MOScout Daily Update: Deaton’s Dish - Stadium on the Socials - Contres to Schmitt - More on Martin - House Grades and more…

Deaton’s Dish

“If you want to pass something expensive, make it more expensive.”  That formula, one lobbyist quipped, is the key to passing the stadium subsidies.

And recent history is full of examples to prove his point... 

·       The capital gains cut added several new breaks to gain Democratic support.  

·       The education bill expanding choice a few sessions ago plowed millions into the traditional schools.

·       And, of course, it’s true in Washington DC, where the “one big, beautiful bill” is about 1,100 pages and growing as they search for Yes votes.

That formula seems to make it almost certain that the expansion of the stadium subsidy bill will morph into something more like an omnibus economic development bill with items from House Bill 19 sprinkled in.

And that will be the ultimate reversal of House Budget Chair Dirk Deaton’s stated cause to spike HB 19 – to save money for the bottom-line.

Meanwhile

The danger for the governor is that the grass-roots gets activated over the issue.  Rep. Darin Chapell was an original No, so this doesn’t move the needle.  But if other reps starts putting this out on social media, it could get ugly FAST.  Comments running 25-1 against….

Session Grades: Part II (House)

Jon Patterson: B+.  It is difficult to understand how the most moderate member of a 110-person caucus became its leader and got through his first session as speaker with scarcely any controversy or apparent ideological fissures. Probably the best explanation is that JP consistently subsumes his own policy desires to those of his Caucus. Smart, self-deprecating, humble, and willing (even eager) to share credit, JP navigate a caucus with which he is often ideologically out of step.  Unfortunately next session won’t be so easy.  As he nears term limits, he’ll be a target for bomb-throwers on the right, or perhaps even a more assertive Leader Riley.

Ashley Aune: B-.  Perhaps the toughest job: to lead a divided superminority with no real power to enforce discipline.  She survived the coup attempt, and finessed a good working relationship with Patterson.  But didn’t pull the trigger when she had the chance to really cash in.  The GOP NEEDED Dem votes on the stadium bill.  That was the moment to gather Dems into a solid No bloc and then negotiate for some goodies.  A missed opportunity.

Brad Christ: B+.  Shows a knack for being in the biggest policy fights. Passed his crime legislation before spring break. His emerging issues committee was the hottest spot for major negotiations. Then, found himself carrying the stadium subsidy bill in the final week.

Bishop Davidson: C-.  This was his session to work every angle and become the obvious choice to become Budget Chair after Deaton.  But he failed to seal the deal, and now multiple folks think it’s possible he won’t get the promoted from Vice-Chair to Chair when Riley becomes speaker. 

Dirk Deaton: C.  Beaten up, as usual, by the Senate in conference, Deaton decided to drop the bomb by failing to bring up House Bill 19. Seemingly effective until the House turned around to throw hundreds of millions at a stadium.  Someone should get Deaton a tee that says, “I screwed over the Senate and all I got was this stupid t-shirt.”

Dane Diehl: A.   He’s a natural in the building.  Becoming a go-to guy to jump-start a tough bill out of the House, or handle a bill senators who needs the right touch in the House.

Marty Joe Murray: A-. Quietly making friends, adding items to the budget…

Matthew Overcast: B+.  Two bills out of the House as a freshman is a pretty strong start.

Melanie Stinnett: B-.  Well liked in the building for taking on complicated issues and not shrinking from controversy. But her gambit in addressing the abortion issue seemed to backfire as conservatives abandoned her proposal.   Did she offend her moderate voters for offering the resolution, while also failing to win the conservative ones? 

Chris Warwick: A. There’s an inherent value being mentioned in the group of future leaders, but not being the front runner. Well liked, knowledgeable, and grounded in agriculture and tax, Chris has all the makings of a successful member.

Schmitt Names Now COS

Press release: U.S. Senator Eric Schmitt announced that Casey Contres will take over as Chief of Staff following the departure of current Chief of Staff, Jimmy Peacock, who will be joining the private sector.

Contres recently served as the Political Director of the American Opportunity Alliance, and before that, served as campaign manager to both Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Senator Cory Gardner in Colorado. Casey spent time in both the House and the Senate, serving as Chief of Staff to Congressman Tony Gonzales, Press Secretary to Senator Cory Gardner, and Communications Director to Congressman Bill Shuster.

More Martin

NYTimes…  In recent days, Ed Martin, the self-described “captain” of the Justice Department’s “weaponization” group, made a candid if unsurprising admission: He plans to use his authority to expose and discredit those he believes to be guilty, even if he cannot find sufficient evidence to prosecute them — weaponizing an institution he has been hired to de-weaponize, in the view of critics.  “If they can be charged, we’ll charge them,” Mr. Martin told reporters before stepping down as interim U.S. attorney in Washington. “But if they can’t be charged, we will name them. And we will name them, and in a culture that respects shame, they should be people that are ashamed.”

·       That is not the way things have worked. The cardinal rule of prosecutors is to speak only through evidence and court filings. The department is supposed to abide by the dictum of charging crimes, not people. Naming and shaming is antithetical to its mission of pursuing justice impartially. And Mr. Martin’s statement appears to violate the department’s ethical and procedural rule book, which mandates “fair, evenhanded” investigations to safeguard “the privacy and reputation interests of uncharged” investigative targets.

Lobbyist Registrations

Jay Reichard deleted Expedia Group.

Mandy Hagseth deleted Missouri Family Health Council.

$5K+ Contributions

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Pipefitters Local 533.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Sen. Travis Fitzwater.

MOScout Schedule

I’ll be off for the Memorable Day weekend  Saturday – Monday.