MOScout Daily Update: Attorneys for Schnelting - NEW: PowerRankings - Knodell Passes - How Nolte Got In and more…
Lawyers Heart Schnelting
I wrote yesterday about the Carpenters’ willingness to support politicians on both sides of the aisle. They’re not the only ones.
Trial attorneys, one of the most reliable funders of Democratic campaigns, have become increasingly active in Republican primaries. They’ve been big supporters of the Senate Freedom Caucus. And that’s paid off recently with no serious tort bills passing that chamber. It seems they’ll be a force in this year’s Senate Republican primaries. In Senate 23, for example, Rep. Adam Schnelting, potential new Senate FC member, recorded trial attorney support on his recent quarter…
· Langdon & Emison LLC - $1,500.
· Dollar, Burns, Becker & Hershewe LC - $1,500.
· Gary Robb - $1,500.
· Mandel & Mandel LLP - $500.
· Michael Campbell - $500.
· Presley & Presley LLC - $500.
· Placzek Winget Placzek LLC - $500.
· The Hines & Wilson Law Firm - $500.
· Larson & Miller Law Firm - $500.
Introducing MOScout PowerRankings
I’m starting a new feature: “MOScout PowerRankings” for Republican statewide office elections. Find them here.
Starting in the top positions…
GOV: Jay Ashcroft.
LG: Holly Rehder.
SOS: Denny Hoskins.
Treasurer: Vivek Malek.
AG: Andrew Bailey.
· These rankings will be updated as campaign unfold, candidates enter or exit.
Behind Nolte’s Senate 17 Bid
One insider recalls the run-up to for Rep. Jerry Notle’s decision to get into the Senate 17 race.
It started with frustration from Clay County Republicans who watched Victor Hurlbert get in, get out, and then get back into the race. His letter dropping out caught most of the party by complete surprise. After being asked to sign a letter to “re-draft” him back into the race many, including Nolte, reluctantly signed with hopes of a better campaign to come. But they “were disappointed by the lack of work and dismal fundraising reported in January and felt like the seat had all been given up on.”
Nolte feared Dems were waltzing into 8 more years of controlling the seat, and that would eventually impact the ability of Republicans to hold House seats in Clay. Nolte, who was re-elected as Presiding Commissioner in 2022 with more than 70% of the vote in the County’s first non-partisan election for that seat, thought he could step in. He conducted a poll to test how he would fair against Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern, and then shared the poll results with Hulbert who agreed and offered to help Nolte in the race.
From that poll…
Field Date: February 21-22, 2024
Completed Surveys: 400 General Election Voters
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?
Very Favorable................................28.0%
Somewhat Favorable..........................12.0%
TOTAL FAVORABLE....................40.0%
No Opinion.....................................5.3%
Somewhat Unfavorable........................7.0%
Very Unfavorable.............................47.3%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE................54.3%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Joe Biden?
Very Favorable.................................15.5%
Somewhat Favorable...........................17.8%
TOTAL FAVORABLE.....................33.3%
No Opinion……………………………7.2%
Somewhat Unfavorable........................13.8%
Very Unfavorable..............................45.3%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE.................59.1%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Jerry Nolte?
TOTAL FAVORABLE.....................13.6%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE..................5.3%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Victor Hurlbert?
TOTAL FAVORABLE......................6.0%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE..................13.6%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Maggie Nurrenbern?
TOTAL FAVORABLE......................6.0%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE..................3.1%
If the General Election for Missouri State Senate were held today, would you vote for Jerry Nolte, the Republican, or Maggie Nurrenbern, the Democrat?
TOTAL NOLTE............................40.1%
TOTAL NURRENBERN..................36.5%
“Anti-Red Flag” Hearing
Sen. Denny Hoskins “anti-red flag warning” bill, SB 998, will be heard in the Senate Transportation Committee this morning (9AM).
Any federal order of protection or other judicial order issued by a court to confiscate any firearm, firearm accessory, or ammunition from any law-abiding citizen shall be considered an infringement on the people's right to keep and bear arms…
And
Kaiser Health News looks at the impact of a 1996 ban on federal funding of research into gun violence. Read it here.
· It is no secret that many strategies proposed today — from school metal detectors to enhanced policing, to the optimal timing and manner of safely storing guns, to restrictions on gun sales — have limited scientific ballast because of a lack of data.
· Mark Rosenberg was the founding director of the CDC’s National Center for Injury Prevention and Control and his agency, over time, was pivotal in helping to fund research on gun violence and public health.
· Rosenberg thought then that gun violence could go the way of car crashes. The federal government spent $200 million a year on research to redesign roadways and cars beginning in the 1970s, he said, and had seen death rates plummeted.
· A study published in 1993 concluded that “guns kept in the home are associated with an increase in the risk of homicide,” a finding on risk factors that prompted an uproar in conservative political circles. To newly elected representatives in the midterm “Republican Revolution” of 1994, the research was a swipe at gun rights. The NRA stepped up lobbying, and Congress passed what’s known as the Dickey Amendment in 1996… “None of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control.”
Procedure for House Ethics Committee
For those attempting to suss out what might be happening in the House Ethics Committee (another meeting is scheduled for today), the procedure passed last year is instructive. Find it here. I would guess that the committee is in the “formal hearing” step (Rule 9).
How this all ends…
The resolution shall state the Committee's findings and conclusions on each allegation in the complaint with the recommendation that the House take one of the following actions:
(1) Letter of reproval;
(2) Reprimand;
(3) Censure; or
(4) Expulsion.
Knodell Passes
Joe Knodell passed away. He was the father of Robert Knodell, the Director of Department of Social Services. See his obituary here.
Joe had a long and distinguished career in public education, serving as a teacher, principal, and Superintendent of Schools in the East Carter and Twin Rivers school districts. He served three terms as an elected member of the Three Rivers Community College Board of Trustees and was appointed by Governor Matt Blunt to serve on the Missouri State Board of Probation and Parole…
Joe truly enjoyed spending time with his grandchildren and seeing those students he had educated succeed in their lives…
New Candidate Filings
· Cecelie Williams (Republican) filed to run in House 111. She will face Rep. Gary Bonacker. This is a rematch of sorts. Bonacker prevailed in a 4-way primary in 2022. Williams placed second, earning 25.7% of the vote to Bonacker’s 52.1%.
· Bryce Lockwood (Democrat) filed to run in House 137 where he’ll face Republican Rep, Darin Chappell. This is a safe Republican seat.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (pro-reproductive rights IP) - $10,000 from Anna Reilly (Winston Salem, NC).
Chris Wright 4 MO Governor - $19,200 from Christopher Wright.
MO State Teachers Association Legislative Impact Co - $7,500 from Central Region.
MLPAC - $5,280 from SF of Missouri, LLC (Spartanburg, SC).
Lobbyist Registrations
Amy Blunt and Mark Habbas added MCTA – The Missouri Internet & Television Association.
Jim Foley, Chris Liese, Andy Foley, Joe Bruns, Tony Dugger, and Craig Redmon added Hahn DeBoef LLC.
Jim Foley added Mike Rayner.
Tony Dugger deleted Alliance For Responsible Consumer Legal Funding.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Kit Bond (the big 8-5), Rep. Aaron McMullen (the big 4-0), and Christine Page.