MOScout Daily Update: Higher Ed “Shakeout” Coming? - House Battlegrounds - Hand-Counting Flaws - MATA and MHA Impact Players and more…
1 Big Thing: Higher Ed Shakeout Coming?
Aligned’s recent monthly update highlighted the confluence of trends creating a difficult operating environment for higher education. Demographics, as well as changing societal values of college, portend smaller freshmen classes. That’s expected to bring greater financial pressure to higher education in the coming years. And capitol veterans know that in tight budget years, higher education is always one of the first pots of money for budget cuts.
The Scholarship Foundation of St. Louis published a "financial solvency alert" that show which colleges are facing a substantial risk of shutting down… Below are the institutions that SFSL indicates are in the greatest danger of closure due to recent financial scores and disclosures:
· Fontbonne University*
· Harris-Stowe State College
· Rockhurst University
· Webster University
The institutions below are on the SFSL watch list:
· Columbia College
· Culver-Stockton College
· Evangel University
· Maryville University of St. Louis
· Missouri Baptist University
· Missouri Valley College
· Southwest Baptist University
· Williams Woods University
*Fontbonne University announced its closure earlier this year.
The Aligned newsletter also points to a quote from Dudley McCarter, a member of the Missouri Coordinating Board for Higher Education, in the Post-Dispatch. “There has always been a perception, and I think it is reality, that Missouri has more universities than it needs. The next three or four years is going to be a real shakeout.”
· Interesting to note, that aside from Harris-Stowe, these universities and colleges don’t appear to have any lobbyists representing them in Jefferson City.
Starting General Election 2024 Watch
In the 2024 Watch grid, I’ve started the first screen for House battleground races. I’ll be adding to this throughout the week, and may end up adding a race and subtracting several as I go through them. This first listing is districts which look swingy on a partisan basis. It includes 26 districts.
And
Incoming Speaker Jon Patterson’s district fits the criteria to be included in this list. A few MOScouters noticed that JP’s general election opponent, Kevin Grover (see his website here), received more votes than Patterson last Tuesday. These turnout quirks happen and aren’t necessarily an indication that the district has turned blue. Still, it’s something to keep an eye on.
· One lobbyist: “Patterson is a skilled politician that I think has reflected his district well but those aren’t the type of conditions you want the future Speaker to be in as he’s supposed to be plotting how to grow (or maybe in this cycle just protect) the majority in your caucus.”
Primary Battles to Spill into Session
The engagement from special interests in the governor’s race – and also state senate races – may have residual impact in how various issues unfold next session.
· Missouri Association of Trial Attorneys has been on a spectacular run in Jefferson City. When I first started covering state politics, there was reliably one high-priority tort reform bill each session. But since, the Conservatives Caucus started gumming up the Senate several years ago, MATA has pitched a shut-out. The question is whether the massive amount of money that trial attorneys have lavished on Republicans – Bill Eigel for governor, and Freedom Caucus candidates in senate races – will bring any backlash from Democrats, their former stalwart allies in the legislature. One lobbyist opines: “With Kehoe winning they will need all the legislative help they can get… The plaintiffs’ bar will always be powerful but subtle shifts in alignments make the difference between someone sitting down and standing for hours on end.”
· Missouri Hospital Association was much more active in this primary than they’ve been in the past. They endorsed Mike Kehoe early, and then spent serious money in the final days to help him. MHA also went big on a pair of state senate races – winning one (Kurtis Gregory), losing one (Brad Hudson). Meanwhile, Stand Up for US PAC – railing against the 340B legislation which passed – came in heavy on the opposite side of MHA. Hospitals and government regulation and funding are as intertwined as they’ve ever been, and (assuming Kehoe defeats Crystal Quade) hospitals will have a steadfast friend in the governor’s mansion.
Hand-Counting Headaches Ahead?
Sen. Denny Hoskins is the favorite to win secretary of state in November; he’s campaigned on bringing hand-counting to the office’s oversight of elections.
This study from February – which includes some insights from Osage County in Missouri – highlights the challenges hand-counting would entail.
The three major problems are greater inaccuracies, higher costs, and delays.
Full hand counts require elaborate logistics—far beyond what is required in an automated tally, in which the voting system completes many tasks automatically and reliably. The additional complexity of a full hand count, paired with the number of people who handle ballots, also means there are more steps in the process where a hand count can fail or where the system can be exploited or challenged by motivated actors.
Vernon County Certification
KSN reports that Vernon County’s certification of the election was delayed after a hullabaloo by Cyndia Haggard, the outgoing Vernon County Republican Central Committee Chairwoman. Haggard had been behind the “vetting” process which was roiled Republican circles earlier this year.
· Vernon County Clerk Adrienne Lee says a recount that was supposed to take place Friday afternoon involving representatives from both the Democrat and Republican parties did not take place…
· Haggard insisted on being the Republican representative for the recount, against the county clerk’s advice, because Haggard was on the ballot. Haggard refused to be sworn in as part of the recount process, and after a tense exchange and a phone call with the Secretary of State’s office, Haggard stormed out of the courtroom.
· Lee says being sworn in is required by state law for anyone involved in the election process.
Meanwhile
Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft accepted the results and endorsed Mike Kehoe for governor.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson announced two new appointments…
· The Honorable Erin S. Burlison, of Weldon Spring, was appointed as Circuit Judge for the 11th Judicial Circuit.
· The Honorable Brice R. Sechrest, of Farmington, will be appointed as Circuit Judge for the 24th Judicial Circuit.
Lobbyists Registrations
Bradley Pryor added William Nolte.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $100,000 from Conservative Leadership for Missouri.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Scientific Games LLC (Alpharetta, GA).
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $10,000 from Amerindian Missouri Company.
MO Drive Fund - $85,000 from International Brotherhood of Teamsters Missouri PAC Federal Cmte.
Missouri Gaming PAC - $20,000 from Boyd Gaming Corporation (Las Vegas, NV).
Majority Forward - $15,000 from Centene Corporation.
theLOUpac - $7,500 from Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc.
Osage River Gaming and Convention - $25,932 from Bally's Corp (Providence, RI).
Osage River Gaming and Convention - $17,254 from RIS Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Sen. Barbara Washington, Rep. Mike Haffner, Sharon Geuea Jones, and Vicki Schneider.