MOScout Daily Update: Bailey Gets Farm Bureau - Fitz for Smith - The Strategic Dem - Taxpayers Unlimited Reloads - House Primaries and more…
Bailey Gets Farm Bureau
Press release: “Andrew Bailey has displayed a willingness to fight for property rights during his time in office,” said MOFB President Garrett Hawkins. “He understands that flawed federal climate and energy policies impact all Missourians, and his vision of making rural Missouri a vibrant place to work and live aligns with our members’ vision of the future of agriculture in the state.”
Why It Matters
This endorsement – one of the big three (with NRA and MRL) in rural Missouri – will dovetail into the Bailey team’s effort to paint of Scharf as coastal elite.
Fitz Backs Smith
Tomorrow night in Springfield Rep. Cody Smith is having a fundraiser for his treasurer bid. He’s got some nice names on the invite…
The one that hops out is Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick. Fitz is a former treasurer as well. And he’s known Smith going back to his days in the House. But it’s unusual for a statewide Republican to endorse against another sitting statewide Republican. Maybe some MOScouters out there can think of a similar situation, but I can’t.
The Strategic D
With statewide victories generally thought to be out-of-reach for Democrats in Missouri these days, some Dems may decide they can have the biggest impact by taking a Republican ballot this August. I asked a few Dems, “who should the strategic D vote for if they decide their vote is more meaningful in the Republican primary this summer?”
There are two approaches. One is to vote for the “most reasonable” Republican. The other is to vote for the most flawed or vulnerable Republican with the hopes a Dem could make magic happen in November. In either case, you don’t want to waste your vote on someone who has no chance of winning. Although one Dem shrugs, perhaps correctly, that if it’s a down ballot race “anyone can win.”
Here's the unofficial Strategic Dem endorsement list…
· Governor – Mike Kehoe.
· LG – Lincoln Hough.
· SOS – Shane Schoeller (though some say Jamie Corley, or possibly Dean Plocher)
· Treasurer – Vivek Malek.
· AG – toss up (“Bailey-Scharf is a no win situation,” “I might write in Clarence Thomas as a more moderate choice”).
May Revenues Drop
State tax receipts fell in May. Compared to May 2023, revenues were 7.8% lower. That amounted to $125 million less than a year ago.
But there’s no need to panic. As we enter the final month of the state’s fiscal year, revenues are up 1.4%, in line with the consensus revenue estimate.
Taxpayer Unlimited Reloads
In the large contributions (below), there’s a whopping $250,000 check from the International Association of Fire Fighters, Local 42 PAC into Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc.
Taxpayers Unlimited is the Kansas City firefighters’ political action committee. And while it’s unknown what they’re prepping for, one pol speculates that it could be to help out some of their endorsed candidates, such as Mike Kehoe or Lincoln Hough.
House Primaries
As I summarize the House primaries, I’m adding them to the 2024 Watch…
House 128 – Rep. Mike Stephens term limited. There’s a hot 4-way race to succeed him. The front-runner is presumed to be Christopher Warwick, the mayor of Boliver. See his website here. But he faces two tough competitors. Derral Reynolds is a pastor. See his website here. And John Best (see his website here), a cardiologist and FORMER mayor of Bolivar. Warwick defeated him in 2019. There’s also perennial candidate, Bill Yarberry. Best has funded his campaign with a $50,000 loan. So, he has a huge money lead. He has $51,667 COH to Warwick’s $3,171, and Reynolds’ $1,370. However a quick search of the web shows that Best may have some baggage.
House 132 – This is Minority Leader Crystal Quade’s district. She’s term limited and it’s target for Republicans. There are two Republicans running. Stephanos Freeman (see his Facebook here), ran against Quade in 2022. But it appears his opponent is that favorite. Bernadean McAfee is a realtor. There’s no COH comparison because both started their committees after the April deadline, but I expect that McAfee will put more money together.
House 138 – This is Rep. Brad Hudson’s district. He’s forgoing a fourth term to run for state senate. Two Republicans are vying to take his place. Tom Franiak (see his website here) is the owner of Midwest Cabinet and Design. He has $15,824 COH, with $14,210 in debt. Burt Whaley (see his website here) has far less COH, only $4,325. But he’s probably the favorite here due to his involvement in the Stone County Republican Central Committee.
House 140 – Rep. Jamie Ray Gragg (see his bio here) is running for re-election and look safe. Gragg only had $1,902 COH as of his last quarter, but his opponent, Danny Garrison (see his Facebook here), hasn’t even started a campaign committee yet. The two faced off in 2022 and Gragg won 60%-40%.
eMailbag: Scharf and Trumpism
Scharf has to show his allegiance to Trump through the media appearances to make up for the fact his campaign's largest donor Paul Singer ($1.5 million) is also a leading Never Trumper, in addition to Scharf's consulting firm costing Trump hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign contributions over the last two years by running Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign.
$5K+ Contributions
Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc. - $250,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters, Local 42 PAC.
American Dream (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from IAFF FIREPAC VIC Missouri (Washington, DC).
American Dream - $15,000 from Professional Fire Fighters of Eastern Missouri Local 2665.
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $25,000 from Apex Oil Company, Inc.
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom (reproductive rights IP) - $30,000 from Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes (Overland Park, KS).
Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $21,936 from American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri, Inc.
Protect our Kids PAC - $15,000 from MO Republican Attorneys For Civil Justice PAC.
Building Communities PAC Inc - $15,050 from O’Reilly Development Company LLC.
Lobbyists Registrations
Maddie McMillian Green added Conduent Inc. and Its Affiliates, and Tyler Technologies.
Steven Tilley, Thomas Robbins, Brittany Hyatt Robbins, Christopher Schoeman, and Alec Rosenblum added Missouri Wellness, LLC.
David Sweeney deleted Green Street St. Louis.
Andy Blunt deleted Monarch-Chesterfield Levee District.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Ryan Johnson.