MOScout Daily Update: Utilities Eye Ratemaking Change - 2026 Target Flips for Dems - Scharf in the Mix - Roorda Registers to Lobby and more…
Situational awareness: It’s a shortened holiday week for the legislature. They’ll gavel in at 4PM.
· The Senate starts moving bills through the process today. Sen. Curtis Trent’s General Laws committee kicks off Senate hearings at 1PM.
· Meanwhile on the House side, we’ll get Democratic committee assignments from Minority Leader Ashley Aune, and expect soon afterwards to see notices for hearings on bills.
· The front-end of session is heavy on the hearings will little floor action.
1 Big Thing: Return of the Utility Wars?
Tomorrow’s Senate Commerce Committee (2PM in the Senate Lounge) could be the start to a big battle over changes to the ratemaking process for utilities, a so-called “future test year.”
Chairman Mike Cierpiot will present two similar bills on the issue, SB 4 and SB 5.
From the summary: Under the act, beginning July 1, 2026, the test year for rate proceedings, if requested by certain utilities, shall be a future year consisting of the first 12 full calendar months after the operation of law date for schedules stating new base rates filed by the utilities, unless the Public Service Commission makes a determination that using a future test year is detrimental to the public interest. The projected total rate base at the end of the future test year shall be used to establish new base rates. New base rates shall not go into effect before the 1st day of the future test year.
Consumers Council of Missouri, in an email blast, warns their members that the change would result in higher rates.
If Future Test Year passes, we predict that Missouri future utility bills will be 10-15% higher for the same level of service. Regulated water and gas utilities would lose the incentive to cut costs, and would instead have an incentive to spend up to the top level of their estimates.
· We expect the Committee to vote on these bills on January 29, 2025.
Why It Matters
Depending on how this debate evolves, it has the potential to take a lot of bandwidth from the General Assembly. That could disrupt session, and hurt other priorities if it takes a lot of Senate floor time.
· Reading tea leaves: Watch for how aggressive Sen. Tracy McCreery’s questioning is at the Wednesday hearing. And crucially, if big corporations and industrial companies show concern.
What Dems Should Be Doing Now
With the President Donald Trump in the White House, Republicans controlling the both chambers of Congress, Republicans in every statewide office in Missouri, and supermajorities in both the State House and State Senate, what’s a Democrat to do? Recruit.
There’s no reason that 2026 can’t be a good year for Democrats in Missouri legislative races. But they need to have good candidates in the right spots.
By my count Democrats will have 7 House members terming out in 2026, while Republicans will have 26. That’s means more opportunities, more battleground seats.
It’s not a stretch to imagine that with Republicans in full control they’ll probably be guilty of policy overreach, and many Americans – particularly swing suburb voters – will be entering the “Trump fatigue” stage. It could an election cycle ripe with opportunities for Dems.
The most flippable…
· House 10 (St. Joseph) – Rep. Bill Falkner termed.
· House 30 (Lee’s Summit) – Speaker Jon Patterson termed.
· House 60 (Jefferson City) – Rep. Dave Griffith termed.
· House 94 (St. Louis) – Rep. Jim Murphy termed.
In the Senate the three best targets (in order),,,
· Senate 30 (Springfield) – Lincoln Hough termed.
· Senate 8 (Blue Springs) – Mike Cierpiot termed.
· Senate 34 (St. Joseph) – Tony Luetkemeyer termed.
But
To make the most of the possibilities, Dems need to prepare for a wave. It may or may not come, but that means recruiting strong candidates beyond the obvious battleground and into reach districts against incumbents.
· The 2026 cycle has already started…
Canada Preps Retaliation
New York Times reports that “Canadian officials are preparing a three-stage plan of retaliatory tariffs and other trade restrictions against the United States, which will be put into motion if President-elect Donald J. Trump makes good on his threat to impose a blanket 25 percent tariff on all Canadian goods imported into the United States.”
The Canadian officials said their choice of goods was meant to be precisely targeted and aimed at political impact. They specifically want to focus on goods made in Republican or swing states, where the pain of tariffs, like pressure on jobs and the bottom lines of local businesses, would affect Trump allies.
· Canada is Missouri’s largest export market, with $6.52 billion in exports in 2023.
Scharf in the Mix
Will Scharf, former AG candidate and now White House staff secretary, was right in the middle of things as President Donald Trump signed his Day One executive orders.
And
Semafor profiles Scharf. See it here. Scharf has been with Trump through some of the incoming president’s toughest years (he served on Trump’s legal team for his election interference and Supreme Court immunity cases, for instance). His appointment is another example of the soon-to-be-president empowering a trusted ally.
Moody Obituary
See Jim Moody’s full obituary here.
Jim Moody was a dedicated public servant, accomplished scholar, and influential leader whose contributions spanned decades of impactful work in public administration and governance. His life was marked by a commitment to excellence, thoughtful analysis, service to his community and state, and above all, love for his family…
From 1989 to 1992, Jim began his tenure as the Missouri State Budget Director and was later named Commissioner of Administration for the State of Missouri, serving as the state’s chief administrative official…
Jim was widely acknowledged as one of the most prominent governmental consultants in Missouri…
Beyond his professional achievements, Jim was a wonderful man who touched the lives of many with his compassion, humor, and unwavering support. He was understanding and patient, a great teacher who mentored many young lobbyists, giving them the start they needed to build successful careers…
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment - $10,000 from David Kemper.
One KC - $10,000 from Northland Strong PAC.
Missouri Republicans PAC - $7,300 from Protect out Kids PAC.
Page PAC - $10,000 from Michael Staenberg.
YES for KC Kids - $15,000 from McCownGordon.
YES for KC Kids - $10,000 from Missouri Charter Public School Association.
Lobbyist Registrations
Jeff Roorda added L3Harris Technologies Inc, JCR Strategic Consultants LLC, ProClaims EMS Billing Inc., and Jeff Roorda.
Dan Shaul added Amway, and Missouri Retailers Association.
Colin Matthew Kinkade added Municipal League of Metro St. Louis.
Kileen Lindgren added Pacific Legal Foundation.
Ron Berry added Missouri Alliance of Boys & Girls Clubs; and deleted Boys and Girls Club of Greater St. Louis.
Jeff Smith deleted KC Recycle & Waste Solutions, Missouri Future LLC, and MO Hemp Trade Association.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Farrah Fite.