MOScout Weekender: Nuggets from the Miller Suit - Senate 7 Poll - Hallway Still Hearts Kehoe - House Primaries and more…
Baker Tragedy
The visitation and funeral services for Davy and Natalie Lloyd, the daughter and son-in-law of Rep. Ben Baker, will be next week. Both will be at Bible Holiness Assembly of God, 906 N Summit St., Neosho, MO 64850. Visitation: Monday, 3PM – 7PM. Funeral Service: Tuesday 10AM.
Miller Files Suit Against Plocher and Jetton
Dana Miller, Chief Clerk of the House, filed suit yesterday against Speaker Dean Plocher and his chief of staff, Rod Jetton, detailing a hostile work environment.
The Missouri Independent has the full lawsuit uploaded in their story here.
Miller says she was “subjected to retaliation based upon her reporting of possible campaign violations and/or ethics violations by Defendant Plocher and what she believed to be violations of law, regulations, policies and constituted mismanagement, a gross waste of funds or abuse of authority, violation of policy, waste of public resources, and/or breaches of professional ethical canons.”
The lawsuit rehashes some of the drama which was already known – the double-dipping, Plocher balking at signing subpoenas for the Ethic Committee etc. But also gives a behind-the-scene look at the firings and resignations of several staffers (Kenny Ross, Julie Baker (resigned), Erica Choinka) as Plocher/Jetton were, according to Jetton’s words in the lawsuit, “seeing ghosts.”
There are plenty of details which politicos will find interesting…
· Miller quotes Plocher saying that “Stupid Republican women…they are an invasive species.”
· Miller says Rep. Dale Wright told her repeatedly that he “had concerns that Speaker Plocher’s push to purchase Fireside was directly related to a large campaign donation”.
· Wright’s LA, Danyale Bryant told Miller of an early December meeting between Wright and Jetton “to discuss the chief clerk’s authority. Bryant relayed that neither Jetton or Wright knew enough about the House Rules or policies for the meeting to be productive.”
· In January, Miller declared that “she would no longer meet with Jetton alone and advised other female staff also not to meet with him alone.”
What It Means
· I don’t think this changes the SOS race much. There’s already a pretty thick opp research folder on Plocher. And it’s still unclear if any of his opponents will have the financial wherewithal to use it.
· There have been various rumors about where Jetton would land after his year with Plocher. At one time there was a rumor that he wanted to be incoming Peaker Jon Patterson’s chief of staff. At another time, that he wanted to take Miller’s spot as chief clerk. The allegations in this suit will likely make it harder for Jetton to retain a high-profile position.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 7
Survey conducted May 29 through May 31, 2024. 377 likely 2024 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. See the full report here.
Q1: Candidates in the Democratic Primary for Missouri’s 7th State Senate District are Pat Contreras and Patty Lewis. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Pat Contreras: 13%
Patty Lewis: 21%
Undecided: 66%
Q2: What is your opinion of Greg Razer?
Favorable: 26%
Unfavorable: 7%
No opinion: 66%
Q3: What is your opinion of Jason Kander?
Favorable: 53%
Unfavorable: 7%
No opinion: 40%
Q4: What is your opinion of labor unions overall?
Favorable: 82%
Unfavorable: 6%
No opinion: 13%
Q5: Generally speaking, should your representatives fight for Democratic values even if it means gridlock, or should they be willing to compromise with Republicans in order to get something done?
Fight: 31%
Compromise: 55%
Not sure: 14%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Gubby 2024
I asked lobbyists, “Who will win the Republican gubernatorial primary?” 21 replies…
RESULTS (Results from November 2022 in parenthesis; there was also a “someone else” option then). Interestingly, there’s been pretty much no change in the lobbying corps outlook.
1. Jay Ashcroft… 19% (20%)
2. Bill Eigel… 9.5% (6.7%)
3. Mike Kehoe… 71.4% (60%)
Sample of Comments
· Money talks and b********t walks. Kehoe pulls out the close win over Ashcroft who narrowly loses because Eigel pulled some of his support.
· [Kehoe]: Works harder than anyone. Money advantage. Connects with voters. Relationship developer. Statewide association grass roots. Makes for a strong candidate.
· [Kehoe]: It's an optimistic pick but I don't think there has been a candidate in recent history with this kind of character, quality and personality to best represent our state. His personal story alone is enough and if people in Missouri don't see that - then our state motto of "Show-Me" is pointless.
· [Kehoe]: Only if Ashcroft nor Eigel gets a major influx of cash
· When people say life is not fair, they are correct. Some people are born rich, some are born with superior genes, and Jay Ashcroft is the son of John Ashcroft. That’s the sole reason he wins.
· I'm saying Kehoe maybe because of money maybe because it’s the popular opinion in the halls. I think anything is still possible.
· [Kehoe]: If the money advantage stays the same, he will pull it out.
Who Won the Week?
Who Won the Week will return next week.
House Primaries
House 110 – Rep. Justin Sparks (see bio here) is running for re-election. He’s opposed by Scott Ottenberg (see his website here), a city councilman in Wildwood. They have about the same cash on-hand (Sparks $6,047 versus Ottenberg $6,862, with $6,296 in debt). Sparks is the incumbent. And yet this has the feel of establishment versus outsider, with Sparks playing the part of outsider. I think it’s his to lose.
House 111 – Rep. Gary Bonacker (see his bio here) faces a rematch with Cecelie Williams (see her Facebook here), though it’s a little bit different match. In 2022, Bonacker scored a victory with 52% while Williams ran second in the four-way race with 26%. Now it’s just a one-on-one duel. Still Bonacker remains the heavy favorite. Bonacker has $12,764 COH while Williams didn’t form her candidate committee until after the quarterly deadline.
House 113 – Rep. Phil Amato (see his bio here), running for his first re-election, faces Joe Maddock (see his website here) who runs an insurance firm. Amato should coast to an easy win. Amato has $35,465 COH with $15K in debt; Maddock has $2,108 COH.
House 115 – This is the Jefferson County seat that Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway is vacating to run for state senate. Two Republicans, Bill Lucas and Dominic Lawson, have filed to run. Lucas (see his website here) is a veteran. He has $4,562 COH, and he’s the favorite over Dom Lawson, a self-employed carpenter with no web presence. Lawson’s self-funded campaign has $140 COH.
$5K+ Contributions
Protect Majority Rule - $22,666 from Sixteen Thirty Fund (Washington, DC).
Protect Majority Rule - $25,666 from Article IV (Arlington, VA).
Protect Majority Rule - $25,666 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $25,000 from Missouri Leadership Forum.
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $10,000 from MLPA Legislative Fund.
H-PAC (pro-Houx) - $5,001 from JB PAC.
CN-MO PAC - $175,000 from Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits of Missouri.
POL PAC - $17,500 from J.E. Dunn Construction Company.
Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $15,000 from C.E. Bollmeier Co., Inc.
Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Collins & Hermann, Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rosetta Okohson, Miles Ross, Randy Pietzman, Steve Lynch and John Wright.
Sunday: Rep. Chris Lonsdale, and Dick Burke.