MOScout Daily Update: AG Shake-Up - OG Hanaway - SOS Suit - Trump Threats - Murray Bills and more…
Bailey to FBI, Kehoe to Appt Hanaway AG?
And just like that BOOM, we’re shuffling the statewide deck. Andrew Bailey resigned yesterday. He’ll be co-deputy director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Bailey’s decision left some MOScouters scratching their heads…
· I do not think it is a good move or makes a lot of sense. Life expectancy in the Trump Administration isn’t long. As AG he would have been the front runner for Governor in 2032.
· He gave it all up to be the assistant to the assistant regional manager?
Why This Caught Everyone By Surprise…
One reader shakes his head: “Bailey raised well over $100K at an event in Springfield… last Thursday night.”
· I have talked to donors who have put big events together and then had their candidate drop out or pivot. It burns them up.
Next Up
Almost immediately, Governor Mike Kehoe announced a press conference for today (10AM) to name Bailey’s replacement.
The quick response by Kehoe helps him avoid being waylaid by everybody and their brother lobbying for the job.
The expectation is that former Speaker Catherine Hanaway will nab the appointment. “Hanaway is a lock,” one observer promised. She’ll be the first woman to serve as Missouri Attorney General.
The big question pols were asking yesterday: will Hanaway view the appointment as a simple public service stint or as the start of a new act in politics? That is, will she whip the office into shape, and then return to private practice, stepping aside for a 2028 Republican free-for-all primary? Or will she immediately start plotting a 2028 election path with an eye on the governor’s race in 2032?
Most folks think it’s the latter.
But they also point out that Hanaway is decidedly “old school” at this point. One consultant: Hanaway is a capable attorney and former U.S. Attorney with leadership experience, but she hasn’t held elected office or been active in frontline politics for some time. She’s previously lost two statewide races, and the Republican Party has changed significantly since then. To my knowledge, she hasn’t expressed support for President Trump or played a visible role in helping Republican candidates in recent cycles…
Other chatter…
· If it becomes clear that Hanaway isn’t re-upping for a full term in 2028, look for Sen. Nick Schroer, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, to be near the front of the line to run for AG in 2028.
· Andrew Bailey will be back! One Bailey-ite says he can “100% confirm” Bailey intends to run for governor after Kehoe.
Toder Sue Hoskins
Spencer Toder, who filed the “Missouri Right to Education Initiative” initiative petition earlier this year, is suing Secretary of State Denny Hoskins over the proposed summary language.
Inexplicably, the Secretary of State drafted a summary that falsely and prejudicially informs voters that the proposed amendment would “[p]otentially eliminate existing state scholarship programs that provide direct aid to students with disabilities and low-income families” and “[p]revent the State from supporting educational choices other than free public schools.” The proposed amendment does not contain the Secretary’s quoted words. Nor does it have these probable consequences.
Murray Behind on Bills
Post-Dispatch reports that “records from the city collector’s office also show Rep. Marty Joe Murray, a Democrat, has not paid his 2024 personal property tax bill worth more than $776, but a lawsuit filed earlier this month seeking payment has been dismissed.”
· Murray, who was elected to represent the 78th House District last November, faces a separate lawsuit in St. Louis circuit court filed by the Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District for an unpaid bill from a former address on Iowa Avenue. Court records show the district alleges he owes $1,052.
Trump Threats
This is Indiana, but the same pressure could come to Missouri Republicans…
NYTimes on Martin
New York Times reports on Ed Martin. He’s acting about how you’d expect…
Days after Mr. Martin, a Trump-aligned activist, was tapped by the Justice Department to investigate the New York attorney general, Letitia James, he wrote a letter to her lawyer saying he would take it as an act of “good faith” if she were to resign.
Mr. Martin followed up this breach of prosecutorial protocol by showing up outside Ms. James’s Brooklyn home, clad in a trench coat and posing for pictures for The New York Post. While he told an inquiring neighbor that he was “just looking at houses, interesting houses,” Mr. Martin later appeared on Fox News saying that, as a prosecutor, he wanted to see the property with his own eyes.
Each of Mr. Martin’s actions violates Justice Department rules and norms: Prosecutors are barred from making investigative decisions based on politics; they are asked not to comment on specific cases; and they are supposed to avoid turning their investigations into public spectacles.
· The request that Ms. James resign is particularly unusual because it appears the Justice Department is trying to harness its criminal powers to accomplish one of Mr. Trump’s political goals.
Eigel PAC Sends $$$ to Eigel Candidate Committee
In the large contributions, the BILL PAC sent $100,000 to the Eigel for Missouri committee. What’s going on here: Eigel’s candidate committee has been amended to seek the St. Charles County Executive position. Unlike the state-level offices, there’s no contribution limit for this race. So Eigel’s PAC – and others – can make large contributions to it.
Millburg Promoted
Playing catch up on this one… last week St. Louis Mayor Cara Spencer shuffled her staff, promoting Casey Millburg to chief of staff. At the same time, she shrunk the chief of staff’s portfolio.
Under the new structure, the chief of staff, chief operating officer, chief recovery officer and the chief economic development officer will all handle distinctive responsibilities and answer directly to the mayor. Chief Operating Officer Ben Jonsson will oversee City departments and operations. Chief of Staff Casey Millburg will lead policy and strategy and manage office staff. The chief economic development officer, who has yet to be appointed, will take charge of economic transformation. The St. Louis Development Corporation is conducting a search for this position on the City’s behalf. Chief Recovery and Neighborhood Transformation Officer Julian Nicks will lead the tornado recovery effort.
What It Means
· One Jeff City denizen cheered the move: this is a home run move by the Mayor. Casey has earned the respect of both Jeff City Republicans and STL City politicians, along with having deep relationships with Democrat caucuses and the lobbying class. The Governor’s Office takes her views seriously as well.
· But I worry the new structure could play to Spencer’s inclination to micromanage. We’ll see…
Lobbyist Registrations
David Sweeney deleted Twain Financial Partners.
$5K+ Contributions
Protect Missouri Workers PAC - $25,000 from Simmons Hanly (Alton, IL).
Missouri Leadership PAC - $10,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from MADA Dealers Interested In Government.
Eigel for Missouri - $100,000 from Believe in Life and Liberty PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Donna Pfautsch, and Tim O’Connell.