MOScout Weekender: Another $5M Into Sports Betting Campaign - Senate 15 Poll - Hallway Sees Dems Picking Up House Seats and more…

Another $5M Into Sports Betting

Betfair Interactive added $5 million to Winning for Missouri Education, the campaign committee working to pass sports betting on the November ballot.

·       This huge contribution brings their war-chest to over $15 million.

Freeman Sues to Knock Dean Off Ballot

Stephanos Freeman, the Republican candidate in House 132 (Crystal Quade district), has sued to remove the Democratic candidate, Jeremy Dean, from the ballot.

According to his suit (read it here), Freeman alleges the Dean doesn’t meet the residency requirement.

·       Dean attorney filed a motion to dismiss.  See it here.

MEC on Conway Complaint

The Missouri Ethics Commission announced its ruling on a complaint which was filed against Commissioner Kathie Conway.  “The complaint alleged that Commissioner Conway failed to file a personal financial disclosure statement for the 2023 calendar year… Ms. Conway failed to file the required statement by May 1, 2024. On or about August 24, 2024, the Missouri Ethics Commission made aware that Commissioner Kathie Conway had passed away. Therefore, because Commissioner Kathie Conway failed to file her 2023 Personal Financial Disclosure Statement, the Commission found reasonable grounds exist to support a violation of Chapter 105 RSMo but dismiss as moot due to Commissioner Conway’s untimely passing.”

And

The ruling was issued by Stacey Heislen, Interim Executive Director, indicating that Liz Ziegler has apparently left the Commission.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 15

Survey conducted September 17 through September 19, 2024. 418 likely 2024 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See full report here.

Q1: Candidates in the General Election for Missouri State Senate District 15 are Republican David Gregory, Democrat Joe Pereles, and Libertarian Jeff Coleman. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

David Gegory: 46%

Joe Pereles: 42%

Jeff Coleman: 1%

Undecided: 11%

Q2: What is your opinion of Kamala Harris?

Favorable: 47%

Unfavorable: 48%

Undecided: 5%

Q3: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 44%

Unfavorable: 52%

Undecided: 4%

Q4: Generally speaking, are you pro-life or pro-choice?

Pro-life: 46%

Pro-choice: 43%

Not sure: 11%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: House Prediction

I asked lobbyists, “What's your expectation for House races this year?” 21 replies…

RESULTS

1. Republicans add 4+… 0%

2. Republicans add 1-3… 4.7%

3. Wash… 9.5%

4. Democrats add 1-3… 61.9%

5. Democrats add 4+… 23.8%

Sample of Comments

·       [Dems 4+] Has the potential to be a wave.

·       Dems on defense will keep them from gaining any ground.

·       [Dems 1-3] It would be more if Hannah weren’t running such a tight operation while the Dems are wasting resources trying to beat Patterson.

·       It feels like the ground level will benefit from the pro-choice IP. If people are actually talking about Speaker-elect Patterson’s seat needing money, Dems 1-3.

·       D’s really should add 5-8, but they consistently underperform because of candidates, money or messaging. I’m not sure why this would be different.

·       Hannah Sutton is doing an amazing job, but Dean Plocher sold out several St. Louis County seats to protect his own during redistricting. And Trump and abortion are taking a toll on Republicans in the suburbs.

·       A3 turnout helps Ds in marginal districts

·       [Dems 4+] The votes on the most extreme abortion policies in the country will finally have consequences. I'm not going to be shocked when Patterson loses his re-election.

·       The Republicans are at their high water mark with this map under redistricting. They lose one in STL County, pick up one in Springfield for a net wash on election day.

Who Won the Week?

Emily Kalmer – Honored by the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network their top government relations professional.

Aaron Willard – After six years serving Governor Parson, Willard transitions to a new gig, Chief Partnership Officer at the API Innovation Center.

Missouri Statewide Republicans – The Emerson College poll doesn’t show any damage from the abortion issue to Republicans running statewide.

Joe Pereles – The MOScout poll this weekend shows Republican David Gregory narrowly ahead, but it also contains a lot of good news for Pereles in the highly contested Senate 15 race. For example, Pereles is within the margin of error; he leads with Independents, and Trump is underwater.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Winning for Missouri Education - $5,000,000 from Betfair Interactive US LLC (Jersey City, NJ).

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Cheyenne International LLC (Grover, NC).

American Dream PAC - $5,650 from Jean Paul Montupet.

SAFE Missouri (pro-Phifer) - $15,000 from Mary Neal.

Show Me Growth PAC (pro-David Gregory) - $20,000 from Conservative Leadership For Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean).

Northland Forward (pro-Nurrenebern) - $7,600 from Alliance for Progress, LLC.

Missourians for Constitutional Freedom - $16,110 from Planned Parenthood Great Rivers.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Burns & McDonnell.

MoCannTrade PAC - $6,000 from Chris Geisert.

MoCannTrade PAC - $6,000 from Daniel Ambrosino.

Missouri Hemp PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Hemp Trade Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer, Joe Driskill, Vinnie Clubb, and Roman LeBlanc.

Sunday: David Willis, and Bruce Franks.