lincoln Scenarios

With Sen. Lincoln Hough saying that he’s considering entering the Lieutenant Governor’s race, some politicos are already gaming out the possible dominoes which would fall if he were to run and win.

·       There’d be a special election for this Senate 30 seat.  It’s not on cycle until 2026.  Republicans would likely look to Rep. Melanie Stinnett as their candidate.  And one assumes Democrats would rally around Minority Leader Crystal Quade (assuming she loses her gubernatorial bid).  It’s slight lean Republican district (Trump won with 49.5% in 2020), but probably tilting a little more Democratic each year.  It could be a pick-up for Dems depending on special election turnout.

·       Who’d get the gavel for Senate Appropriations?  With his hands already full chairing Judiciary, I don’t think vice-chair Tony Luetkemeyer would take over Appropriations.  Instead, it might go to Sen. Rusty Black, who would be set up for a long tenure as the Approps chairman.

Hello Protect MO Freedom

Over at the Secretary of State’s website, Protect Missouri Freedom filed paperwork last week.  It’s a non-profit.  Its purpose is the “promotion of the common good and general welfare of the citizens of the United States of America, including developing and conducting education and advocacy campaigns to encourage public support of social causes and legislation.”

·       The registered agent for the 501c(4) is Republican consultant Scott Dieckhaus…

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Parson announced judicial appointments to the 6th and 18th Judicial Circuits…

·       Susan Casey, of Parkville, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for the 6th Judicial Circuit.

·       Phillip Sawyer, of Sedalia, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Pettis County in the 18th Judicial Circuit.

eMailbag: Hallway Comment and WWTW Don’t Agree!

If “no one gives a shit about IP reform” and it’s useless to pursue it because it will just fail at the ballot box…why did Mary Elizabeth Coleman “Win The Week” for being chosen the Senate handler of the “high-profile IP Reform bill”?  Both things cannot be true at the same time.

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-reproductive rights PAC) - $25,000 from Wendell Reilly (Atlanta, GA).

Lobbyist Registrations

Dustin Backes added Midwest Natural Fiber.

Rodney Hubbard and Steven Carroll added Department of Sheriff/City of St. Louis.

Ryan DeBoef added Contender eSports LLC.

James Harris added Nabholz Construction Corporation.

Travis Lowe added Missouri Association of Landscape Architects.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays Allen Andrews, Teresa Hensley, Steve Hobbs, and Tyler Hobbs.