MOScout Daily Update: Take A Look at ‘Not The Map’ - Lots of Redistricting Talk - FC Hits House High - Page Investigation and more…
This Is Not The Map
This is not the map. Just to be clear, I made that the headline. I made a round of calls yesterday to try to uncover the proposed map 7-1. I did not see the map. I did not talk to anyone who has seen the map. This is not the map. I’m told “the map” is being pushed by the White House and they’re working with the Republican National Committee. This is a rough outline based on conversations. Do not look at where every little line is. This is a big picture sketch of the general contours in the current thinking.
The changes of the quickie redisticting map (see the current map here, BTW) follow logically from one big fact: the last redistricting needed to accommodate Blaine Luetkemeyer’s mid-MO residence. But CD-3 is now represented by Bob Onder from St. Charles.
· That allows CD-3 district to become more compact, more western. It’s more of a St. Charles district.
· I’m told the new map will give Onder all of St. Charles and Warren County along with Lincoln County from the current CD-6.
That pushes CD-2 to the south.
· Ann Wagner would pick up Crawford and Washington County.
Meanwhile, CD-1 (Wesley Bell), CD-7 (Eric Burlison), and CD-8 (Jason Smith) would all generally stay the same.
The other key to the map would be splitting up Kansas City. CD-6 (Sam Graves) would grab the rest of Clay County, and some of Jackson County; The new CD-5 would start with (part of) Jackson County, and head west taking Lafayette, Saline, Howard, and the north part of Boone. That gives CD-4 (Mark Alford) the last part of Jackson County as well as some of the current western counties of CD-3 like Moniteau and Miller.
More Redistricting Scoop…
· In this version of the future, the new CD-5 doesn’t have an obvious front-runner. Sen. Kurtis Gregory would be in it. As would, Speaker Jon Patterson. But it’s hard to imagine we wouldn’t have a crowded field for the prize of a congressional seat.
· One consultant says that they think Alford (besides Emanuel Cleaver of course) has the most transformed district and therefore the most to gripe about. But he’ll be a “team player.” And assuming Republicans do manage to hold the majority, he could get rewarded accordingly with a good committee assignment.
· I’m told that White House staff secretary Will Scharf is among those in the White House working on this. He’s contacted at least one state senator about the need for redistricting.
· Why Governor Mike Kehoe is on board despite the fact its ruinous for the next session and bad for the institution of the Senate: being anti-Trump is the only way he becomes vulnerable for re-election. If he finds himself on the wrong side of President Donald Trump’s tweets, it would embolden a challenge from Bill Eigel or someone else.
· The current assumption is that we’ll see a relatively fast roll-out with a special session around Veto Session. The Republican Congressional delegation will ign off on it and give their state legislators marching orders. The Senate will go first, PQ it, and send it to the House.
· The only way Senate Dems might forestall a PQ is to find a clutch of Republican senators who would stand with them. I don’t see it happening. You’d need folks who are term limited, not thrilled with the unseemly quickie redistricting, and have a beef with how their area is treated. Folks who meet two or three of those conditions: Sens. Mike Bernskoetter, Mike Cierpiot, and Lincoln Hough.
Redistricting’s Legal Challenge
Yesterday I wrote about the Missouri State Constitution’s Article III, Section 3 as the possible basis for a legal challenge, but a couple readers pointed me to Article III, Section 45 as the more likely source…
When the number of representatives to which the state is entitled in the House of the Congress of the United States under the census of 1950 and each census thereafter is certified to the governor, the general assembly shall by law divide the state into districts corresponding with the number of representatives to which it is entitled, which districts shall be composed of contiguous territory as compact and as nearly equal in population as may be.
The
· Democrat-leaning lobbyist: We only get to redistrict when Congress determines the number of representatives we get. This is typically done after the census. If Trump really wanted to do this on a large scale, he would have had Congress re-determine the distribution of seats.
· Republican staffer: Congressional redistricting is Art III, Sect 45 and RSMo Chapter 128, which basically says legislature must redistrict after a census, but doesn't say they can't redistrict more than once. Whether mid-decade redistricting is a good idea is debatable, but it doesn't appear illegal.
More on Freedom Caucus
While the Senate Freedom Caucus has shrunk to a mere two members, I’m told it’s reached “an all-time high” on the House side. It’s now up to 11 members there with 3-4 potentially joining in the future.
· As I wrote yesterday, the FC makes more sense in the House where members being part of a bloc helps them assert their voice.
Page Under Investigation
Drama unfolding in St. Louis County where the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the “Missouri Attorney General is investigating St. Louis County Executive Sam Page’s use of public money on an April ballot proposition, an attorney hired by Page confirmed Tuesday.
or against campaign issues, but Page has said the outreach was only informational.”
· Missouri Highway Patrol troopers visited Page’s office Monday morning with an order allowing them to take Page’s cellphone, according to a letter from Councilwoman Shalonda Webb to Page dated Monday.
Tax Assessors Balk At Revaluations
Missourinet reports that “tax assessors in several Missouri counties are resisting a directive from the Missouri State Tax Commission to raise property tax valuations.”
· The Commission recently issued memorandums of understanding (MOUs) to 88 counties, requiring them to ensure property values fall within 90% to 110% of market value, as mandated by state law.
· However, 14 county assessors have not signed the MOUs, signaling their disagreement with the Commission’s approach… Steve Hobbs with the Missouri Association of Counties said a task force has been formed and is working with lawmakers to restore what he calls “common sense” to the process.
· As of press time, this is a list of counties where assessors had not signed the Memorandum of Understanding… Andrew, Audrain, Carter, Cooper, Iron, Jackson, Lawrence, Newton, Pike, Platte, Polk, Putnam, Reynolds, and Taney.
Hoskins Thanks Trump For OBBB
Secretary of State Denny Hoskins is among several secretaries of state featured in a White House video touting the Big Beautiful Bill.
Condolences
To Sen. Mike Moon on the passing of his son.
From Facebook: For the past 10 years, my oldest son, Bryan, lived on his boat in VA. On July 3, 2025, Denise and I received notification from the Coast Guard that his boat was engulfed in flames. Early reports stated that no one was on-board. Later, however, when the boat was secured, a body was found. Due to the fire, positive identification was expected to take longer than normal. Following the unsuccessful efforts to identify by medical and dental records, Denise and I submitted DNA samples.
Before making a public announcement, we waited for a positive identification. Today, we learned that Bryan was aboard his boat.
We plan to honor Bryan with two Memorials: one in VA (where I lived until I married Denise and where Bryan lived for the past 10 years) and one in MO (where Bryan was born and lived for 25 years).
The MO memorial will begin at 10:00 am, August 30, 2025, High Street Baptist Church, 900 N. Eastgate, Springfield, MO 65801.
If you are able to attend, we would enjoy seeing you.
Lobbyist Registrations
Doug Stone added 1125 Grand Boulevard LLC, and 1111 Grand LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
Kingdom Leadership PAC (pro-Fitzwater) - $15,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government PAC.
964 PAC (pro-Myers) - $10,000 from Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government PAC.
21st Century St. Louis PAC - $7,372 from STL Regional Chamber PAC.
Nexus PAC - $20,000 from Nexus Group.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jennifer Carter Dochler, and Bruce Darrough.