MOScout Daily Update: Anonymous Freedomers - Where GOP Votes Live - Bailey Gets LELC (and $250K) - Final House Primaries and more…

Anonymous Freedomers

When I wrote a couple weeks ago about the Freedom Caucus accomplishing one of their main goals (a smaller budget) last session, I quoted a source that House Budget Chair Cody Smith had joined the Freedom Caucus mid-Session.

That drew some attention because there was no announcement of his joining, and he wasn’t – and still isn’t – listed on the State Freedom Caucus Network Coalition website as a member of Missouri’s legislators.

A closer look at the website reveals that some Freedom Caucus members – for reasons that aren’t clear – are apparently choosing to remain “anonymous” members…

Bailey Bits

·       Attorney General Andrew Bailey was endorsed by the Law Enforcement Legislative Coalition, an association of Missouri police chiefs.  “Andrew Bailey has taken action to protect law enforcement officers through diligent support of higher penalties for individuals who commit acts against law enforcement officers. He has also intervened and corrected the surge in crime that was caused by the lack of prosecution in the City of St. Louis, which had resulted in increases across the region. His quick actions, expertise and steadfast determination to correct that problem helped to quell criminal acts through that entire region. He is a person of action, not just mere words….”

·       In the large contributions (below), Liberty and Justice PAC landed another big check from Mike and Carolyn Rayner.  This $250,000 contribution puts their total giving to the pro-Bailey PAC over $1 million.

GOP Primary Vote Pools

There are fourteen Republicans running for lieutenant governor or secretary of state.  And among the crowded down-ballot races there are only a few candidates with million-dollar war-chests to truly run statewide.  And even they may worry whether they will be able to break through the cluttered election environment to deliver their message effectively to primary voters.

With this in mind, I decided to look were Republican primary votes come from as candidates with limited resource might try to play to their geographic strengths.

I compiled the 2020 Republican gubernatorial results by county, and then placed them in the different media markets across the state.  You can see my spreadsheet here. 

Some areas have experienced growth or decline since then; some are turning redder or bluer. And I expect turnout to be higher this year.  But I used the Gubby 2020 because I wanted a top-ticket race and a presidential cycle primary.

Here’s how the various media market’s break down according to my numbers. 

St. Louis: 28.3%

Kansas City: 17.1%

Springfield: 8.7%

Cape Girardeau: 8.2%

Columbia: 8.1%

Joplin: 6%

St. Joe: 2.4%

Hannibal: 1.1%

Remaining: 20%-ish

Bush and Hawley Unite on Radiation Compensation

Politico reports on Missouri’s “political odd couple.” Read it here.

·       Two Missouri lawmakers, Democratic Rep. Cori Bush and GOP Sen. Josh Hawley, are at odds on almost everything. Bush has called for Hawley’s expulsion from Congress. Hawley has pejoratively described Bush’s “Defund the Police” stance as “the future of the Democratic Party.”

·       But they are both deeply concerned about those in their state affected by uranium poisoning from processing nuclear weapons and have been fighting to get their residents — and people in other states who have been affected — added to the program…

·       In a sign of the urgency of the issue, Bush, a member of the far-left group of lawmakers known as ‘The Squad,’ has unapologetically aligned herself with Hawley, a populist conservative who is loathed by the left — despite the fact that Bush is currently locked in a heated primary battle.

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Parson announced 19 appointments.  Many of these are recess appointments of folks he pulled back after resistance during the legislative session.

·       Lyda Krewson was appointed to the University of Missouri Board of Curators.

·       Winston Calvert and Daniel Isom were appointed to the Bi-State Development Agency of the Missouri-Illinois Metropolitan District.

·       Dr. Tawni Ferrarini and Dr. Thomas Prater were appointed to the State Board of Education.

·       Dudley McCarter was appointed to the Coordinating Board for Higher Education.

·       Ronda Schell was appointed to the Missouri Parole Board.

·       Ed Elder was appointed to the Kansas City Board of Police Commissioners.

·       Emmet Pierson, Jr. was appointed to the Jackson County Sports Complex Authority.

·       Reverend Darryl Gray and Tracy Henke were appointed to the Missouri Workforce Development Board.

·       Jerel Poor II was appointed to the Administrative Hearing Commission.

·       Whitney Smith was appointed to the Missouri Ethics Commission.

·       Steve Ahrens and Jason Schott were appointed to the Governor’s Council on Disability.

·       Dr. Tony Taylor and Kimathia Wright were appointed to the Missouri Developmental Disabilities Council.

·       Victoria Babb and Louise Secker were appointed to the Missouri Community Service Commission.

·       Jessica White was appointed as the Lafayette County Clerk.

·       Tammy Kirchner was appointed as the Scotland County Clerk.

House Primaries

This is the final batch of House primaries.  They’ve all been added to the 2024 Watch.  Later this month I will add a column listing the MOScout forecasted winner to each race.

House 155 – This is where Rep. Travis Smith is vacating to run for state senate.  Two Republicans are vying to replace him.  Julie AuBuchon (see her Facebook here) appears to be the Trumpier of the two candidates.  But I’m not sure what sort of resources she’ll have as she filed a Limited Activity report. Matthew Overcast (see his website here) is an attorney.  One reader describes him as a “rural hipster.”   

House 156 – Rep. Brian Seitz (see his bio here) is running for his 3rd term. He faces a credible candidate, but should be safe regardless.  His opponent is Carolyn Boss (see her Facebook here), a real estate agent, who has served on the Branson School Board.  Seitz has $4,446 COH, and Boss started her committee after the deadline.

House 160 – Rep. Ben Baker (see his bio here) is running for his final term.  His opponent, Mike Farnham (see his Facebook here) filed a Limited Activity report meaning he hasn’t raised more than $500.  Baker, meanwhile, has $42,977 cash on-hand.  This won’t be close.

House 161 – Rep. Lane Roberts (see his bio here) is running for final term. Like the other reps in this batch, his re-election looks safe.  He’s got a rematch with Thomas Ross (see his Facebook here) who he beat 72% to 27% in 2022. Roberts has $35,297 COH, while Ross has $537.

House 163 – This is Rep. Cody Smith’s seat.  There are two Republicans running to replace him, but it doesn’t look like it will be a close race at all.  Cathy Jo Loy is a well-known Republican activist.  See her website here.  She has $17,965 COH, while her opponent, an engineer, Zach Hatcher, formed an “exemption committee.” That means he doesn’t plan to raised or spend more than $500.

$5K+ Contributions

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $250,000 from Mike and Carolyn Rayner.

Ready to Lead (pro-Lewis) - $15,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.

Ready to Lead - $7,500 from Heavy Construction Laborers Local Union #663 PAC.

Ready to Lead - $5,100 from Construction & General Laborers' Local 264.

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $20,000 from Operating Engineers Local 101 PAC.

Lincoln PAC - $20,000 from I.U.O.E Local 513 Political and Education Fund.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $16,827 from Eric Schmidt.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern, Trent Skaggs, and Nimrod Chapel.