MOScout Weekender: 3-CD Poll - February Revenues Solid - Hallway Scratches Head on 3-CD - WWTW and more…
Solid February Revenues
At the close of business on February 29, state tax receipts for the month were 18% higher than February 2023. The comparison was aided by one extra day, but it was still a strong showing that show alleviate fears that we’ll see a significant budget shortfall this year.
Sales tax receipts were up 12%, and individual income tax receipts were up 9%.
That brings our fiscal year-to-date number to up a little over 1%, no great shakes, but certainly within the ballpark of the consensus revenue number.
Why It Matters
One lobbyist wonders if House Budget Chair Cody Smith has been waiting and watching revenue numbers before making final decisions and passing the budget to the Senate. “He’s generally been a no guy. Lincoln [Hough] is a yes guy. Cody would like to say yes more but wants to make sure the money is there.”
Remington/MOScout Poll: 3-CD
Survey conducted February 28 through March 1, 2024. 411 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: What is your opinion of Blaine Luetkemeyer?
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 13%
No opinion: 37%
Q2: What is your opinion of the United States Congress?
Favorable: 13%
Unfavorable: 66%
No opinion: 21%
Q3: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 74%
Unfavorable: 21%
No opinion: 5%
Q4: The candidates in the Republican primary election for Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District are, Mary Elizabeth Coleman, Justin Hicks, Bob Onder, Kurt Schaefer, and Brandon Wilkinson. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Mary Elizabeth Coleman: 9%
Justin Hicks: 4%
Bob Onder: 19%
Kurt Schaefer: 5%
Brandon Wilkinton: 1%
Undecided: 62%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: 3-CD
I asked lobbyists, “ Who is most likely to win the Republican 3-CD primary?” 27 replies…
RESULTS
1. Taylor Burks… 0%
2. Mary Elizabeth Coleman… 29.6%
3. Bob Onder… 33.3%
4. Kurt Schaefer… 33.3%
5. Someone else… 3.7%
Sample of Comments
· A bunch of generic conservative men vs the Pro Life Queen of Missouri. This doesn't seem that complicated to me.
· I think MEC will really stand out as the only woman and staunch pro-life supporter.
· Kurt will have the population center (Mid-MO) to himself and the financial resources to win.
· Not going to count Kurt out. His network in mid-MO and the ag community should serve him well as MEC and Onder compete for the far-right vote.
· Not sure how a moderate lobbyist candidate wins a Republican primary.
· Only female currently in the race with potentially more men (Hicks) entering. This bodes well for MEC.
· 34% of the district lives in St. Charles County. That's tough to beat! I am glad to see Justin Hicks didn't make your list. He needs to run for re-election.
· It's a money race right… only wildcard is how committed Jim is to making Bob's dream come true.
Who Won the Week?
Dick Gephardt – 83 years old, out of the office for decades now, and still has a hand in shaping history as he guides Joe Manchin away from a third-party presidential bid.
Mike Kehoe – Nabs the big Farm Bureau endorsement, continues reeling in the checks.
Bill Allen – First legislator to file a bill protecting IVF in MO.
Kurt Schaefer – Taylor Burks bowing out makes Schaefer the mid-MO candidate.
Find a downloadable version here.
New Candidate Filings
Tim Baker (Republican) filed for lieutenant governor.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (higher minimum wage IP) - $125,000 from The Fairness Project.
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $81,750 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $25,000 from Jobs with Justice Ballot Fund.
Fauss Campaign Fund - $5,024 from Sean Fauss.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Mitch Boggs, Rob Monsees, William “Buddy” Hardin, and Titus Bond.
Sunday: John Hancock, Heath Clarkston, Maria Walden, Jason Groce, and Brooke Foster.