MOScout Daily Update: Schwadron Hits Plocher - No Tax Cut - Scharf Touts SCOTUS Win - Polls in Senate 15, 27 - Contreras Quarter and more…

SOS Race: Schwadron Hits Plocher

Here’s the mail piece from Rep. Adam Schwadron’s PAC that is hitting mailboxes in St. Louis County and St. Charles County, and is being placed in 42 county weekly newspapers.  It’s the second week in row and it sounds like they’re planning a new piece every week until Election Day.

Schwadron’s PAC believes that these weekly inserts will give it “saturation in the SOS race.”

They sound confident in their strategy: “Simple recipe, stay lean and convert all money into message. No overpriced consultants. No waste either...no t-shirts, no hats, no stupid Lincoln Day suite for thousands just to flex in front of the competition. 1 committed donor, 1 smart and likeable candidate, and a team more focused on winning THIS race than getting a contract signed for the next race. Just start to finish strategy that nobody saw coming and it's far too late to duplicate.”

Tax Cut Trigger Just Missed

It looks like the final fiscal year state tax receipts will come in about $194 million over the previous year, narrowly missing the $200 million trigger to cut another sliver off the state income tax rate.

Scharf Touts SCOTUS Win

In an email blast the Scharf campaign touts Will Scharf’s role in yesterday’s Supreme Court decision offering Donald Trump some protections of immunity from prosecution.

Senate 15 Poll

Team Gregory is circulating a poll from Amber Integrated, conducted from June 27 - July 1, that shows David Gregory leading his 3-way primary.  Gregory 30%, Mark Harder 13%, Jim Bowlin 7%, with 45% undecided.  See it here.

Senate 27 Poll

Team Burger is circulating an American Viewpoints memo that shows “[Jamie] Burger leads with 33% of the vote, followed by [Chris] Dinkins (20%) and [Jacob] Turner (10%). 31% of voters are undecided.”  See it here.

·       Jamie Burger’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 36:12, compared to 30:5 for Dinkins. Jacob Turner is considerably less defined with a favorable to unfavorable ratio of only 13:2.

·       Given how high the undecided vote is, this is a very competitive race. However, if Burger has the resources to fully articulate his messaging, he will win the primary.

Delegate-Gate Fallout?

This email was forwarded to me.  It’s from a Republican committeeman down in Texas County.  (Texas County at 1179 square miles is the largest of Missouri’s 114 counties).  Bob Green, whose wife Leann Green is the Vice Chair of the State GOP Party, says that he’s switching from supporting Jay Ashcroft to Mike Kehoe.  I’m told that the reason behind his defection is that he didn’t appreciate “Ashcroft representing the Eigel rebellion” in the contest of the state convention in front of the RNC. 

Myers Doesn’t Coast

For a guy without a primary and in a +45% Republican district, Rep. Jeff Myers doesn’t take anything for granted…

eMailbag on Senate 7

From a Contreras ally: From a Contrares ally: To paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of the demise of Pat Contrares “reports of his upcoming loss have been greatly exaggerated.”  Pat is expected to report nearly $280,000 on hand on the June report, He also has numerous real financial commitments that will  be reported in the next couple of weeks.  To Patty’s “ally,” the race has just begun.  This race is wide open. No one knows how this will play out.

$5K+ Contributions

Paladin PAC - $150,400 from J&J Ventures of Missouri, LLC (Effingham, IL).

Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $45,000 from Conservative Leaders of Missouri LLC.

Committee for Liberty - $40,000 from Missouri Growth PAC.

Committee for Liberty - $40,000 from MO Majority PAC.

Fire Fighters For Kehoe PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from MO State Council of Firefighters.

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $20,000 from RAI Services Company (Winston-Salem, NC).

Neighbors United (pro-Contreras) - $75,000 from MID-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas area PAC.

Eastside Forward PAC (pro-Washington) - $30,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.

Red Hawk PAC (pro-Dinkins) - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Gladius PAC (pro-Christofanelli) - $25,000 from Another Viceroy PAC.

Cultivating Freedom PAC (pro-Richey) - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Independence Leadership PAC (pro-Sauls) - $25,000 from UFCW District Union Local Two PAC.

Bootheel Values PAC (pro-Burger) - $20,000 from Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean).

417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $25,000 from Another Viceroy PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Enterprise Holdings Inc. Political Action Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,100 from McGirl for State Rep.

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (higher minimum wage) - $6,000 from Marc Katz (Missoula, MT).

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages (higher minimum wage) - $6,000 from Jane Katz (Missoula, MT).

Hy-Vee Employees PAC Federal Committee - Missouri - $18,750 from Hy-Vee Inc Employees PAC (Des Moines, IA).

Lobbyists Registrations

Anne Schiavone added Missouri Association of Trial Attorneys.

Matthew Roney deleted Reach Healthcare Foundation.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Derek Coats, Cliff Davis, Jake Buxton, and TJ McKenna.

MOScout Schedule

I’ll be off Thursday through Sunday for a long Fourth of July weekend.