MOScout Daily Update: Nelson DQed in House 86 - Kehoe to Skip Debate, What It Means - Case for Kunce? and more…

Trina DQed in House 86

In what will amount to a major shake-up in the House 86 Democratic primary, I am told reliably that Trina Nelson has been disqualified.  A credible source says that the Secretary of State’s office has received a letter from the Department of Revenue disqualifying her.  This is presumably for a non-payment of taxes. But we’ll see as details emerge.  The disqualification hasn’t been posted on the SOS website yet.

Nelson is endorsed by termed incumbent Rep. Joe Adams, as well as Reps. Donna Appelbaum, Doug Clemens, Deb Lavender, Ian Mackey, Chantelle Nickson-Clark, and Barbara Phifer.

·       This makes Jeff Hales, a realtor and University City Councilmember, the clear favorite.  See his website here.  He’s backed by Sen. Tracy McCreery. 

Kehoe To Duck Debate – And What It Means

Post-Dispatch reports that Mike Kehoe won’t participate in the gubernatorial debate scheduled for next month. 

“Kehoe’s two main rivals — Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and state Sen. Bill Eigel — have accused Kehoe of dodging debates in the lead-up to the Aug. 6 primary. Kehoe’s campaign has said he also won’t attend a July 11 forum at Parkway West High School.”

What It Means

This scenario would have been almost inconceivable to me at the start of this race.  Ashcroft held incumbent-like name ID, and Kehoe was the relatively unknown lieutenant governor.  In that situation it would be Team Ashcroft who would considering skipping the debate, and maintaining their lead, and Team Kehoe who would be itching for a chance to land a punch or pounce on a gaffe.

The fact that these roles are reversed with six weeks left shows a confidence from the Kehoe campaign that with their money lead, and the tightening polls, they’re right where they want to be.

And

Tonight, it’s Attorney General Andrew Bailey who’s skipping an AG forum.  It’s hosted by the Federalist Society.  And perhaps Bailey fears a tilted playing field as Federal Society honcho Leo Leonard is backing Bailey’s primary opponent Will Scharf.  The Post quotes Bailey spox Mike Hafner, “They set this date without confirming it even worked for us.”

Should Hawley Be Worried?

One MOScouter wonders if Senator Josh Hawley isn’t the shoo-in for re-election that the political class assumes he is.

·       While the recent Emerson poll does show Hawley with a 9-point lead against Lucas Kunce, in the crosstabs, Kunce is beating Hawley among independents by 7 points.

·       “The poll shows Lucas Kunce in an even stronger spot than Jason Kander was in at this point in 2016. TV ads haven't even started yet. And Kunce has way more money than Kander.”

·       “Hawley has made fighting abortion the core of his career. This is his first election since Dobbs, and he'll likely share the ballot with an abortion referendum. So, this quote from Emerson should be pretty worrying: ‘The share of voters who say abortion is the most important issue facing their state in Missouri is higher than any state poll we have conducted in the past year.’”

Um, Wrong Date

·       Of course it is better to put the day before the election than the day after…

eMailbag on Cupps

Vivek Malek winning the week because of Rep. Scott Cupps’ legal crisis is indeed “the sweetness of schadenfreude.” But Malek also wins because Cupps' problems render him useless as a surrogate attack dog for his best friend Rep. Cody Smith, Malek's primary challenger.

New Committees

Stronger Missouri was formed.  This appears to be affiliated with the Democratic Governors Association.         

Lobbyists Registrations

Tamitha Rene’ Ague deleted Missouri Psychological Association.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from Promontory 150 LLC.

Life and Liberty MO PAC (Pro-Moon) - $10,000 from John and Janell Brunner family trust.

Life and Liberty MO PAC - $20,000 from MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC.

Sander for Missouri - $12,345 from Christopher Sander.

8th Senatorial District Democratic Committee - $12,000 from Friends of Hillary Shields.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Alex Curchin, Dani Moore, Shelley Kenney, and Kevin Austin.