MOScout Daily Update: Revenues Drop - Richardson’s Timing - Watching Senate 4 - Vescovo’s Lobbying Launch and more…
September Revenues Drop
According to the Daily General Revenue Report, it looks like September state tax receipts dropped substantially, offsetting August’s surprise uptick.
September net general revenue was $113 million below September 2024’s number, a decline of over 9%.
That brings the total fiscal year to date number slightly on the downside, down .6%
· Important point (I’ll make again): these are nominal dollars. Revenue running below the 3%-ish rate of inflation will equal real cuts to state agency budgets.
Richardson’s Timing
The exit of Todd Richardson comes at a crucial time for Missouri’s Medicaid program. The Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP) is expected to bring about $1 billion into the state over five years, and there’s no plan yet how to spend that money.
One lobbyist described the excited state that the healthcare industry is in trying to figure out how they’re going to “participate” in the program.
Richardson is expected, though no announcement has been made, to be headed to the lobbying side of the equation as hospitals make their pitch for how the money could “transform” their services to rural Missouri.
Meanwhile
Show Me Institute’s Elias Tsapelas wonders if Missouri is gaming the system…
Missouri’s Medicaid enrollment numbers are telling a story, but it may not be one that the federal government wants to hear… PTD shifting…
PTD shifting is the process where individuals who would normally enroll in Medicaid due to their disability instead enroll as a healthy adult in the Medicaid expansion population. Why would they do this? For recipients, it makes sense because gaining access to Medicaid coverage through expansion is a much easier process. They don’t need to prove their disability; they just need to be able to show that their income qualifies. And for the state, it makes even more sense because the federal government pays 90% of the healthcare costs of someone enrolled in Medicaid expansion but only about 65% for disabled individuals…
The problem, of course, is that this is explicitly not allowed. Federal law requires that individuals enrolling in the Medicaid expansion population be “newly eligible” for services, meaning they couldn’t otherwise qualify for the non-expansion part of the program. While I have no proof this is what Missouri is doing… if [it] is true, and the federal government finds out that Missouri is effectively off-loading disabled enrollees into the Medicaid expansion population to save state money at the expense of federal taxpayers, the consequences could be severe. We’re talking hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars, that could need to be repaid to the federal authorities.
Senate 4 Update
Rep. Steve Butz added two big checks to his PAC at the quarter deadline. One was from his insurance business, and another from a charter school PAC.
I’m looking forward to seeing the filings from that race for a few reasons…
· Some folks are saying that they no longer expect Rep. LaKeySha Bosley to run. Her filing may give an indication to her plans. The addition of Chris Clark, with the subtraction of Bosley, would create an advantageous gender dynamic for former Rep. Gina Mitten. Two men and one woman in a Democratic primary tilts the field in her favor.
· Mitten held several fundraisers recently. Her campaign is consistently messaging the pro-choice issue with discipline. I’m interested to see the results in her first fundraising filing. I expect to see a lot of familiar names.
Vescovo Unveils Lobbying Practice
Former Speaker Rob Vescovo has a new website touting his experience and offering his services as lobbyist. See it here.
During his service as a state legislator and his current career as an advocate for clients on topics ranging from health care to education, Rob Vescovo has earned the reputation as an effective communicator, a hard worker, and a straight shooter who can work across party lines to achieve results for his clients. His good standing with policy makers throughout the country position him as someone who can broker deals with even the toughest customers in the Capitols. During his time as Majority Floor Leader and Speaker of the House in Missouri, and now in his service as a policy advocate, he has repeatedly proven his ability to effectively work with everyone from the staunchest conservatives to those on the other end of the political spectrum.
Wellman’s Long-Shot Bid
One MOScouter takes issue with Fred Wellman, who announced he’ll run in CD-2, saying he “omits from his bio the main way he's made his living the last several years: grifting off of Democratic donors [with candidates who] have no chance to win but can raise gobs of online money due largely to high-profile and polarizing opponents like Marjorie Taylor Greene.”
Barnes Is Back?
KMBC reports that “former Kansas City, Missouri, Mayor Kay Barnes will be appointed interim Jackson County executive… Legislative Chair DaRon McGee is expected to make the announcement at a late-morning news conference.”
Barnes made history in 1999 as the first woman elected mayor of Kansas City.
MHA on Shutdown
Missouri Hospital Association answers the question of what the government shutdown means for hospitals…
· Medicare payments to hospitals are mandatory and should be unaffected by a government shutdown.
· Medicaid is a mandatory entitlement program and CMS has confirmed there is sufficient funding through the end of CY 2025. CMS’ approval of Medicaid waivers and state plan amendments may be delayed during a government shutdown.
· The Rural Health Transformation Program is mandatory and not impacted by a lapse in government funding.
Lobbyist Registrations
Heath Clarkston, Michael Henderson, and Doug Nelson added The Poultry Federation; and deleted CoinFlip.
TaylorAnn Washburn added Missouri Farm Bureau.
Tim Green added Lake Regional Hospital.
Dan Houx added True Level Investments, Inc.
Jay Reichard added Gateway Early Childhood Alliance.
Jeff Smith and David Sweeny added Missouri Clean Energy District.
Jeff Smith deleted The Sunrise Project
Dena Ladd deleted St Louis Fashion Fund.
Janette Lohmann deleted US Bancorp Community Development Corporation, and US Bank National Association.
$5K+ Contributions
People Not Politicians - $250,000 from American Opportunity Action (Washington, DC).
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $35,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.
Missouri Alliance PAC - $7,500 from Burns McDonnell.
BUTZ STL PAC (pro-Butz) - $7,500 from Crawford-Butz and Associates.
BUTZ STL PAC - $7,500 from MOCS ACTION.
Old McDonald PAC (pro-Deaton) - $7,500 from MOCS Action.
Eigel for Missouri - $50,000 from Believe in Life and Liberty PAC.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly (Alton, IL).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Congressman Eric Burlison, Sen. Jamie Burger, Reps. Aaron Crossley and Jeff Knight, Braxton Payne, Maddie McMillian Green, David Zevan, and Dallas Ernst (the big 3-0).