MOScout Daily Update: Bailey Leads in CFG Poll - Corley Adds $250K to SOS Bid - No Panic on Chiefs - Police Report in Senate 11 and more…
Club for Growth Poll Shows Bailey Lead
The Club for Growth website has a MO AG poll. Club for Growth is supporting Will Scharf. (Third party PACs, unable to coordinate, will often post information on their website for the candidate committee to find and use.)
The poll – see it here – was conducted at the start of the month with a margin of error of 4.4%.
· It shows Scharf trailing Attorney General Andrew Bailey 35%-17% with 40% undecided.
· And that he hadn’t gained any ground in the previous two months. At the end of March, Scharf had trailed 29%-10% with 61% undecided.
· Furthermore, more respondents said Bailey was a stronger supporter of Donald Trump than Scharf (22%-17%) despite this being one of Scharf’s biggest selling points.
But the poll showed a path for Scharf. It ran through potential attack against Bailey – including, interestingly, taking campaign contributions from the Ketchmark law firm.
After the negatives, Scharf led Bailey 40%-21%. And after highlighting his work for Trump (If you learned that Will Scharf is one of the leading attorneys defending Donald Trump against Democrats’ politically-driven prosecutions in federal court… ) Scharf’s lead jumps to 48%-21%.
However… when Bailey’s likely attack line is tested (if you learned that Will Scharf worked in Joe Biden’s corrupt Department of Justice…), Scharf’s support deflates again and Bailey retakes the lead 32%-19%.
No Panic on Chiefs - Yet
Kansas City Star reports that “the Kansas Legislature on Tuesday passed an aggressive plan to attract the Kansas City Chiefs and Royals, triggering a process that could lead to the state issuing billions in bonds to build new stadiums – debt that will take decades of sales tax, sports betting and Lottery revenues to repay. The sweeping proposal, which Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is expected to sign or allow to become law without her signature, sets up a confrontation between Kansas and Missouri over the future of the teams.”
Despite the fact that our governor has a Chiefs tattoo, it seems he’s taking these developments with relative calm. There’s no panic, no sudden call for a special session.
· One politico says that calling a special session is possible – if Jay Ashcroft or Bill Eigel wins the gubernatorial primary. It’s assumed that they’d be less accommodating to incentives to match Kansas and keep the Chiefs. In that case, there’d be more urgency to get something done before Parson leaves office.
Corley Adds $250K
Jamie Corley jumpstarted her secretary of state campaign this week with a $250,000 check. At her kick-off event Tuesday night, she said another $50,000 had been raised.
While $300,000 won’t blanket her message statewide. It does immediately put her in the mix. Besides Speaker Dean Plocher, who has over $1M, no other candidate has been able to raise more than a couple hundred thousand in this race.
· The SOS race looks like a brain-teaser to me. Do any of the candidate use their limited war-chests hitting Plocher, or do they assume he’s damaged enough from his bad press? Where will each of the candidates focus their resources to get the most votes? Will they aim to dominate a geographic area or be able to target specific demographic? Where’s the biggest bang for their limited bucks?
SOS Message Wars
While I’ve been focused on money, one reader thinks the messages might actually matter…
Interestingly, three candidates in the Secretary of State primary took wildly divergent approaches to the crowded primary this week.
· Shane Schoeller, at an event hosted by bipartisan group Show Me Integrity, emphasized his extensive experience in government as the primary differentiator boosting him over his opponents.
· Jamie Corley, at her kickoff event, emphasized her status as a political outsider and argued, that experience as an elected official is a negative, not a positive.
· Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman spent the week highlighting her pro-life bona fides, most notably her endorsement from the Susan B. Anthony List.
Will one of these approaches break through?
Endorsement Watch
Several new endorsements in the past few days.
· Rep. Chris Dinkins received the sole endorsement from Missouri Right to Life in her Senate 27 3-way primary with Rep. Jamie Burger and Jacob Turner.
· As mentioned above, Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman pulled down an endorsement from the Susan B Anthony Pro-Life America. MRL had already endorsed Sen. Denny Hoskins for SOS when Coleman pivoted into the race.
· MEC also won the support of Senate Floor Leader Cindy O’Laughlin. See it here.
· Missouri Hospital Association endorsed Mike Kehoe for governor. I don’t recall MHA making endorsements before.
Smith Event Raises $30K
Rep. Travis Smith’s recent event in West Plains (see pictures here) reportedly raised $30,000. Smith is facing Rep. Brad Hudson in Senate 33 (Karla Eslinger resigned).
· Hudson held a big money lead ($100K) as of their April quarterly filings, though Eslinger’s PAC is now supporting Smith, evening things out a bit.
Senate 11: Police Report Details Erratic Behavior
According to a police report Senate 11 Republican candidate David Martin was involved in an assault.
“Upon arrival I witnessed five to six people outside of the Jackson County GOP building all highly agitated. I was contacted by Ms. Carolyn Caton who advised Mr. David Martin had just assaulted Ms. Teresa McBride and Mr. Martin then locked himself inside the GOP building and had taken a female volunteer hostage.”
· This is a 3-way Republican primary. Martin was not considered a likely winner of that race even before this news surfaced.
· Carolyn Caton is challenging Rep. Chris Sander in the House 33 Republican primary.
Mosley on Ed Bill
Sen. Angela Mosley penned an op/ed in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explaining why she voted against the education bill this session. Read it here.
· [T]he state budget adopted in the recently ended legislative session doesn’t include enough money to fund the increase in teacher pay or pre-K that was promised with SB 727. I believe its inclusion in the bill was just a gimmick to give cover to some legislators who voted for it — as well as to fool the public into thinking the bill was of some benefit to the public schools.
· For the provisions for increased teacher’s salaries and increased funding for pre-K to become a reality, the money must be agreed to during a supplemental budget process, which is unlikely to occur, since the Republican-controlled Legislature failed to include such funding in the state budget even as they passed SB 727…
· Of course, if there is no funding for teacher salaries and for improvements in pre-K education, guess what would still happen?: Expanded charter schools and private school vouchers, which will drain critically needed funds from our public schools.
Lobbyists Registrations
Jay Milton added Bayer U.S. LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
Jamie Corley For Missouri - $250,000 from Jamie Corley.
Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $100,000 from Trial Lawyers for Justice (Bozeman, MT).
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from John Oconnell.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Richard Arnoldy.
American Dream PAC - $7,500 from Kevin Mainord.
American Dream PAC - $5,650 from Patrick Murphy.
Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $25,000 from Thomas Walsh.
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $7,500 from Good Day Farm Missouri LLC.
Liberty and Justice PAC - $7,500 from Carrollton Grow Operations LLC.
Chantelle PAC (pro-Nickson-Clark) - $10,000 from Quality Schools Coalition.
Gladius PAC (pro-Christofanelli) - $10,000 from Great Northwest PAC (pro-Rusty Black).
The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $10,000 from Great Northwest PAC.
NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $20,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government PAC.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $25,000 from Tom and Karen Stern.
The 1821 PAC - $42,500 from RightCHOICE Managed Care, Inc. (Cincinnati, OH).
Spirit of Missouri - $42,500 from RightCHOICE Managed Care, Inc. (Cincinnati, OH).
MO Society of Anesthesiologists Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Ozark Anesthesia Associates Inc.
Safer Families for Missouri - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy (Alton, IL).
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $15,000 from Mary Anne Sedey.
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $10,000 from Sedey Harper Westhoff, PC.
Renew Action PAC - $10,000 from Ranger Power, LLC (Chicago, IL).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from CN-MO PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Eric Schmitt, and Jami Wade.