MOScout Weekender: Here Comes Club for Growth - Pro-Choice IP Submitted - Senate 13 Poll - WWTW Filibuster Version and more…

Here Comes Club for Growth

Looks like we’ll be seeing the first round of TV ads from the Club for Growth….

·       Club for Growth is backing Will Scharf in the Republican AG primary.

·       Their Missouri campaign committee had $2.1 million cash on-hand as of the last filing, the second largest war-chest (after Mike Kehoe’s PAC).

Pro-Choice IP Signatures Submitted

Missouri Independent reports that “a campaign to enshrine abortion rights in Missouri’s constitution said Friday that it collected more than 380,000 signatures in just three months, more than twice the likely total needed to qualify for this year’s statewide ballot.”

·       Since June 2022, nearly every abortion has been illegal in the state with the exception of medical emergencies.

·       In order to put a citizen-led constitutional amendment before voters, the campaign had to collect signatures from 8% of voters in six of Missouri’s eight congressional districts. That total equates to more than 171,000 signatures.

·       JoDonn Chaney, a spokesman for the Secretary of State, said it is unlikely signature verification will be finalized in time for any of the ballot measures to land on the August primary.

What It Means

·       380,000 is a surprisingly strong number of signatures considering the late start that the campaign got. 

·       The cushion may be necessary since I expect real scrutiny from pro-life Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft.

·       Dems are counting on the ballot question to keep the abortion issue front and center during the campaign and boost Dems in areas where the current total ban is considered too extreme.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 13

Survey conducted April 30 to May 2, 2024. 300 likely 2024Democratic Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout.  Find the full report here.

Q1: Candidates in the Democratic primary for Missouri State Senate District 13 are Angela Walton-Mosely and Chantelle Nickson-Clark. If the primary election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Angela Walton-Mosely: 34%

Chantelle Nickson-Clark: 13%

Undecided: 53%

Q2: What is your opinion of Elbert Walton, Jr.?

Favorable: 7%

Unfavorable: 10%

No opinion: 83%

Q3: Generally speaking, do you think it’s better to expand charter school options or keep resources focused on existing public schools?

Expand Charters: 27%

Focus on Existing: 53%

Not sure: 20%

Q4: Generally speaking, should your representatives fight for Democratic values even if it means gridlock or should they be willing to compromise with Republicans in order to get something done?

Fight: 32%

Compromise: 48%

Not sure: 20%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Gone Too Soon

I asked lobbyists, “Which termed-limited senator will be the biggest loss for the body?”  23 replies…

RESULTS

1. Lauren Arthur… 21.7%

2. Bill Eigel… 4.4%

3. Denny Hoskins… 0%

4. Andrew Koenig… 4.4%

5. JJ Rizzo… 56.5%

6. Caleb Rowden… 13%

Sample of Comments

·       Rizzo has real legislative talent. Huge loss for both parties because he’s able to wade through the personalities and noise.

·       Rizzo has been the most even tempered and calculated minority leader in years. Doesn't blow up the chamber unless absolutely necessary. For decorum, few have been better.

·       Lauren did the work, she was able to help bring the women of the senate together and accomplish great things and get them funded. Killing legislation is easy, that’s the way the system is designed. Getting your ideas into law is really tough and almost impossible if you are in the super minority but she found ways.

·       Rizzo and Rowden are tied for biggest loss

·       [Rizzo] said it himself, "The fear is the next senators will be believe the way we operate right now is the norm". Decorum and respect for the process will continue to be lost.

Who Won the Week? FILIBUSTER VERSION

Cindy O’Laughlin – Kept 18 members on every quorum call and eventually broke the Freedom Caucus filibuster without yielding to any of their demands.

Freedom Caucus – Somebody call Guinness! There’s a new world record holders of the longest filibuster in the Missouri state senate!

Cody Smith – He’s in a much better position to hold the House position on budget items. And to donors, he’s a better bet than Koenig, who was part of the chaos.

Jill Carter – Breaking up is hard to do.  But she’ll have more impact as a free agent.

Democrats – Who needs streaming when you have the drama of Republicans in the Senate?

The Senate – As one observer put it, “Maybe the reports of the demise of actual governing in Missouri were premature?”

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Osage River Gaming and Convention (Ozark casino IP) - $141,500 from Bally's Corp. (Providence, RI).

Osage River Gaming and Convention - $141,500 from RIS Inc.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $35,000 from William Johnson (Naples, FL).

The Rowdy PAC - $10,000 from J & J Gaming of Missouri, LLC (Effingham, IL).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Ryan Clearwater, and Jason Kander.

Sunday: Mike Hafner, David Day, and John Hickey.