MOScout Daily Update: Flat Budget Years - Nicola on AI - Hough on Senate - Tergin for House and more…
Consensus Revenue Released
Press release: Governor Mike Kehoe, along with Senate Appropriations Chairman Rusty Black and House Budget Chairman Dirk Deaton, announced Missouri's Consensus Revenue Estimate (CRE) for Fiscal Year 2027 (FY2027)…
The key figure in the CRE is the projected general revenue collections. Net general revenue collections in FY2027 are expected to be $13.65 billion. This represents a 3.8 percent net general revenue growth over the estimated revenue for FY2026.
The revised estimate for FY2026, the current fiscal year, assumes a 2.1 percent decrease to $13.15 billion in net general revenue collections.
Kurt Erickson does a good job reporting what this means… “a tight budget outlook… the projection comes as Kehoe wants to begin eliminating the state’s income tax… Treasurer Vivek Malek [proposes] to double the amount of money the state spends on private school vouchers to $100 million, up from the current $50 million… There are other financial challenges ahead, including a projected decrease in federal aid as part of President [Donald] Trump’s tax cut plan that is being paid for by changes in the Medicaid and food stamp programs. In addition, a new break on capital gains taxes approved by the legislature last year will reduce revenues.
I’ll just step back and put these numbers in context (these are billions btw)…
FY 2027: $13.65E
FY 2026: $13.15E
FY 2025: $13.43
FY 2024: $13.43
FY 2023: $13.23
FY 2022: $12.88
We are essentially flat for four years while inflation has been galloping along (these numbers are not adjusted for inflation). The inflation rate in 2022 was 8%. In 2023 it was 4%.
Bailey Promotion Coming?
Yesterday Dan Bongino resigned from his position as co-Deputy Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Missouri pols assume that means Andrew Bailey will assume the role entirely. We’ll see…
Ehlmann Starts Raising $$$
One MOScouter reports that “St. Charles County Executive Steve Ehlmann’s fundraiser pulled down $170K in pledges. The room at Bogey Hills Country Club was packed with about 100 supporters, including prominent St. Charles County players Randy Schilling, Tom Dempsey, Chuck Gross, Jerry Scheideggar, Kevin Cantwell, and even Bill Eigel’s former treasurer, Tom Hughes.”
· Ehlmann got repeated applause with a skillful rally speech blending support for President Donald Trump and opposition to DEI, along with support for funding transportation and recounting his history of working across the aisle to get practical things done.
Senators Speak
· Sen. Joe Nicola opines about AI and says that despite President Donald Trump’s executive order, Missouri must act. “Executive orders are not legislation and cannot preempt state law absent specific congressional authorization… Preempting state authority at this critical moment risks leaving citizens exposed and communities unprotected. States must be able to act when technology outpaces federal law. Missouri will not shrug off that responsibility.”
· Sen. Lincoln Hough interviewed by the mighty Jason Rosenbaum criticizes the turn the Senate has taken: “A lot of the changes that have happened in the Senate, I think, are detrimental to what the institution is supposed to be… When you start just ending debate and saying, ‘I'm done even talking about it,’ I think you've got a problem. I think it's a breakdown in democracy… I don't think that's what the Senate's supposed to be.”
Time for Nutrition
The Department of Commerce and Insurance proposes a rule requiring one hour of continuing education for physicians to be dedicated to the benefits of nutrition.
Power Moves
· Missouri Independent reports that “Josh Moore is the new director of MO HealthNet Division.” Moore was previously MO HealthNet’s pharmacy director.
· Former St. Louis County Executive Charles Dooley has taken the reins at the NAACP’s St. Louis County chapter. Its former president, John Bowman, stepped down to pursue his Senate 14 bid.
· Ben Terrell, on LinkedIn, announced that “starting January 1st, I will be moving to a new position within the Department of Health and Senior Services! I’ve accepted a new position as the Deputy Division Director of the Division of Community and Public Health.”
New Committees
Carrie Tergin, former mayor of Jefferson City, formed Carrie Tergin for Missouri, to run for House 59. The current incumbent, Rudy Veit, is running for Senate 6. Two other Republicans, Jacob Munson and Victor Rackers, have active committees. So it looks like a hot primary.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $16,000 from Charter Communications.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $22,175 from Missouri Gaming PAC.
Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Hahn Deboef PAC.
Forward PAC (pro-Fogle) - $10,000 from Missouri Gaming PAC.
Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Riley) - $7,500 from XCaliber International Ltd 4747 NE 1st ST Pryor OK)
Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC - $15,000 from Ameren Missouri Company.
21st Century St. Louis PAC - $20,000 from Jerald Kent.
Paladin PAC - $12,400 from J&J Ventures Missouri, LLC 1400 Ramey Ave Effingham, IL).
Stewart for City Council - $15,000 from Brice Stewart.
Lobbyist Registrations
David Barlage added Specklebelly, LLC.
Brian Bernskoetter added Missouri Housing Authorities Property & Casualty Inc, and MPR of MO.
Kellie Duhr added Sazerac Company, Inc.
Ryan Hart added CHC Strategies.
Ron Hicks added Kind remedies, Premier Management Inc, and EDMcaptial LLC.
Ashley Lawson added Miriam School and Learning Center.
Pierre Lamont Yancy added ThinkTank Consulting LLC.
Happy Birthday
Happy birthdays to Mike Grote, Merri Berry, Derrick Good, Kevin Elmer and Dennis Fowler.
MOScout Schedule
No MOScout this weekend.