MOScout Weekender: White House Pressure for 7-1 Map - The Math Case for 5-3 - Hallway on 7-1 - WWTW and more…
7-1 Pressure Building
Rudi Keller has a humdinger of a story… Rep. Chad Perkins getting a call from the White House after they read his quote poo-pooing the idea of a quickie redistricting to carve up Congressman Emanual Cleaver’s district.
The White House political staff who made the call, Perkins said, told him they would be calling every GOP member of the Missouri House delegation as well as Gov. Mike Kehoe to push the project forward.
And… The Freedom Caucus issued a call for a special session to do the Cleaver carve-up, and also passing initiative petition reform. See the press release here.
The current Congressional map that was passed was a weak compromise – inconsistent with the political will of Missouri voters. It’s time this super-majority Republican party in Missouri grows a spine and actually delivers the Congressional map that reflects the strong conservative values of this great state, as the political makeup of this state clearly demands.
ROMO (Reminder of the Obvious)
Yes, Missouri is a red state now, but it’s not a 90-10 state. It’s a 60-40 state. If it was about accurately reflecting voters’ preferences, there’d be 3 Democratic districts.
2024 MO vote
Donald J. Trump, JD Vance Republican 58.5%
Kamala D. Harris, Tim Walz Democratic 40.1%
Remington/MOScout Poll
No poll this week.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: 7-1?
I asked lobbyists, “Will Republicans pass a ‘7-1’ map the next time Missouri goes through redistricting?” 18 replies…
RESULTS
1. Very likely… 16.6%
2. Likely… 27.8%
3. Unlikely… 38.9%
4. Very unlikely… 16.6%
Sample of Comments
· Not a chance.
· They can do it, but it will take a PQ and cost them a LOT of other priorities....and another wasted session incoming.
· It’s too big a target in a congress with as tight of margins as they have.
· Terrible idea
· Senate Democrats will not let that happen. Oh wait. Yeah, Cindy will lead another PQ and roll them.
· If Quinton Lucas is in the mix, there are enough people on both sides of the aisle that wouldn’t mind seeing him not be in Congress.
· Not sure — but the idea alone is kind of triggering (maybe in a good way?). Last time around, the redistricting fight actually stalled a lot of harmful legislation. It turned into an unexpected firewall for Democrats.
· Missouri is now so reliant on the Federal Government for money that if Rs tell Trump no it would be much worse for the state than any damage passing a 7-1 map would do to the Senate.
Who Won the Week?
Steve Butz – News that Peter Merideth is officially out of the Senate 4 race gives Butz’ geographic footprint a mild bump.
Lobbyists – A potential “quickie redistricting” will throw next session into chaos. Chaos is always everywhere good for the pros. (And honestly not terrible for the folks writing about it either…)
Andrew Bailey and Josh Hawley – I’m skeptical that the Grain Belt loan getting pulled will derail the project, but these two can take credit for righting for rural Missouri.
Tokers – A little relief from the Missouri Supreme Court after getting taxes by everybody and their brother.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Kehoe announced four new appointments…
· Edward C. Clausen was appointed to the Conservation Commission.
· Belinda Farrington was appointed to the Lincoln University Board of Curators.
· Mark McCarter was reappointed to the Child Abuse and Neglect Review Board.
· Lyle Rosburg was appointed to the Missouri Health Facilities Review Board.
$5K+ Contributions
Northland Strong PAC - $30,000 from R&B, LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Mike McMillan, and Donna Lichtenegger.
Sunday: BJ Tanksley, Shanon Hawk, Jack Gamble, Jim Avery, Lacy Clay, and Crystal Brinkley.