MOScout Daily Update: SOS Shakeup Coming? - What To Watch in Final Filing Days - Webber as Sun Tzu - Berne in 105 - Sweet 16 in MOScout Hunger Games Bracket and more...
And, I’m back! I had a wonderful little time off. My wife and I zipped to NYC where we didn’t do much of anything, but ended up doing a lot… had bagels for breakfast, lunch in Chinatown, walked through Central Park, saw a Broadway show, visited the 9/11 site, ate NY-style pizza, took lots of subway rides (along with one harrowing cab ride), and also… ran to this beautiful Thomas Hart Benton mural at The Met.
It reminded me to stop taking for granted all that great artwork we have at the Capitol.
OK. Let’s do a quick catch-up on all I missed Thursday and Friday….
MRL Picks State Senate Candidates
Missouri Right to Live continued to roll out its endorsements. And it continues to pick among pro-life Republicans, giving some the “exclusive” endorsements with little specific reasoning for their favor. MRL endorsed…
· Rep. Adam Schnelting in Senate 23, running against Rep. Phil Christofanelli.
· Rep. Brad Hudson in Senate 33, running against Rep. Travis Smith.
What it looks like: It looks like MRL is backing future Senate Freedom Caucus members. The Freedom Caucus has been most vocal about tying the FRA renewal to a ban on Planned Parenthood funding.
Two Days Left: SOS Shakeup Coming?
Candidate filing closes in less than 48 hours. Would-be candidates must make it to the secretary of state’s office by 5PM tomorrow.
· One Capitol observer predicts, “Monday and Tuesday are gonna be the wildest non-election days since the Greitens scandal.”
Stirring the speculation frenzy are rumors that we could have a shakeup in the Secretary of State’s race.
One tipster from St. Charles County Lincoln Days noted that Speaker Dean Plocher’s ad - with its heavy focus on election-related issues – is more applicable to the SOS job than the LG job. A second tipster close to Plocher confirmed that he’s considering a switch, which could be announced as soon as today. But, as always, we’ll see...
And that’s not all. Another rumor has Jamie Corley considering jumping into the SOS race as well. Corley, known recently as the chief advocate for a “moderate” pro-choice IP proposal, has a strong GOP background. She served as press secretary for three members of Congress, and founded and sold a publishing company.
The case for Corley…
· Her work over the past year has introduced her to a bloc of Republican voters no one else is talking to.
· A $50 million pro-choice IP in August would turn out her key demographic: suburban families and women.
· She comes from a trial lawyer family with deep roots in Missouri (her grandfather was president of MATA).
As with Plocher… we’ll see.
More Filing Drama
Who we’re waiting on…
· Will Democrat Mike Hamra pull the trigger and enter the Democratic gubernatorial primary? Recent checks into his PAC indicate that he’s still running, and perhaps just wants the last spot on the ballot. But some question whether he runs. They think that his campaign would bring unwanted attention to his business’ labor practices, and also, “isn’t he smart enough to know a Dem can’t win statewide this year?”
· Incumbent State Treasurer Vivek Malek hasn’t filed yet. I’ve been assured that he will, but why hasn’t he?
· And speaking of the treasurer’s race, will the Dems’ file anyone? Anyone at all?
What I’m watching…
· Senate 5: I’ve been assuming that the progressive groups in St. Louis would be bringing a fight to Sen. Steven Roberts, in order to exact payback for his challenging Cori Bush two years ago. But so far, nothing.
· Senate 19: Every student of Sun Tzu knows that winning a hundred battles doesn’t demonstrate great strategic skill. Winning without fighting does. Sen-elect. Stephen Webber appears to be on track to do just that, assuming no Dem or GOPer files in the next two days.
· Senate 25: There had been rumors that former Rep. Jeff Shawan would primary Sen. Jason Bean. Does that rematch materialize?
Finally, some old man advice: Don’t wait until the last hour to file, folks. You hit a traffic jam, you get a flat, you wake up with the flu. A million things can go wrong. Don’t tempt Fate. If you’re planning to file, go ahead and file today.
Driving the Day: House Budget
· The House Budget Committee meets today at 10AM and will have a long day working through proposed amendments to the draft that Chair Cody Smith unveiled before Spring Break.
· Meanwhile the Senate EcoDevo Committee will hear bills from Sens. Mary Elizabeth Coleman and Holly Thompson Rehder to exempt food sales from the state sales tax.
Berne is Back
Among those filing (see the New Candidates list below) is Democrat Cindy Berne, running for House 105. Berne ran, in 2020, and then again in 2022 (it was a bit different from redistricting). She lost by a mere 99 votes last time.
· Dems have this one in their sights. Especially since incumbent Rep. Adam Schwadron is exiting to run for secretary of state.
Republicans are putting up Colin Wellenkamp (see his website here). He’s “a conservative and seasoned leader in sustainable development law and infrastructure policy… Wellenkamp's educational background includes a Juris Doctor from Creighton University School of Law and an LL.M. in Sustainable Development Law from The George Washington Law School. He earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in Environmental Studies and Political Science from Saint Louis University... Wellenkamp's campaign will focus on issues such as resilience, natural and built infrastructure renewal, economic development, education, and public safety…”
Burger Hints At Big Quarter
In Senate 27, Team Burger says they’re already over $200K raised this quarter. Rep. Jamie Burger “had emergency appendectomy surgery on March 1,” so was out of commission for few weeks, but expects a strong final two weeks to the quarter.
BAF Ad Opposing SB 751
Building America’s Future announced a “high five-figure cable television buy in Kansas and Missouri that will run for the next two weeks” to “highlight the dangers of the federal 340B program being used to subsidize health care to illegal immigrants.”
· In Missouri, they’re targeting Sen. Justin Brown’s SB 751 that passed out of committee 5-0.
Realtors Working The Halls
It’s no secret that the Missouri Realtors are standing firm against SJR 74, which require concurrent majorities to pass constitutional amendments by initiative petition. The Realtors – Missouri's largest professional trade association – have twice successfully used the IP process to protect citizens from higher taxes. The Realtors have been quietly but steadily bringing in local members twice weekly to meet with their lawmakers. More than 200 influential local Realtors from 19 regional associations have been walking the marble halls so far this session. Shepherded by Realtors’ chief lobbyist Sam Licklider, a 50+year Capitol veteran, these business leaders from lawmakers’ hometowns are respected and organized.
· Scores more are scheduled to come to the statehouse with session resuming…
NYT on Movie Incentives
The New York Times dives into the competition among state to land movie productions. They calculate 38 states are in the game of offering incentives. Read it here. Last year, Governor Mike Parson signed SB 94, the Show MO Act.
· Supporters of film incentives see them as an engine for job creation. After all, when productions come to town, they need electricians, hair stylists and many other crew members to make movie magic. Productions also spend money while working — money that trickles through local economies to hotels, diners and dry cleaners.
· Incentives can be effective at luring projects. But economists warn that using them to do so is very expensive and offers minimal bang for your buck. Study after study has found that the tax revenue generated by film incentive programs is a quarter, or even a dime, of every dollar invested.
MOScout’s Jeff City Hunger Games Brackets: Sweet Sixteen
Here are the sweet sixteen in the MOScout Jeff City Hunger Games March Madness Mash-Up… Sens. Cindy O’Laughlin, Karla May, John Rizzo, Caleb Rowden; Reps. Keri Ingle, Jay Mosley, Dean Plocher, Raychel Proudie, Rodeny Boyd, Otto Fajen, Jason Hancock, Kyna Iman, Gregg Keller, Sam Licklider, Becky Lohmann, and Pat Thomas.
I made a new bracket without the capcha to make it easier to vote: Vote here.
New Candidate Filings
· Steven Bright (Republican) filed in House 25. He’ll face Democratic Rep. Patty Lewis.
· Teresa Murphy (Republican) filed to run in House 37. She’ll face Democratic Rep. Mark Sharp.
· Jim Povolish (Republican) filed in House 78. This is a safe Dem seat, the old Rasheen Aldridge district.
· Kirk Hilzinger (Republican) filed in House 80 where Democratic Rep. Peter Merideth is termed.
· Jake Koehr (Republican) filed to run in House 81. Democratic Rep. Steve Butz has a primary as well, but should prevail easily in both elections.
· Ricky Cowell (Republican) filed to run in House 82 where Democratic Rep. Donna Baringer is termed. He’ll face Democrat Nick Kimble.
· Robert Vroman (Republican) filed to run in House 84. He’ll face Democratic Rep. Del Taylor.
· Kyle Luzynski (Democrat) filed to run in House 88. He’ll face Republican Rep. Holly Jones.
· Deb Langland (Democrat) filed to run in House 95. She’ll face Republican Rep. Michael O’Donnell.
· Denise Billo (Democrat) filed to run in House 97. She’ll face Republican Rep. David Casteel.
· Cindy Berne (Democrat) filed to run for House 105. This is Republican Rep. Adam Schwadron’s district. He’s running for secretary of state. It’s a competitive district.
· Karen Edge (Democrat) filed to run in House 106. She’ll face Republican Rep. Travis Wilson.
· Mike Costlow (Republican) filed to run in House 108. This is where Rep. Justin Hicks is vacating to run for congress.
· Casey Cassidy (Democrat) filed to run in House 117. This is Republican Rep. Mike Henderson’s district. He’s running for state senate.
· Lancer Blair (Republican) filed to run in House 120. This is where Rep. Ron Copeland is opting not to run for re-election.
· Gary Senciboy (Republican) filed in House 148. This creates a primary to succeed Rep. Jamie Burger.
· Larry Lindeman (Republican) filed in House 154. This creates a primary to succeed Rep. Dave Evans.
· Mark Farnham (Republican) filed in House 160. He’ll face Republican Rep. Ben Baker.
· Raymond James (Democrat) filed in Senate 31. This district (Brattin) is a safe Republican hold.
John Kiehne (Democrat running in CD-2), and Dustin Holmes (Republican running in House 142 (Rep. Jeff Knight)) withdrew.
$5K+ Contributions
Osage River Gaming and Convention (pro-Ozark casino IP) - $463,566 from RIS Inc.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-reproductive rights IP) - $275,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from McBride & Son Management LLC.
American Dream PAC - $5,700 from Terry Cole.
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $10,000 from Richard Tracy.
Independence Leadership PAC (pro-Sauls) - $25,000 from Gary Robb.
House Democratic Campaign Committee - $35,000 from MSCEW PAC Federal Committee.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $10,000 from Gary Robb.
All in for Jackson - $8,590 from Southeast Missouri Realtors .
UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee - $75,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Active Ballot Club (Washington, DC).
Citizens for Mike Lissner - $10,000 from Michael Lissner.
UAW Region 4 Midwest States PAC (MO) - $6,000 from Midwest State Cap Exchange (Ottawa, IL).
La Raza Political Club Inc - $25,000 from Kansas City Royals Baseball Club.
Parents for Mohammadkhani - $25,000 from Maryam Mohammadkhani.
Lobbyist Registrations
Bennie Lewis added Youth and Police Initiative.
Gamble & Schlemeier added Teaching Strategies LLC.
Terri Broussard Williams added Edward D. Jones & Co., L.P.
David Sweeney added Forest Park Forever.
Doug Collins added Justice Action Network.
Mary Kenah added Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund.
Jeffrey Altmann added Crown Castle.
Michelle Jones added Emergent BioSolutions.
Marcus Smith added Sanofi US.
Steven Tilley, Thomas Robbins, Brittany Hyatt Robbins, Christopher Schoeman, and Alc Rosenblum added The Advertisers Printing Company.
Ginger Steinmetz deleted Autoreturn.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Reps. Mark Mattheisen and Chris Sander, Jason Holsman, Doug Libla, Erica Choinka, Robert Cornejo, and Saundra McDowell.
Congratulations
To Jodi and Mike Lodewegen on the birth of their son Grant Meyer Lodewegen (7lbs, 6oz; 19in.).