MOScout Daily Update: GOP Consensus on Pro-Life Plan - VLT Ads - MOBev Kills Anti-Soda Bill - Alexander in Senate 28 and more…
HJR 73 Emerges As Pro-Life Vehicle
Floor Leader Alex Riley says that he expects HJR 73 to come to the House floor this week.
HJR 73 would put the abortion question back before Missouri voters in 2026, repealing Amendment 3 and enshrining specific exemptions to any future abortion ban. There’s no reason to think that the debate and subsequent vote will be any different than the previous pro-lfie vehicle, HJR 54.
Why It Matters
This is basically the House blinking and agreeing to the Senate’s desire for an outright repeal of Amendment 3. That’s important because there was a chance that we’d see the sort of inter-chamber fighting which prevented IP reform from happening in previous sessions.
But there’s now a consensus among the Republicans that HJR 73 is the best path forward, dashing Democratic hopes that Republican squabbles could derail the pro-life effort.
· This sets up the potential for a Senate PQ – presumably in the later part of the final week of session.
Soda Wars
Over the past couple weeks a couple of new lobbyists jumped in to register for MO Beverage Association, the trade association for Missouri’s non-alcoholic beverage producers. MOBev is represented by Gamble & Schlemeier, but they beefed up their team with additions including David Barklage and Liz Henderson.
Their work apparently paid off last week as Rep. Jamie Gragg’s HB 1222 died in committee.
The bill would have banned sodas from being purchased with “food stamps”: The director of the department of social services shall request a waiver from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to exclude candy and soft drinks from the definition of eligible foods under 7 CFR 271.2. If such waiver is granted, then the director shall prohibit the purchase of candy and soft drinks with benefits provided through the supplemental nutrition assistance program.
Arguing in favor of the proposal were folks like Missouri Baptists Convention’s Timothy Faber: We all want to help our neighbors who are in need. But if we are honest, nobody “needs” candies and soft drinks... If families are ever going to break the cycle of poverty and be free from the government dole – which is the objective, right? – then making sure they have what they need is legitimate, but providing for their wants does not further that objective. In fact, leaving folks short of their wants is more likely to stir ambition and motivation for them to go out and procure the means of providing those wants.
But MO Beverage Association, along with the Missouri Grocers Association (MGA), carried the day and the House Committee on Government Efficiency rejected the bill 7-11.
· There is an identical Senate bill (Sen. Rick Brattin’s SB 662) which has been referred to committee. But I would assume that’s dead given that the House has no “appetite” for the legislation.
VLT Ads = Not Giving Up
The consensus in the building is that the House’s VLT bill will be difficult to pass through the Senate.
· The House barely passed the bill, garnering 83 votes, one more than the constitutional threshold for passage.
· The Senate filibuster rules means even if the votes were there, the odds of it getting to a vote are very long.
Still, there are five weeks left. Plenty of time to negotiate and come to a new compromise. And, the pro-VLT legalization forces continue to advertise on social media. They’re not giving up yet…
Alexander To Form Committee
Look for Sam Alexander to form a committee to run for Senate 28. That’s where Sen. Sandy Crawford is term-limited and Rep. Brad Pollitt is prepping a run.
Alexander, a doctor, ran for Congress in 2022, placing 5th in a crowded 8-way race that was won by Eric Burlison.
What It Means
Senate 28 joins the roster of Republican Senate primaries where Freedom Caucus forces will attempt to bolster their ranks in 2026.
Bain from Hawley to Smith
Matt Bain writes on social media: After 6.5 years of service to Senator Josh Hawley’s US Senate Office… I feel called for a change. Yesterday, I ended my tenure as a government employee as his deputy state director and senior advisor for agriculture and rural policy and am embarking on an exciting new journey as the Executive Director of Jason Smith for Congress, while being fortunate enough to shift to an advisory role to Josh’s political arm.
· At the end of the day- my mission will be the same as it ever was, always has been and always will be - to fight for the voices of southeast Missourians … I’ll just be doing it in a new way on Monday.
Lennon on Election Proposal
Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon writes in an op/ed in Kansas City Star that the federal election law proposal is a bad idea it’s “the definition of red tape.” Read it here.
Every driver knows what it feels like to take time off work, find parking and carry an armful of documents into the DMV, only to be told that they can’t renew their plates without providing one more piece of paper. Most of us probably also know what it’s like to be bounced around government offices just to fill out a single form because there’s no simple way for separate county offices to access one another’s records. Why in the world then would we want people to have that experience when they register to vote…
Playing the Lotto
Wall Street Journal reports on math wizards with deep pockets gaming state lottery systems. It focuses on Texas, but Missouri gets a mention…
A group of Princeton University graduates, incorporated under the name Black Swan Capital, has won millions in recent years playing scratch-off tickets and other lottery games in various states. Lottery officials and others who have tracked their tactics say they appear to calculate when the math is most in their favor, using publicly available information such as how many prizes are in a game and how many remain unclaimed. When the odds are right, they swoop in, hoping to win back more money than they spend.
One Black Swan team member collected a $5 million win in Missouri in 2019…
More on Columbia Race
One MOScouter analyzes the Columbia mayor’s race to confirm that the city “is exactly as liberal as it was three years ago.”
There was a 2nd progressive candidate in the last race — David Seamon. A black progressive who split the progressive vote…not by enough for Minchew to win obviously, but comparing an effectively heads up race with Murph to a three-way race with two left leaning candidates is not an accurate comparison.
Murph got 10,600 votes in 2025; Minchew got 7,700 in 2022.
Buffaloe got 14,000 votes in 2025; Buffaloe got 8,500 votes and Seamon got 3,000 votes in 2022 (11,500 total).
The left leaning candidate vote share went up by about 2,500 votes from 2022 to 2025. The right leaning candidate vote share went up by about 3,000 votes. Murph ran the exact same race as Minchew, albeit with more money and slightly more grassroots support. Columbia is exactly as liberal as it was three years ago.
Lobbyist Registrations
Guy Black and Merit Iles added FreedomRoads, LLC.
Elizabth Lauber added NCIC Correctional Services.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Mark Boyko, Leonard Hughes, and Brad Robinson.