MOScout Daily Update: Redistricting Talk - Hudson Exits Freedom Caucus - Gun Fight - Rowden Registers and more…

Redistricting Talk Gets Hot

There’s been a swift change in atmosphere around doing a quickie redistricting to add a Republican congressman to Missouri DC delegation.  It’s best epitomized by these texts from a key player in the building.

·       His response when I checked in on Thursday about doing redistricting: “Hell no”

·       His text Saturday: “The winds are changing.”

The pressure from the White House is clearly moving people.  Congressman Bob Onder told a crowd over the weekend that President Donald Trump had called Governor Mike Kehoe.

Two big points to keep in mind…

First, the advances in information technology mean that the redistricting process is relatively easy now.  That process, redrawing maps, was still cumbersome in the early 2000s.  It was easier in the 2010s. And by 2020s software was widely available allowing anyone to make their own maps.  The current talk is to run the redistricting special at Veto Session.  That’s six weeks away.  That would have been unthinkable even in the 2010 cycle.  But it’s clearly doable – from a technical standpoint.  A veto session special lets the law come into effect (90 days after passage) before filing opens in February – and therefore doesn’t require a difficult emergency clause vote.

Second, the human challenges remain.  Drawing a 7-1 map is not merely about carving up the Cleaver seat.  You have to add Dems to other Republican districts.  You’re going to be aiming for 7 60-40 GOP districts, and that means the 70% Republican districts need Democrats.  And there’ll be fighting over how you do that.  Some options (maybe most options, or all options) will be unpopular with individual congressmen.

For example, Congressman Jason Smith’s 8th District will have to come grab some Dems from Congresswoman Ann Wagner’s district, or go farther west and take some of Greene County’s Dems.   It might be that Sam Graves, Eric Burlison, and Mark Alford will all dip into KC.

One observer who’s started gaming this out says that “the most changed district in many of these scenarios is Burlison.”

·       And… if you’re creating a 7th Republican congressman, there’s going to be jockeying, elbowing and general mayhem among state senators (and state representatives, and political consultants) about who’s in the new red district – who has the best chance for a ticket to DC.

This human element will be the tricky part of making the September deadline.

Hudson Exits Freedom Caucus

Sen. Brad Hudson has left the Freedom Caucus.  That reduces their membership in the Senate to a mere three members: Sens. Rick Brattin, Adam Schnelting and Nick Schroer.

I’m told that Hudson left on his own, under amicable terms. Tactically Hudson was sometimes “out of alignment” with the caucus, so apparently, he figured he’d let the Freedomers do their thing.

The expectations is Hudson will join what some call the “Freedom-adjacent” group that often work with the Freedom Caucus on specific conservative issues while retaining their independence.

·       Other senators in that situation: Sens. Jill Carter, Mike Moon, and Joe Nicola.

Gun Fight

We’re getting into the weeds of a subculture here, but there’s a little tiff going on among 2A supporters.  Guns & Gadgets put up a video banging on the Dorr Brothers. Aaron Door runs Missouri Firearm Coalition.

From the video: They'll sell a hardline no compromise message blasting even the most pro2A lawmakers if they don't toe the Dorrs’ extreme line.  And that outrage, it drives donations. It plays on people's emotions, but it brings money right into the pockets of the Dorrs… According to IRS filings and many investigative reports, the Dorrs have used their nonprofits to rake in donations from well-meaning patriots like you or I. But then those nonprofits send massive amounts of money to a for-profit business that they own called Midwest Freedom Enterprises.

And according to reports, between 2015 and 2020, nonprofits controlled by the Dorrs sent over $1.1 million to Midwest Freedom Enterprises. And that's not all. Another $300,000 was spent on management services and consulting fees.

·       The Dorr brothers then released their own diss track… See that video here.

Senate 22: Casteel PAC Starts Oppo on Avery

In the latest July reports it looks like Rep. David Casteel’s team is already taking aim at Jim Avery.

Casteel PAC reported a 4,250 expenditure for opposition research on Avery.  It appears the firm doing the oppo, judging from the address, is David Barklage’s company.

What It Means

Casteel and Avery have each put substantial sums into their campaign already.  It would seem these two are front-runners in the race to succeed Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman – and they know it.

It could get ugly…

Rowden Registers

Former Senate Pro Tem Caleb Rowden registered to lobby in Missouri.  This isn’t a surprise as he was hired by former Speaker Steven Tilley’s firm, Strategic Capitol Consulting, earlier this year.

Smith on Reversing Gambling Change

Congressman Jason Smith, House Ways and Means Chair, says that they’re looking at undoing the gambling tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill.  Read NBC’s report here.

The new law cuts the tax deduction on “wagering losses” from 100% to 90% of losses starting in 2026… For instance, a bettor who wins $100,000 and loses $100,000 in the same year would be stuck with a taxable income of $10,000.

“It would be potentially catastrophic for the industry as it would disproportionately affect high volume gamblers,” said Jack Andrews, a professional sports bettor… “Those high volume players are the lifeblood of most casinos,” he added. “If they realize they could lose, and still have taxable income to pay that they didn’t make, they’ll stop playing. Or find ways to play that don’t generate a paper trail.”

Lee’s Tariff Fee

I’m a Post-Dispatch subscriber and haven’t seen any notice of this hitting folks in St. Louis, but Axios reports that other papers in the Lee Enterprises family are tacking on a “tariff fee” to subscribers…

eMailbag

197 members of the general assembly never mentioned redistricting part II, and now that Trump mentions it, the Freedom Caucus wants to spend taxpayer $$ on a special session to ensure the “efficiency” we have seen from congress over the last 7 months can continue? 

Lobbyist Registrations

Dan Houx added ShoMe Strategies, LLC.

Caleb Rowden added clients of Strategic Capitol Consulting: CarShield, Citizens Memorial Health Care Foundation, City of Arnold, County of Jefferson, FWD.US Inc, G.J. Grewe Brokerage & Development, Good Day Farms, Great American Outdoors Group, Koch Industries Inc., Missouri Energy Development Association, Missouri Insurance Coalition, Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Osage Nation, Phoenix Home Care, Police Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 15, Rimco, Inc, St. Louis County Police Association, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company Inc, The Opportunity Trust,  Torch Electronics LLC, Warrenton Oil Co.

$5K+ Contributions

Paladin PAC - $48,000 from J&J Ventures Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).

The Rowdy PAC - $48,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Dale Ludwig.