MOScout Weekender: Redistricting Map Prospects Dim - RNC Text - Who Won the Week and more…

Redistricting Prospects Dim

In this weekend’s Hallway Index, the mood of lobbyists has decisively reversed on the prospects for the Trump-directed redistricting plan.  In August four of five of my surveyed lobbyists thought that it was likely or very likely that the new maps would be in place for the 2026 elections.  That number is now one in five.

Meanwhile, as you’ll see in the large contributions below, People Not Politicians, the committee collecting referendum signatures continues to show very strong fundraising.  Another $610,000 hit yesterday.

And the momentum seems to be waning nationwide.  Indiana, for example, is punting on the idea of redistricting.

But the Republican National Committee is still at work here in Missouri.  They sent this mass text out yesterday…

·       One Republican shook their head to me at the ineptitude though: “It asks if you ‘accidentally signed this.’  Signed what? Doesn’t say what petition lol”

MOScout’s Hallway Index: New Map?

I asked lobbyists, “Will Missouri have new congressional districts in place for the 2026 elections?”  21 replies…   (Results from August 9 same question in parenthesis)

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 9.5%  (42.8%)

2. Likely… 9.5%  (38.1%)

3. Unlikely…  42.8%  (19%)

4. Very unlikely… 38.1%  (0%)

Sample of Comments

·       Looks like the signatures will be there and people don’t like the perception of changing the rules in the middle of the game.

·       [Very likely] The cake is baked- we all know the outcome

·       Lots of momentum in the opposite direction but if Trump still moves the republicans the way he has they may just do it again with the lessons learned…hopefully

·       Signatures will be validated.

·       Signature gathers seem confident.

Remington/MOScout Poll:

No poll this week

Who Won the Week?

Scott Fitzpatrick – Big reelection kick-off and no primary opponent in sight.

Mike Kehoe – Three years away, but 2028 looks mighty promising.  He’s checking off campaign promises and raising money early in his term.

Shawn Furey – Republican powerbroker puts together a million-dollar event for Kehoe.

Dirk Deaton and Jill Carter – Rumors of a possible primary are good for both candidates’ fundraising prospects.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from MoCannTrade PAC.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Evergy Metro PAC.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from The Madison PAC.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Mark Moniheiser.

American Dream PAC - $5,500 from Onxy 7 LLC.

People Not Politicians - $350,000 from American Opportunity Action (Washington, DC).

People Not Politicians - $250,000 from National Education Association (Washington, DC).

People Not Politicians - $10,000 from John OFarrell (Atherton, CA).

Missouri Leadership Forum - $15,000 from Flynn Drilling Company.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Kelli Dunaway.

Sunday: Sen. Justin Brown, Rep. Marlon Anderson, and former Reps. Jeff Grisamore, Mike Person, and Cheri Toalson Reisch, and Penney Wood Rector.