MOScout Daily Update: Homefront PAC to Stay Home - Dems Mull Shot At JP - Blunt’s Forecast - Sauer Givers MRL PAC $350K and more…
Upcoming Choices: Where to Spend Money
With just under six weeks until Election Day, Democratic and Republican leadership in the House and Senate will be facing some tough campaign spending decisions. They’ll have to choose where to spend money defending seats or trying to flip seats.
On the Senate side, one assumes that Senate 15 (Koenig termed) will be a focal point of GOP resources. That seat appears to be the most competitive in the state with Republican David Gregory emerging from a tough Republican primary, and Democrat Joe Pereles running strongly for Democrats.
After that, Republicans will have to determine if they feel that Senate 11 (Rizzo termed) – which leans Republican – is safe enough that they can divert resources to trying to flip Senate 17 (Arthur termed).
Democrats face the exact opposite calculation. Is Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern safe enough against the Jerry Nolte challenge in Senate 17 that they can spend money trying to hang on to the redistricted Senate 11?
One wild card I’m not too wild about is Senate 23. Rep. Adam Schnelting won the Republican primary. And some think he’s so far right that he could be vulnerable. In the words of one lobbyist: Dist 23 should replace 1 on your power rankings. It won’t flip, but it’s more likely than the 1st.
According to July campaign finance reports, the Senate Republican and Senate Democratic campaign committees showed an edge to Dems…
· Republicans’ Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $525,773 COH
· Democrats’ Majority Forward - $786,097 COH
And
If there’s any thought that Stephen Webber’s huge Homefront PAC will swoop in and provide a last-minute boost to Dems, you shouldn’t count on it. Homefront has $415,750 cash on-hand. But it sounds like the pro-Webber PAC is planning to keep resources focused on Boone County, helping House races or local races there.
· Webber felt Senate Dems betrayed him when they accepted the Boone County charter expansion as a deal on the massive SB 727 bill last session.
Spending Money: Dems Target House 30?
Meanwhile, on the House side of the spending decisions, some Dems think that they have a chance to take House 30 where Speaker-elect Jon Patterson is running for re-election.
The argument in favor of the gambit is that they’d have a trophy win to tout and raise more money nationally next cycle.
The argument against it takes precious resources from other more winnable/defendable seats, (and JP’s a nice guy).
· Those gaming out this scenario think Rep. Alex Riley would step into the void for a 4-year speaker term should JP go down.
The House fundraising according to the 30 Day After Reports shows an asymmetrical advantage to Republicans…
· House Republican Campaign Committee - $1.4 million COH.
· Democratic House Campaign Committee - $186,711 COH.
And
There’s a fog of war aspect to House races. They’ll poll, of course. But polls are not the crystal balls many folks believe they are.
It’s very hard to get an accurate sample in a House race. If you’re lucky enough to manage a 400-person sample, that leaves you with a +/- 5% margin of error which you allows you to say a race is “maybe close?”
HRCC will poll regions to help get a lay of the land. For example, to get a sense of how South St. Louis County looks, or the state of Clay County, and then use that information to inform their decisions.
Blunt Forecast
Husch Blackwell Strategies CEO Andy Blunt has published a forecast for national elections. He runs through the various paths for Kalama Harris and Donald Trump, as well looks at the likelihood of the Senate and Congress flipping majorities. Find it here.
Looking at the race for the White House, Andy notes, “Georgia remains the most important state on the 2024 national election map.” And for the control of Congress, Andy points to the open House seats as an indicator, “only nine of the 55 opens can be considered competitive.” And on the Senate side, “While Republicans appear to be in strong position to obtain the majority regardless of the presidential race outcome, it is far less certain that they can exceed 51 members.”
Hawley and National Ban
Following up on last week’s debate where it seemed that US Senator Josh Hawley had moved more to the middle on abortion by rejecting a national ban, one reader notes that “Hawley appears to have a different definition of a ‘national ban’ than just about everyone else!”
Rolling Stone succinctly explains: Conservative Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley claimed Friday he opposes a “nationwide ban” on abortion, before immediately saying he wants to see “reasonable federal restrictions.” One such federal restriction, he said during a Missouri Senate candidate debate on Friday, should be “when the baby is capable of feeling pain” — a phrase mirroring the legislation he co-sponsored to impose a national, 15-week abortion ban.
Sauers Funds Pro-Life PAC
Since the start of August, the Missouri Right to Life PAC has received $530,000 in large contributions. I’d guess the bulk of these funds will be used to oppose Amendment 3, the pro-choice ballot question.
· The Sauer family has been responsible for $420,000 of those contributions, nearly 80% of those funds. And of that subset John Sauer, who recently argued for Donald Trump before the Supreme Court, has given $350,000.
eMailbag on Stadiums
The Cardinals should focus on their dysfunctional and incompetent leadership prior to asking for any public funds…
Lobbyists Registrations
Claudia Alley added Missouri Hospital Association, and Missouri Primary Care Association.
Steven Tilley, Thomas Robbins, Brittany Hyatt Robbins, Christopher Schoeman, and Alec Rosenblum added JNI Hauling LLC; and deleted Conte Enterprise Holdings LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from Richard Miller (Pittsburg, KS).
American Dream PAC - $50,000 from Jennifer Bukowsky.
American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Peabody Investments Corp.
American Dream PAC - $15,000 from Peak Investors LLC.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Flagship Council Political Action Committee Inc.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Penn Enterprise Inc. (Wyomissing, PA).
American Dream PAC - $7,200 from Missouri Pork PAC.
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $10,000 from Robert Cutler (Overland, KS).
Missouri Right to Life PAC - $40,000 from Frederic Sauer.
Missouri Right to Life PAC - $10,000 from Mary Jo Sauer.
The Rowdy PAC - $30,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
Moniteau County Republican Central Committee - $9,000 from Moniteau County Republican Club.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Steve Carroll, Lauren Arthur, Penny Hubbard, and Justin Hill.