AI Comes to MO Campaigns
Rob Glessner at Outreach Studios has been producing political commercials every cycle. Now, they’re working to incorporate generative AI into political video production – “in ways that make sense.”
Here are two ads for Rep. David Casteel to give you a sense…
· Over the top AI political ad: See it here.
· Traditional ad with AI scenes: See it here.
This cycle will be the first one with AI videos, and it could get crazy.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Job Approvals
It’s been a while since I’ve done any polling because we’re not in campaign season, but I figured it would be good to get some baseline approval numbers. Download the poll here.
Survey conducted November 5 through November 6, 2025. 542 likely General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.
Q1: Is Missouri heading in the right direction or is it going off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 43%
Wrong track: 42%
Not sure: 15%
Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 43%
Not sure: 4%
Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mike Kehoe is doing as Governor?
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 35%
Not sure: 15%
Q4: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Catherine Hanaway is doing as Attorney General of Missouri?
Approve: 31%
Disapprove: 25%
Not sure: 44%
Q5: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Scott Fitzpatrick is doing as Auditor of Missouri?
Approve: 29%
Disapprove: 18%
Not sure: 53%
MOScout’s Hallway Index:
I asked lobbyists, “What are the chances of a "Dem wave" in the 2026 midterms?” 20 replies. Same question as from a week ago. Slight shift after Tuesday’s elections. The combined “Very Likely/Somewhat Likely” increased from 40% to 60%
RESULTS
1. Very likely… 5%
2. Somewhat likely… 55%
3. Somewhat unlikely… 25%
4. Very unlikely… 15%
Sample of Comments
· Nationally, this seems like a real possibility based on Ds talking about economy and prices at the supermarket not declining. Whether it translates to a wave in MO seems very unlikely. It could be the push in SD30 and a handful of house seats, but not gonna change the environment significantly.
· In Missouri? Maybe. What does a 2026 Dem wave look like here? +1 in the Senate and +4 in the House...
· Optimistic, but a lot can happen in the meantime
· Some down ballot races in red states were very telling yesterday.
· Nationally they are decent. Here at home, the wave’s ripples are unlikely to reach our shores.
· Doubtful much of a wave in MO. BUT, if you look at Hawley's populist messaging, it's clear he sees a departure from MAGA.
· If economy continues to slide and prices remain high, the Rs run the risk of a shellacking at least in Washington, with a few potential pickups in the House in purple districts; Senate side - Fogle and Ingle could be beneficiaries of any potential landslide.
· In Missouri, I'm betting on Jesus' return first.
· Purple wave. Look at Georgia and Virginia county by county. Blue increases were partly dissatisfied Republicans.
· Nationally potentially to likely given the economic cycle. Missouri, a blue wave will only be seen in initiative petition/referendum results.
· This so far has tracked very closely with 2022. No wave then and I do not expect one in 2026.
Who Won the Week?
Who Won the Week will return next week.
Gubby Appt
Governor Mike Kehoe made several appointments.
· Zachary Armfield was appointed as a Circuit Judge in the 25th Judicial Circuit.
· Stephanie Dooley and Melinda Robertson were appointed to the Missouri Ethics Commission.
· Erwin "Erv" Switzer was reappointed to the Missouri Technology Corporation.
$5K+ Contributions
People Not Politicians - $10,000 from Frank Gruber (Santa Monica, CA).
People Not Politicians - $5,701 from Missouri Democratic State Committee – Federal Account.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $40,000 from Das Nobel (Frisco, TX).
American Dream PAC - $7,175 from Shelter Mutual Insurance Company.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, Sen. Angela Mosley, Ellie and Eric Harmon, and Steven Webb.
Sunday: Kathy Swan.