MOScout Daily Update: Vogel Memo - October Revenue - Election Day - Judge Suspended - Mathews Sings to Richardson and more…
Senate 6: Vogel Polling Memo
Team Vogel likes Jake Vogel’s chances in Senate 6. According to a polling memo from Remington Research, his biography resonates with voters. See the memo here.
Publicly available biographies of different candidates were tested to see which candidate profile was most effective with voters. Vogel’s rating of 66% outpaces the next best candidate, Rudy Veit, by 31 points.
Q: Rudy Veit is completing his eighth year as a State Representative representing parts of Cole and Miller Counties. Veit is an active Catholic and full-time attorney. He is a family man with four children and six grandchildren.
More likely: 35%
Less likely: 10%
No difference: 55%
Q: Derrick Spicer is a former four-year member of the Jefferson City City Council. Spicer works full-time in sales for a local hotel group and is active with various community organizations. He is the father of two and lives in Jefferson City with his wife.
More likely: 12%
Less likely: 20%
No difference: 68%
Q: Chuck Gatschenberger is a former six-year state representative, representing parts of Warren and St. Charles counties. Gatschenberger works as a financial planner and is an active member of St. Louis area community organizations. He is the father of three children and is divorced from his wife.
More likely: 5%
Less likely: 33%
No difference: 62%
Q: Jake Vogel is a political outsider and is president of his family business, a Coca-Cola distributorship. He served in the U.S. Army Rangers, engaging in more than 350 combat missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Vogel is active in his community with his wife and three children.
More likely: 66%
Less likely: 6%
No difference: 28%
Election Day
A couple elections to watch today…
· In Jefferson City, the extension (until 2060) of their 7 percent lodging tax is before voters. News Tribune reports that “more than 400 Jefferson City voters had cast their ballots early – an indication of the interest the proposal has drawn.
· In Jackson County, Question 1 would make the county’s assessor an elected position. With the property tax controversy, there’s a push to inject some democratic accountability into the process.
Mathews Sings Farewell to Richardson
Watch Kirk Mathews strum and sing a farewell to Todd Richardson, departing as Missouri’s Medicaid chief. See the video here.
“But the lobbyists are circling. They’re sniffing ‘round the door. Todd just grins and hollers, ‘I ain’t takin’ calls no more.’”
October Revenues Rebound
We’ll get the official numbers from the Office of Administration soon, but it appears that state revenues rebounded in October, rising 8.5%. That’s $76 million higher than October 2024. About half was attributable to income tax receipts and half was fewer refunds.
· Fiscal year-to-date, we’re now slightly positive, up 1.47%.
· I would note, again, that this is still below the inflation rate. That means fewer “real” dollars available for the budget.
Lynxwiler Suspended
Judge Steven F. Lynxwiler was suspended. According to the order (see it here), he was in “violation of Rules 2-1.2, 2-2.1, 2-2.5, and 2-2.7 of the Code of Judicial Conduct.”
O’Laughlin Preps Renewables Regulatory Legislation
Senate Pro Tem Cindy O’Laughlin writes on Facebook that she wants more regulatory control over wind and solar installations…
My thoughts on wind and solar industrial projects. It is almost bill filing time and I fail to see how the state of Missouri (including county commissions) continue to allow industrial installations of these with NO oversight or regulatory control. This would not be allowed in any other type of industrial installation and yet these are.
Scharf Parties
Daily Mail has a picture of Will Scharf’s Halloween costume. Scharf, dressed in a fluorescent vest with 'Ballroom Construction Team' written on the back, was spotted busting a move inside at least two separate VIP booths, and with at least three different women, before making a mess on the dance floor when he ran into a table full of other people's drinks.
Blunt on 2026 Elections
Andy Blunt published his first look at the 2026 mid-terms. Read it here. Among his observations…
· The most likely redistricting outcome is a net Republican gain of 5 House seats.
· The [Senate] map is a challenging landscape for Democrats, with 22 Republican-held seats compared to only 13 Democratic-held seats in play.
· The most notable Republican primary is in Texas, where incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces a serious challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats view Paxton as a weaker general election candidate, potentially making Texas more competitive.
Sweeney Recognized With Britt Award
Press release: David W. Sweeney received this year’s James T. Britt Memorial Award in recognition of his work to advance the cause of relief and recovery for impaired lawyers and his pioneering contributions to the overall well-being of lawyers in Missouri. The Missouri Lawyers’ Assistance Program established this annual award to inspire lawyers and legal employers by the awardees’ examples.
· Sweeney works to expand awareness, reduce stigma, and ensure lawyers in need have access to confidential, compassionate help. Much of his work has been about building trust and encouraging colleagues to know that it’s ok to ask for help, he said.
Mark Your Calendar
The SEMO Workforce and Economic Development Forum is coming up this Saturday. Organized by Vinnie Clubb, it will feature…
· SEMO Workforce and Economic Development Panel with Sens. Jason Bean and Jamie Burger, Poplar Bluff City Manager Robert Knodell, and retired economic development strategist Ed Dust.
· Guest Speaker Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins.
· Guest Speaker MU Vice Chancellor for Extension and Engagement Chad Higgins.
$5K+ Contributions
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $7,500 from Missouri C PAC.
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri - $7,000 from MOCANNTRADE PAC.
Another Viceroy PAC - $30,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri (Effingham, IL).
The Rowdy PAC - $25,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
MIC PAC - $14,000 from ACE American Insurance Company (Philadelphia, PA).
Friends of PCFD - $10,000 from Olive Hill Amish Mennonite Church.
Protect Missouri Workers PAC - $25,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy (Alton, IL).
Lobbyist Registrations
Strategic Capitol Consulting added Stonehenge Capital.
Nexus Group added Waymo LLC.
Will Marrs added Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce, and Missouri Hospital Association.
Gunnar See added Nucor Steel.
Tricia Workman added Missouri Smallflows Organization.
Eric Duncan and Beth Gugino terminated their registration. They had represented Indivior. Boaz Dillon terminated his registration. He had represented Freedom Foundation.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Amy Gunn, Tony Messenger, and Patrick Hamacher.