MOScout Daily Update: How Red is Missouri? - Charter Expansion in Senate - Moon Bill to Expand Death Penalty - Hamra Checks and more...

1 Big Thing: Quantifying the Redness of Missouri

In MOScout’s statewide poll over the weekend, Remington Research set the partisan weighting at +15% for Republicans. 

That’s up from their +8% weighting in March of 2022, and +9% in March of 2020.

In order to get an accurate sample, a poll must weight their responses to reflect the population it’s trying to assess.  Weighing for gender and age are easy because that information is available in voter registration files.  However, Missourians don’t register by party, so determining partisanship relies on looking at past results.

In 2022, Eric Schmitt won the US Senate race by 13%, and Scott Fitzpatrick won Auditor by 22%.

In 2020, Donald Trump carried Missouri by 15%, Mike Parson by 17%, Mike Kehoe by 20%, Jay Ashcroft by 24%, Fitzpatrick by 21%, and Schmitt by 22%.

A few things to note…

·       The conventional wisdom used to be that the presidential cycles favored Democrats as we’d see better urban turnout in those elections.  But as the state has turned more red, higher turnout is actually more beneficial for the GOP.

·       The magnitude of recent Republican statewide wins underscores the difficult task Dem statewide candidates face.  This is why some observers think a “flawed” Republican candidate, like Saundra McDowell in 2018, is the only path for Democratic statewide victories these days.

Also…

·       Even with the huge GOP weighing, according to the poll, Missourians don’t think frozen embryos used in in vitro fertilization should have the same legal status as unborn children.

Charter Expansion Debate

The week, the Senate is expected to debate Sen. Andrew Koenig’s SB 727 which increases the ESA tax credit from $50 million a year to $75 million, and expands charter schools into St. Louis County, St. Charles County and Boone County.

In the committee hearing, all the Democrats opposed the bill.  But they may have some Republican allies when the bill hits the floor.  Sen. Elaine Gannon voted against the bill in committee.  And Sen. Jill Carter voted against an identical bill, Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer’s SB 1391, in committee as well.

This is a classic showdown between the “reformers” and the “establishment.” 

Supporting the bill: American Federation for Children, Missouri Century Foundation, Children Education Alliance, Missouri Catholic Conference, Americans For Prosperity, and Yes. Every Kid. 

And in opposition: Missouri Council of School Administrators, Missouri NEA, AFL-CIO, Missouri School Board Association, Missouri Retired Teachers Association, Missouri State Teachers Association, American Federation of Teachers, St. Louis Public School District, and Cooperating Schools of Greater KC.

·       I’ll be watching to see if future DESE Commissioner, Sen. Karla Eslinger, weighs in on the debate.

Hamra Checks

The absence of Mike Hamra from the list of filed candidates has had some wondering if the Democrat was reconsidering his bid for governor.

But two recent checks into his PAC, Together Missouri PAC, indicate that he’s still on track with his plans.

·       Last week, Together Missouri PAC received a $30,000 from George Britton, and $25,000 from Michael Heim.

Death Penalty for Rapists

At the Senate Judiciary Committee today, Sen. Mike Moon will present SB 951, a bill to expand the death penalty to apply to individuals who commit statutory rape in the first degree.

Statutory rape in the first degree is defined as “sexual intercourse with another person who is less than fourteen years of age.”

·       I expect some eye-rolling from folks who will note how little faith conservatives have in the government to competently deliver services, and yet will trust the government enough to determine whether a citizen should live or die.

Reid, A Repeat Offender

In an unflinching op/ed piece on YahooSports, Dan Wetzel questions Governor Mike Parson’s commutation of Britt Reid, especially in light of Reid’s previous troubles with the law.

·       Ariel [Young]’s attorney, Tom Porto of the Popham Law Firm, however, says he knows why Britt Reid is out early. “It’s because the Governor of Missouri is a Chiefs fan, went to the Super Bowl, went to the after parties, went to the parade and the rally and even has a Chiefs tattoo,” Porto told Yahoo Sports…

·       “It seems the laws don’t apply equally to the haves and have-nots,” Ariel’s mother, Felicia Miller said in a statement. “The haves get favors. The have-nots serve their sentence.”

·       The only defense of Parson’s decision came via a statement from his office, which noted Reid had completed a prison “alcohol abuse treatment program.” Great. Everyone should hope it will take, but this isn’t Britt Reid's first time through either rehab (including high-end private ones) or prison. He previously served just five months of a 23-month sentence for brandishing a gun during a road rage incident in Pennsylvania, when Andy [Reid] coached the Philadelphia Eagles. Britt Reid also has a prior DUI and drug possession charge.

·       And yes, Parson, a former small county sheriff, has pardoned and commuted hundreds of sentences, but how did a repeat offender with a lifetime of addiction issues and less than two years remaining make the list? No one can explain it.

$5K+ Contributions

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $25,000 from Hunt Midwest Enterprises Inc.

Sander for Missouri - $5,001 from Christopher Sander.

Lobbyist Registrations

Nexus Group added BRINC Drones Inc.

Matthew Crowell added Missouri State Public Defender System.

Jay Hahn added CareSTL Health.

Josh Hoe added Dream Corps.                 

Matthew Charles added Families Against Mandatory Minimums.

Steven Tilley and Thomas Robbins deleted Hippos, LLC.

Susan Henderson Moore and Cara Alexander deleted MyDigiRecords.

Guy Black deleted Kings Garden Midwest, LLC.

James Harris deleted LabTest Diagnostics.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Speaker Dean Plocher, Jay Reichard, and Matthew Choinka.