MOScout Daily Update: The Suddenly Hot SOS Race - All the Filing News - Freedom Caucus Warning Shot - Labor for Bell and more…

Running late – and overweight this morning….

The Suddenly Hot SOS Race

One day after Jamie Corley filed for secretary of state, three more Republicans entered the race bringing that primary field to 8.

Speaker Dean Plocher pivoted from his previous LG bid to the SOS race.  Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman did the same, leaving the 3-CD race.  And then, Mike Carter filed in the final hour. 

Why the suddenly hot race…

·       First, in the last couple of years, the SOS office has gone from something of a sleepy place to the nexus of great Republican concern.  It’s no longer about registering businesses and making sure election returns are posted by 9:30PM on election night instead of 12:30AM.  Since Donald Trump’s lies of a “stolen election,” it’s now the focus of MAGA paranoia: election fraud, conspiracy about voting machines, and proposals to have humans hand-counting paper ballots as a more reliable process (!!).

·       Second, there’s game theory math that drives more people into a crowded field.  The more people run, the more people run.  That’s because with more contestants, the imagined number of votes needed to win decreases.  Everyone thinks they’re base might be enough to propel them to a victory if the vote splits just right. 

Driving the latest decisions…

·       Plocher was presumably fleeing what looks to be a fundraising juggernaut in Sen. Lincoln Hough.  The big checks have been pretty consistent for Hough since his announcement. (There’s another one today, below).  Plocher’s well known vulnerabilities (Fireside, double-dipping, liquor pantry) would be death hits – assuming his opponent has enough money to make the hit.  In the LG race, Hough could do that.  In the SOS race, Plocher’s not necessarily the top target among 8 contenders, and no one (as of yet) has the war-chest to take him out.

·       MEC, likewise, must have calculated that her geographic base was too small in 3-CD to compete with Kurt Schaefer’s Mid-MO base, and Bob Onder’s money.  Plus, Onder is thisclose with Missouri Right to Life, so she wasn’t going to be able to distinguish herself on that issue.

·       I assume Carter is hoping he has residual name ID from his various runs (Senate 10 in 2022, LG 2020, Senate 23 2016, LG 2012).  He will be pinging people non-stop with robotexts and robocalls for the next four months.

Also – Filing to Re-Open

Plocher and Coleman withdrawing means filing will re-open for a window (Tuesday – Friday) in those races (LG, 3-CD).

From  115.361… 4.  If after filing a declaration of candidacy, a candidate files a statement of withdrawal within two working days prior to the deadline for the close of filing set forth in section 115.349, the time of filing for that office shall cease at said deadline.  There shall be a reopening of filing on the first Tuesday after the deadline for the close of filing set forth in section 115.349 which shall last until 5:00 p.m. on the Friday immediately following the first Tuesday after said deadline.

Freedom Caucus Fires Warning Shot

Sens. Mike Moon and Rick Brattin took to the Senate floor briefly yesterday to bewail the lack of action on their bills, and warn of future blowups if they don’t see changes…

Now, at the beginning of session, we really did kind of rise up and say, you know, we want everything referred. Well, everything was referred, but unfortunately, nothing else is moving apart from that… I've had three of the 28 bills that I filed, three hearings, three of which, occurred like the first two weeks of session.  And I've sent letters to chairmen but it's like almost there's something behind the scenes that is the underpinning there of saying that nothing of mine, or certain senators, is going to move here. So it is really frustrating to know these sorts of antics are occurring just because, and that's what leads to this frustration, that's what leads to the blowups, that's what leads things coming to a halt in this chamber is because games continue to be played behind the scenes…

·       What It Means: Same as it ever does: turbulent times ahead in the Missouri Senate.

Breaking Today… Bell Continues to Amass Labor Support

Press release: Today, Wesley Bell’s campaign announced endorsements from the Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council, Insulators Local 1, and Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 562. Wesley Bell, the St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney, is running to represent Missouri’s 1st congressional district.

·       It’s a remarkable display of displeasure for labor unions to be endorsing a challenger to an incumbent congresswoman.

MRL’s Early Endorsement Backfire

The move of Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman from 3-CD to SOS shows the inadvisability of Missouri Right to Life’s early endorsement strategy.  Perhaps they meant to give an early advantage to their preferred candidates and maybe freeze the field.  But that clearly didn’t work in the slightest. 

And now they have pro-life champion MEC in the same race as their “exclusively endorsed” Sen. Denny Hoskins.  Will they rescind the exclusivity and co-endorse? What message would that send to other folks about their process in the future?

Treasurer’s Race

The treasurer’s race also saw a doubling of the field.  Incumbent Vivek Malek, as announced yesterday, filed.  But so did two others: Tina Goodrick, and Karan Pujji.  Goodrick is an activist, and Pujji has run for office before.  One MOScouter suggested that Pujji might have been lured into the race as an Indian-American stalking horse, but really… is Missouri’s Indian-American vote that large that we need to be concerned about splitting it??

Most talk in this race is focusing on “name.”  One Republican broke it down like this: Let’s be honest, it’s a GOP primary: Two foreign names. Two women [Goodrick and Lori Rook]. Too much statewide noise in other races.  Voters are going to pick one of the two white guys [Cody Smith and Andrew Koenig].

While I don’t dismiss that analysis, it’s important to remember that Malek has $2.4 million (as of last quarter) in his campaign accounts.  That can break through the statewide noise.  It’s not a slam-dunk, but, if used effectively, it will definitely make this more than a “name game.”

LG’s Race

The lieutenant governor’s race is another toss-up at this point.  Sen. Lincoln Hough would probably be considered the favorite given that he’s been raising money at clip that must worry his opponents.  One person I spoke to yesterday thinks Hough will end up with a $2 million war-chest.

But Sen. Holly Rehder has the top position on the ballot – and is the only woman with five men running.

Dave Wasinger has the Missouri Right to Life endorsement and will presumably be self-funding at some level.

And yesterday’s late entry – Matthew Porter – could be intriguing.  I’m not actually sure who this is yet.  But if it’s this Matthew Porter – a tech executive has the same middle initial and lives in St. Charles – he’d give voters an outsider choice.

·       See his twitter here, Linked In here.

Other Filings to Note

·       Former Rep. Chuck Bayse, known for his crude behavior, filed to run against Democrat Stephen Webber in Senate 19.

·       Speaker-elect Jon Patterson did get a last-minute Democratic opponent.  I have no doubt he’ll win, but he’s in a swing district, so it will take some attention on his part.  Trump won House 30 with 50.7% of the vote in 2020.

·       The House 64 primary could be one to watch.  Rep. Tony Lovasco, with his libertarian bent, has drawn opposition before.  In 2022, he prevailed in a 3-way primary with 36.2%.  One of those opponents, Deanna Self, who drew 34.8% (the third person grabbed 29%), is back again this cycle.  The one-on-one match-up could be tough for Lovasco.  We’ll see…

·       No primary challenge to Sen. Jason Bean means he can focus on the floor leader race.

Free Pass Folks

Republicans without a primary or Democrat opponent: Reps. Hardy Billington, Mitch Boggs, Bob Bromley, Donnie Brown, Mazzie Christensen, Dirk Deaton, Sherri Gallick, Willard Haley, Bill Irwin (Mike Haffner district), Jeff Knight, Mike McGirl, Mark Meirath (Doug Richey district), Louis Riggs, Alex Riley, Brenda Shields, Dean VanSchoiack, and Rudy Veit.        

Democrats without a primary or Republican opponent: Marlon Anderson, LaDonna Appelbaum, LaKeySha Bosley, Doug Clemens, Kimberly-Ann Collins, Jo Doll, Melissa Douglas (Richard Brown district), Yolonda Fountain Henderson, Bridget Walsh Moore, Ray Reed (Sarah Unsicker district), David Tyson Smith, Kathy Steinhoff, and Eric Woods.

List of Final Day Candidate Filings

·       Matthew E. Porter (Republican) and Anastasia Syes (Democrat) filed for lieutenant governor.

·       Mary Elizabeth Coleman (Republican) withdrew from 3-CD, and filed for secretary of state.

·       Dean Plocher (Republican) withdrew from lieutenant governor, and filed for secretary of state.

·       Mike Carter (Republican) filed for secretary of state.

·       Vivek Malek (Republican), Tina Goodrick (Republican), Karan Pujji (Republican), and Mark Osmack (Democrat) filed for treasurer.

·       Bruce Bowman (Republican) filed in 3-CD.

·       Doug Halbert (Democrat) filed for Senate 3.

·       Robert Vroman (Republican) withdrew from House 84 and filed for Senate 5.

·       Chuck Basye (Republican) filed in Senate 19.

·       Chuck Banks (Democrat) filed in Senate 25.

·       Ron Monnig (Democrat) filed in Senate 29.

·       Michelle Horner (Republican) filed in House 1.  This is sort of a rematch.  Horner placed 5th in the 5-way primary in 2022 that Rep. Jeff Farnan won.

·       Terrence Fiala (Democrat) filed in House 7.  He’ll face Republican Rep. Peggy McGaugh.

·       Mike Jones (Republican) filed in House 15.  This is the Nurrenbern seat.

·       Clarence Franklin, Jr. (Democrat) filed in House 20.  This is the McMullen seat.

·       Steven Hinton (Republican) filed in House 28.  This is where Donna Barnes, wife of termed Rep. Jerome Barnes is running.

·       Kevin Grover (Democrat) filed in House 30.  He’ll face Speaker-elect Jon Patterson.

·       Michael Green (Republican) filed in House 35.  He’ll face Democratic Rep. Keri Ingle.

·       Hans Stock (Democrat) filed in House 41.  He’ll face Republican Rep. Doyle Justus.

·       Erik Richardson (Democrat) filed in House 43.  He’ll face Republican Rep. Kent Haden.

·       Ryan Johnson (Republican) filed in House 56.  This is now a 3-way Republican primary involving incumbent Rep. Michael Davis.

·       Pamela Paul (Democrat) filed in House 68.  This is now a 3-way primary; Rep. Jay Mosley is termed.

·       Durell Reeves (Democrat) filed in House 70.  This is now a 3-way primary; Rep. Gretchen Bangert is termed.

·       Cydney Johnson Sr. (Democrat) filed in House 81. This is now a 3-way Democratic primary involving incumbent Rep. Steve Butz.

·       Donald Flecke (Republican) filed in House 82.  Democratic Rep. Donna Baringer is termed.

·       Scott Mathewson (Republican) filed in House 90.  Democratic Rep. Barbara Phifer is running for SOS.

·       Tim Bosch (Republican) and Carol Veillette (Republican) filed in House 98.  Democratic Rep. Deb Lavender is termed.

·       Dave Rekosh (Democrat) filed in House 112.  He’ll face Republican Rep. Renee Reuter.

·       Nancy Bates (Democrat) filed in House 123.  This is the Lisa Thomas seat.

·       Louise Hansen (Democrat) filed in House 129.  She’ll face Republican Rep. John Black.

·       Michael Hasty (Republican) filed in House 135.  He’ll face Democratic Rep. Betsy Fogle.

·       Danny Garrison (Republican) filed in House 140, creating a primary for Rep. Jamie Ray Gragg.

·       Michael Bates (Democrat) filed in House 141.  This is where Rep. Hannah Kelly is termed.

·       Paul Usher II (Republican filed in House 144.  This is now a 3-way Republican primary to succeed Rep. Chris Dinkins.

·       Donnie Lynn Hovis Jr. (Democrat) filed in House 151.  This is the Herman Morse seat.

·       Mark Collins (Republican) and JoJo Stewart (Democrat) filed in House 154.  This is the Rep. Dave Evans seat.

·       Philip Wilson (Democrat) filed in House 163.  This is the Rep. Cody Smith seat.

$5K+ Contributions

Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $10,000 from Koch Industries, Inc. (Wichita, KS).

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $12,500 from Atha Brothers LLC.

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $35,000 from Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters PAC.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-reproductive health IP) - $28,080 from American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri, Inc.

Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $15,000 from G & S Construction and Farms, Inc.

Roorda For Senate - $17,079 from Jeff Roorda Rev Trust.

MBA Capitol Region PAC - $6,412 from Wood & Huston Bank.

Yes on ECC - $60,000 from East Central College Foundation.

Robert Schreiber For Columbia City Council - $6,995 from Missouri-Kansas Laborers District Council PAC.

Lobbyist Registrations

Adam Rapert added Association of Plumbing, Heating and Cooling Contractors.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Mike Leara, Mike Kelley, Jake Silverman, and Dave Stokes.