MOScout Weekender: AI Comes to MO Campaigns - Job Approval Polling - Hallway on Blue Wave 2026 and more...

AI Comes to MO Campaigns

Rob Glessner at Outreach Studios has been producing political commercials every cycle. Now, they’re working to incorporate generative AI into political video production – “in ways that make sense.”

Here are two ads for Rep. David Casteel to give you a sense…

·       Over the top AI political ad: See it here.

·       Traditional ad with AI scenes: See it here.

This cycle will be the first one with AI videos, and it could get crazy.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Job Approvals

It’s been a while since I’ve done any polling because we’re not in campaign season, but I figured it would be good to get some baseline approval numbers.  Download the poll here.

Survey conducted November 5 through November 6, 2025. 542 likely General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. 

Q1: Is Missouri heading in the right direction or is it going off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 43%

Wrong track: 42%

Not sure: 15%

Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Approve: 53%

Disapprove: 43%

Not sure: 4%

Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mike Kehoe is doing as Governor?

Approve: 50%

Disapprove: 35%

Not sure: 15%

Q4: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Catherine Hanaway is doing as Attorney General of Missouri?

Approve: 31%

Disapprove: 25%

Not sure: 44%

Q5: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Fitzpatrick is doing as Auditor of Missouri?

Approve: 29%

Disapprove: 18%

Not sure: 53%

MOScout’s Hallway Index:

I asked lobbyists, “What are the chances of a "Dem wave" in the 2026 midterms?” 20 replies.  Same question as from a week ago.  Slight shift after Tuesday’s elections.  The combined “Very Likely/Somewhat Likely” increased from 40% to 60%

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 5%

2. Somewhat likely… 55%

3. Somewhat unlikely…   25%

4. Very unlikely…  15%

Sample of Comments

·       Nationally, this seems like a real possibility based on Ds talking about economy and prices at the supermarket not declining. Whether it translates to a wave in MO seems very unlikely. It could be the push in SD30 and a handful of house seats, but not gonna change the environment significantly.

·       In Missouri? Maybe. What does a 2026 Dem wave look like here? +1 in the Senate and +4 in the House...

·       Optimistic, but a lot can happen in the meantime

·       Some down ballot races in red states were very telling yesterday.

·       Nationally they are decent. Here at home, the wave’s ripples are unlikely to reach our shores.

·       Doubtful much of a wave in MO. BUT, if you look at Hawley's populist messaging, it's clear he sees a departure from MAGA.

·       If economy continues to slide and prices remain high, the Rs run the risk of a shellacking at least in Washington, with a few potential pickups in the House in purple districts; Senate side - Fogle and Ingle could be beneficiaries of any potential landslide.

·       In Missouri, I'm betting on Jesus' return first.

·       Purple wave. Look at Georgia and Virginia county by county. Blue increases were partly dissatisfied Republicans.

·       Nationally potentially to likely given the economic cycle. Missouri, a blue wave will only be seen in initiative petition/referendum results.

·       This so far has tracked very closely with 2022. No wave then and I do not expect one in 2026.

Who Won the Week?

Who Won the Week will return next week.

Gubby Appt

Governor Mike Kehoe made several appointments.

·       Zachary Armfield was appointed as a Circuit Judge in the 25th Judicial Circuit.

·       Stephanie Dooley and Melinda Robertson were appointed to the Missouri Ethics Commission.

·       Erwin "Erv" Switzer was reappointed to the Missouri Technology Corporation.

$5K+ Contributions

People Not Politicians - $10,000 from Frank Gruber (Santa Monica, CA).

People Not Politicians - $5,701 from Missouri Democratic State Committee – Federal Account.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $40,000 from Das Nobel (Frisco, TX).

American Dream PAC - $7,175 from Shelter Mutual Insurance Company.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, Sen. Angela Mosley, Ellie and Eric Harmon, and Steven Webb.

Sunday: Kathy Swan.