MOScout Weekender: Final GOP Statewide Poll Has Ashcroft and Kehoe TIED! - SOS Race Still Wide Open - 3-Way Scrum for LG - Malek and Bailey Ahead…

Final MOScout Poll: Statewide GOP

Final Republican statewide poll has…

·       Jay Ashcroft and Mike Kehoe TIED with 15% still undecided.

·       Holly Rehder and Dave Wasinger right behind Lincoln Hough in the LG’s race (32% undecided).

·       Denny Hoskins up a sliver against Shane Schoeller in the SOS’s race, but really anyone’s race with the leader at 13% and 37% undecided.

·       Vivek Malek with the widest lead of anyone, up 20 points against Cody Smith (27% undecided).

·       And Andrew Bailey looking solid up 11% against Will Scharf (29% undecided).

Survey conducted by Battleground Connect on behalf of Missouri Scout July 30 through July 31, 2024. 896 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.

Q1: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Governor are Darrell McClanahan III, Jeremy Gundel, Bill Eigel, Robert Olson, Jay Ashcroft, Mike Kehoe, Chris Wright, Darren Grant, and Amber Thomsen. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Darrell McClanahan III: 7%

Jeremy Gundel: 2%

Bill Eigel: 17%

Robert Olson: 1%

Jay Ashcroft: 26%

Mike Kehoe: 26%

Chris Wright: 1%

Darren Grant: 1%

Amber Thomsen: 4%

Undecided: 15%

Q2: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Lieutenant Governor are Holly Rehder, Dave Wasinger, Lincoln Hough, Paul Berry III, Tim Baker, and Matthew Porter. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Holly Rehder: 19%

Dave Wasinger: 18%

Lincoln Hough: 22%

Paul Berry III: 3%

Tim Baker: 3%

Matthew Porter: 3%

Undecided: 32%

Q3: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Secretary of State are Valentina Gomez, Shane Schoeller, Denny Hoskins, Adam Schwadron, Jamie Corley, Dean Plocher, Mary Elizabeth Coleman, and Mike Carter. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Valentina Gomez: 9%

Shane Schoeller: 11%

Denny Hoskins: 13%

Adam Schwadron: 3%

Jamie Corley: 5%

Dean Plocher: 6%

Mary Elizabeth Coleman: 9%

Mike Carter: 7%

Undecided: 37%

Q4: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for State Treasurer are Cody Smith, Andrew Koenig, Lori Rook, Vivek Malek, Tina Goodrick, and Karan Pujji. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Cody Smith: 13%

Andrew Koenig: 10%

Lori Rook: 12%

Vivek Malek: 33%

Tina Goodrick: 3%

Karan Pujji: 2%

Undecided: 27%

Q5: Candidates in the upcoming August Republican Primary Election for Attorney General are Will Scharf and Andrew Bailey. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Will Scharf: 30%

Andrew Bailey: 41%

Undecided: 29%

Bits

·       STL Mayor: Former Rep. Michael Butler, and current St. Louis City Recorder of Deeds, is prepping a mayoral bid.  That’d make a three-way way as he joins incumbent Mayor Tishaura Jones, and Alderwoman Cara Spencer.  And… one MOScouter thinks Gabe Gore could grab support if he jumped in

·       Treasurer’s race: Folks called for an investigation into one of Vivek Malek’s donors, what appears to be a family business.  I’m always skeptical of “scandals” that emerge the weekend before an election.

·       LG’s race: Dave Wasinger asked a court to take down the Lincoln PAC ad, saying it was full of falsehoods.

·       Help us Fitz, you’re our only hope!: Tishaura Jones called for an audit of the St. Louis Public Schools.  It comes days after Rep. Donna Baringer issued a similar call.

MOScout’s Hallway Index No Question, Sound Off

No question this week. Just letting lobbyists anonymously sound off on the election.

Eigel can't break out of third place in the Gov's race. I'm really looking forward to the coming meltdown from him and his team.  Also, the SOS race is nuts. No one has been able to stand out from the pack. Seven candidates have a legitimate path to victory.

Lobbyist and insiders are just terrified of Ashcroft or Eigel winning. That in itself really tells you a lot about Jeff City and how deep the rot and corruption has taken hold. What do you think will happen if these guys win? They will somehow get rid of Medicaid? Or is it that they are so used to their sweet insider deals, people are so accepting of the everyday corruption that they act terrified that someone who is an “outsider” (either the sos or a state senator!) would be the Governor of Missouri.  I mean looking around the state we think having the insiders running this place has gone well for twenty years? We really think that Missouri is some sort of governance paradise? I mean StL has only been one of most violent cities for 20 years, but what are people obsessed about talking about? Giving money to the Chiefs… yep let’s keep the insiders in power.

People should have the ability to spend whatever they want on campaigns, as it is "free speech" - however somewhere in this "freedom" the responsibility to be honest about what you are doing and saying in your "free speech" has been burned, burned again, and the ashes of truth incinerated.  Furthermore, consultants should be held accountable for the money they take from these PAC's…  Read through some of the PAC reports - in some cases you will find 100% of the expenditures go to consultant fees and zero to promote candidates. Zero!! Others have fundraising expenses that far exceed their receipts of donations. Candidates, quit asking for money for PACs that don't do what they claim.

Although he made a lot of noise in the Governor’s race, Eigel will finish as he always does - with nothing to show for it except a participation trophy.

Trump endorsements in Missouri are about as valuable as a Yelp review.

I just wanted to recognize Sam Lee. I have known and worked with Sam for a long time. He is a hardworking ally and a very tough opponent, but most of all he is a decent person who cares about the process and people. I may not agree with some of his positions, but he is pro-life all the way. Sam works for kids who are vulnerable regardless of their gestation or age. I’m not surprised in the least that he came to the aid of M Kehoe. 50 members of the General Assembly, especially Republicans, emulating this dignity and thoughtfulness can change the state. Thanks Sam!

Are campaigns broken? Maybe it will be clear after the election that we all missed something and a candidate broke the code on what primary voters want, but right now it seems like every single campaign has all of the same messages. Was there a lane for the economy, crime, healthcare, education, or anything other than China and immigration when that has been saturated for over a month?

Who Won the Week?

Who Won the Week will return after the primary.

Limbaugh Wins Bench Promotion

Press release: Governor Mike Parson announced judicial appointments to the 13th, 19th, 22nd, and 27th Judicial Circuits.

·       The Honorable Christopher K. Limbaugh, of Jefferson City, was appointed as Circuit Judge for the 19th Judicial Circuit.  Judge Limbaugh serves as an associate circuit judge for the 19th Judicial Circuit…

·       Benjamin J. Miller, of Holts Summit, was appointed as Circuit Judge for the 13th Judicial Circuit…

·       Patrick E. Richmond, of St. Louis, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for the 22nd Judicial Circuit…

·       Blane Baker, of Lowry City, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for St. Clair County in the 27th Judicial Circuit…

$5K+ Contributions

BILL PAC (pro-Eigel) - $80,000 from American Jobs and Growth Fund (Vienna, VA).

BILL PAC - $25,000 from Dollar Burns Becker & Hershewe LLC.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from United Association Political Education Committee (Annapolis, MD).

Defend Missouri (pro-Scharf) - $500,000 from Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee.

Defend Missouri - $20,000 from Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee.

Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC (pro-Cody Smith) - $10,000 from Rachel and Greg Logsdon.

Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC - $8,000 from Mighty Missouri PAC.

NEA Advocacy Fund - $85,000 from NEA Advocacy Fund (Washington, DC).

Nick Mebruer for Circuit Judge - $32,500 from Nick Mebruer.

CN-MO PAC - $25,000 from Bally's Corporation  (Providence, RI).

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Mazzie Christensen, Dan Engemann, and Bev Randles.

Sunday: Don Soph, Robin Carnahan, and Dick Wiles.