MOScout Daily Update: New State Senate Polls Show Small Leads and Large Undecideds - Lee Scolds MRL - Mystery “Alliance” for Cody and more…

Still lots of undecideds in these hot Senate primaries…. And interesting that Bill Eigel is winning, but just barely, in his old Senate district.

MOScout/Remington Poll: Senate 21

Survey conducted July 27 through July 30, 2024. 317 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Q1: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Missouri’s 21st State Senate District are Kurtis Gregory and Doug Richey. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Kurtis Gregory: 35%

Doug Richey: 25%

Undecided: 40%

Q2: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Governor of Missouri are Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel, and Mike Kehoe. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jay Ashcroft: 29%

Bill Eigel: 14%

Mike Kehoe: 28%

Someone else: 6%

Undecided: 24%

Q3: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Attorney General of Missouri are Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Andrew Bailey: 33%

Will Scharf: 23%

Undecided: 44%

MOScout/Remington Poll: Senate 23

Survey conducted July 27 through July 31, 2024. 307 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-5.7% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Q1: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Missouri’s 23rd State Senate District are Adam Schnelting, Rich Chrismer, Phil Christofanelli, and Dan O’Connell. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Adam Schnelting: 30%

Rich Chrismer: 10%

Phil Christofanelli: 25%

Dan O’Connell: 3%

Undecided: 32%

Q2: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Governor of Missouri are Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel, and Mike Kehoe. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Jay Ashcroft: 26%

Bill Eigel: 28%

Mike Kehoe: 23%

Someone else: 5%

Undecided: 18%

Q3: Candidates in the Republican Primary for Attorney General of Missouri are Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Andrew Bailey: 40%

Will Scharf: 26%

Undecided: 34%

Lee Scolds MRL

After being shown an anti-Mike Kehoe mailer from Missouri Right to Life PAC, pro-life advocate Sam Lee posted a Twitter thread reciting Kehoe’s many pro-life efforts throughout the year.  See it here.

He concluded with this zinger: We all may have differences over which candidate in any party would make the next best Governor for Missouri. But let’s not make the truth a casualty when describing a candidate’s #prolife position or character as we head towards #ElectionDay on August 6....  BTW, if the other two #prolife candidates for Governor – @BillEigel  or @JayAshcroftMO – had their pro-life bona fides impugned in a similar way, I’d also share the excellent experiences I’ve had with them in my years at the State Capitol as pro-life lobbyist.

Mystery “Alliance” Hearts Cody

In the large contributions (below) Prosperity Alliance sent $70,000 to the pro-Cody Smith Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC.   This comes on the heels a similar contribution ($95,000) from the Alliance to the same Smith PAC yesterday. Prosperity Alliance is a 501c4, so doesn’t have to disclose donors.  It has no phone or website listed. The address is a Staples store in Fairfax, Virginia.

·       One reader: After this election you may want to write about how fucked up the structure of campaigns in Missouri is with oodles of money going from one PAC to another to hide its purpose and origin and how bad for good government it is.

Mail Gone Wrong

Someone sent me this Doug Richey mailer which ended up across the state in the wrong district.  (I’m actually surprised, with the amount of mail flying and number of different races every consultant has, that this doesn’t happen more often.)

Carter Blames CarShield Tactics on COVID?

Post-Dispatch reports on CarShield getting dinged by the FTC for aggressive and deceptive telemarketing practices.  “Instead of delivering the ‘peace of mind’ promised by its advertisements, CarShield left many consumers with a financial headache.”

CarShield’s general counsel, Mike Carter, last on the ballot for secretary of state, is quoted in the article.

“It is common knowledge that the pressures on the automotive industry were magnified monumentally during that time,” Carter said in the statement. “ … While we are certain that the anomalies that led the FTC to examine our company were brought about by the unfortunate circumstances that hit our industry during the pandemic, CarShield is meeting this new challenge with the same open mind and positive attitude we implemented at that time and is excited by the changes this interaction has brought about.”

Lobbyists Registrations

Terry Tatum added Utenzi Global.

Nexus Group deleted Greater St. Louis Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Ameren Missouri.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Missouri Soybean Association.

American Dream PAC - $15,000 from Missouri Senior PAC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from CFM Insurance Inc.

American Dream PAC - $5,500 from Pharmacist Political Action Committee of Missouri.

BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $25,000 from Strong Law.

BILL PAC - $10,000 from Gorny Dandurand.

Defend Missouri (pro-Scharf) - $1,400,000 from The Concord Fund (Vienna, VA).

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $100,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri Kansas Area PAC.

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from NEMO Leadership PAC.

Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Great Northwest PAC.

Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC (pro-Cody Smith) - $70,000 from Prosperity Alliance, Inc. (Fairfax, VA).

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Enterprise Holdings Inc. PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Jim Walton (Bentonville, AR).

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Spire Missouri Inc.

Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $10,000 from Greater Kansas City AFL-CIO Project 2000.

Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee - $15,000 from Missouri Gaming PAC.

The 100 PAC - $6,400 from Gail Griswold.

PG PAC - $11,000 from The Penman Group.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Lewis Rice LLC.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Schlichter Bogard.

1776 PAC - $10,000 from Paladin PAC.

1776 PAC - $7,000 from Citizens United to Back the Blue.

UAW Region 4 Midwest States PAC (MO) - $6,000 from Midwest State Cap Exchange (Ottawa, IL).

Danny Boyd for Sheriff - $9,504 from Daniel Boyd.

Friends of SJSD - $12,365 from News Press Media Group.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Shannon Weber, and Bill Reiboldt.