MOScout Daily Update: Eyeballing the Senate Vote - Atkins to FanDuel - Task Force’s Tough Job Gets Tougher - Malek’s ex-China Fund and more…

Eyeballing Senate Votes

The Senate will begin debate on the special session legislation today.

My eyeballing of the Senate roster has the stadium subsidy short on votes without substantial changes.  My “certain Yes,” “likely Yes,” “reluctant Yes” count only totals 14.  My “likely No” column, meanwhile, consists of Democrats (9), Freedom Caucus (4), Freedom Adjacent (4), and Fiscal Hawks (3).

Yesterday, as the special session bills were heard in committee, there was surprising (to me) resistance from Sens. Jason Bean and Maggie Nurrenbern about the size of the storm aid.  I have them both in the Yes total on these bills.  In other words, even among the Yeses there is some heartburn.

Presumably there will be a floor substitute which will – having heard concerns from the committee – increase the amount of aid. 

Kehoe retains a lot of goodwill in the Senate.  Folks want him to succeed.  So it’s possible to drag another 4 senators from “likely No” to “reluctant Yes,” through a combination of dangling appointment possibilities, future budget earmarks, arm-twisting and “I really need ya”s .

The tactic of peeling off senators one-by-one seems like a really messy method to cobble together 18 votes.  But it actually looks easier than capitulating to either the Freedom bloc or the Dems, because those deals might trigger an all-out filibuster from the other side.

Here’s my best guess (only a guess, I did not ask any senator how they would vote) on where people were yesterday…

Certain Yes / Likely Yes: Mike Bernskoetter, Rusty Black, Mike Cierpiot, Sandy Crawford, Kurtis Gregory, Mike Henderson, Lincoln Hough, Tony Luetkemeyer, Maggie Nurrenbern, and Cindy O'Laughlin.

Reluctant Yes / Possible No: Jason Bean, Justin Brown, Jamie Burger, and David Gregory.

Likely No…

9 – Dems – Doug Beck, Patty Lewis, Karla May, Tracy McCreery, Angela Mosley, Steven Roberts, Barbara Washington, Stephen Webber, and Brian Williams.

4 – Freedom Caucus – Rick Brattin, Brad Hudson, Adam Schnelting, and Nick Schroer.

4 – Freedom Adjacent – Ben Brown, Jill Carter, Mike Moon, and Joe Nicola.

3 – Fiscal Hawks - Mary Elizabeth Coleman, Travis Fitzwater, and Curtis Trent.

Freedomers Deride Stadium Subsidies Online

·       Bill Eigel has put an anti-stadium petition up on his website.  He’s running for St. Charles County Executive, but can’t stay away from a hot populist issue.

·       Jim Avery, yesterday, soon after declaring his candidacy for Senate 22, posted a critique of state policies on Facebook ending with this line: we don’t need leaders who try to give away tax money to billionaires who want to build new sports stadiums. (Among his primary rivals: Rep. David Casteel voted against the stadium amendment; Rep. Renee Reuter voted for it.)

·       Jim Lembke (remember him?) on Facebook: We need warriors to stand against the special interest and kill the stadium bill.

Praise for Millburg

One lobbyist texted me praising Casey Millburg, Mayor Cara Spencer’s Policy Director, appearance yesterday testifying for the tornado relief…  She just did a fantastic job. Not combative, sincere, grateful but still pushed and asked for more money (as she should have) commanded the facts, outlined the scenario, outlined the need, got honestly emotional.

·       Millburg, a holdover in the Spencer administration from the Jones Administration, previously spent time in the building as Dems’ General Counsel and Budget Director.

eMailbag: Recipe for Kehoe Primary?

Talking about how this special will impact a 2028 Gov primary is like predicting the Aug 2028 election day weather forecast.

Atkins to FanDuel

Jay Atkins, who has been serving as Chief of Staff for Attorney General Andrew Bailey since 2022 has left his position to work in the private sector.

·       Atkins will be joining the national practice for FanDuel.

Formula Task Force Face Tough Task

MOIndy reports on the first meeting of the governor’s task force looking at rewriting the foundation formula.  Read it here.

The big news: they were instructed to keep the overall funding levels where they are.  The easiest solution when rearranging a big funding system is an infusion of new money to keep everyone whole while recalibrating the dispersal.  No new money means the rewrite will have financial winners and losers.  That makes the job much, much harder.

And

One MOScouter fumes: No St. Louis County non-charter public school members to help figure out the foundation formula?  The deck has definitely been stacked in a way that will undermine traditional public schools… The most populated area of our state is underrepresented, and the intention and results we can expect are clear…

Vanguard’s New ex-China Fund

Reuters reports that “Vanguard's new exchange-traded fund targeting emerging markets outside of China appears to have followed a push from the Missouri State Treasurer's office for products excluding Chinese stocks.”

·       Vivek Malek, Missouri's Treasurer, told Reuters the announcement came six weeks after a series of requests and meetings with Vanguard, a claim backed by letters and e-mails reviewed by Reuters.

·       Malek successfully pushed for the state's pension fund to divest from publicly traded Chinese stocks in December 2023 and also pressed for a China-free fund option for the state's $4.5 billion 529 educational savings plan in an April 14 letter to the plan's program manager working with Vanguard.

·       "I believe we moved the needle in the direction that helped them reach this decision," Malek said.

Dems Eye House 10

With Rep. Bill Falkner term-limited, House 10 will be on the Dems’ map as a possible flip in 2026. 

·       KQ2 reports that one Dem is already prepping a campaign.  St. Joseph School District Board of Education President LaTonya Williams is throwing her name in the hat to represent District 10.

Rileys Infanticipating

House Floor Leader Alex Riley announces that he and his wife Ellen are expecting… We have lots of snakes and snails and puppy dog tails around here, so a little more sugar and spice to even things out will be nice! We're so excited to be adding another little girl to our family and she is due this fall!

$5K+ Contributions

A Better Missouri Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.

Lobbyist Registrations

Jay Reichard and Maddie McMillan Green added Natera, and Vehicle Management Solutions.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Lori Hughes and Ryan Johnson.