MOScout Weekender: Stadium Subsidy Poll - Hallway on Special Session - IP Battleground - Kansas Wins the Week and more…
1 Big Thing: IP Battleground
Respect Missouri Voters filed eight new initiative petitions this week. They are all variations on constitutional amendments to protect the IP process and make it more difficult for the legislature to change laws enacted via initiative petition. See one of the filings here.
See Respect Missouri Voters’ website here.
The initiative petition process continues to be at the center of Missouri politics…
· This session, the voter-approved pro-choice amendment and sick leave law which dominated the most contentious fights.
· Curtailing the ability of liberal groups to use the IP process is a key goal for many Republicans.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Stadium Subsidies
Survey conducted May 28 through May 29, 2025. 653 likely General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full report here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 31%
Not sure: 17%
Q2: The state legislature is considering offering incentives to Missouri’s MLB and NFL teams, the Chiefs, Royals and Cardinals; in order to retain the teams in Missouri. The proposal would allow the teams to keep the taxes they generate to fund stadium projects. Do you support offering incentives to retain Missouri’s professional sports teams?
Yes: 56%
No: 22%
Not sure: 22%
Q3: If the incentives were passed, the cost could run over a billion dollars. Considering this, do you support offering incentives?
Yes: 38%
No: 33%
Not sure: 29%
Q4: The state of Kansas is offering incentives in hopes to lure the teams away. There is a good chance that if Missouri doesn’t match Kansas, the teams will leave the state, and Missouri will lose tens of millions in tax revenue every year. Considering this, do you support offering incentives?
Yes: 57%
No: 22%
Not sure: 21%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Special Session Prognosis
I asked lobbyists, “Special session prognosis...” 24 replies.
RESULTS
1. Easy-peasy. What's all the fuss about?.. 8.3%
2. Messy, but the basics eventually get done… 66.7%
3. Disaster. Expensive, unproductive, and embarrassing… 16.7%
4. Make your own prognosis… 8.3%
Sample of Comments
· Think it gets done, but this is a broad broad call. See it being messy and maybe with long-term consequences.
· It's hard to imagine the Gov's team called this Session without doing their homework to make sure they can get the votes, therefore I think it gets done.
· In the end, we just can't lose to Kansas.
· Not too optimistic since PQ was only 2 weeks ago
· Kehoe is a master politician so I have no doubt that he can pull this off but he had the element of surprise last go around that he doesn’t have this time.
· If it gets done it will be because he struck a deal to make this whole package of spending much more larger in the end.
· Best leadership teams and Gov combo maybe ever. They’ll figure out a way.
· This is a poorly planned activity.
· I think the question is whether Kehoe and legislators avoid a primary while the messy process of making this “beautiful bill” bigger to get it done. As County Exec, Eigel gets a free shot. Feels like Barklage needs to start the oppo campaign now to knock off that Kehoe threat.
· If someone didn’t already fix Mike Moon’s constituent sales tax problem…now might be a good time to go ahead and do that.
· Nothing is ever easy. The Governor must get legislators to look at the stadium concept and understand that the money on the table offered for the teams is money that is already leaving with the teams and going to Kansas unless the bill passes. If that perspective wins out, there is a path. The temptation to buy the giveaway sound bite will be real.
· So many variables….
Who Won the Week?
Kansas.
It was a tough week for Missouri’s efforts to rally a counteroffer to Kansas’ incentives to lure the new stadiums westward. Of course, most big legislative lifts are a zig-zag, and next week the environment could brighten. But this week showed resistance forming in nearly every corner…
· Freedom Caucus – announced they’d vote NO without a broad-based tax cut added.
· Senate Dems – still smarting from the session-ending PQs, suffered a violation of the Senate Rules, exacerbating their anger.
· Senate GOP Leadership – called Minority Leader Doug Beck’s sine die motion a “sneak attack” risking a “constitutional crisis,” deepening the unlikelihood they will work well together.
· St. Louisans – question the state’s priorities: $25 million for tornado relief and $1 billion for stadiums?!
· Fiscal hawks – quietly wary of the increasing price-tag associated with the special session package.
· Rural GOPers – privately worry that they will keep being asked to take “bad votes” on the stadium subsidy without any clear assurance it will keep the teams in Missouri.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Ethan Todd and Joan Barry.
Sunday: Rosetta Okohson, Miles Ross, Randy Pietzman, and Steve Lynch.