MOScout Daily Update: Special Session Starts - Legal Challenges Mount - St. Charles Polling - August Revenues - MERS Merger and more…

Special Session Starts

The House opened special session yesterday with a gavel in-gavel out technical session, allowing Speaker Jon Patterson to form a new Special Committee on Redistricting, and read in and refer the legislation that the chamber will take up.

On the new redistricting committee: Rep. Richard West, Chair; Rep. Bill Hardwick, Vice Chair; Rep. Mark Sharp, Ranking Minority Member; Reps. Bennie Cook, Michael Davis, Melissa Douglas, Jamie Gragg, Tony Harbison, Don Mayhew, Scott Miller, Melissa Schmidt, Kem Smith, Kathy Steinhoff, Jeff Vernetti, Christopher Warwick, and Yolanda Young.

·       Rep. Dirk Deaton will carry the redistricting bill.  That committee will meet today at Noon.

·       Meanwhile, Rep. Ed Lewis is the sponsor of what appears to be the vehicle for the initiative petition changes.  That resolution – it would send the issue to Missouri voters for approval – will have its hearing today in the Elections Committee at 1PM.

I would expect both hearings will be long, with rooms full of Missourians voicing their objections.  The testimony will not change the trajectory of this special session.

But, what might: grumbling, especially among Republicans on the Senate side, about deficiencies in the map.  Concerns starting to waft up…

·       It is also curious the “Missouri First” map splits the military bases since there was such a concern of losing influence in DC if the bases were split.

·       A BIG fear: the map is depending on Trump voters to sustain its red districts.  Yes, those Trump voters may be there next year, but when he’s no longer on the ballot, will they melt back into the background?  This is how some see the 7-1 map becoming a 5-3 map.

·       One GOP consultant: If my math is right [CD-5] will become one of the swingiest Congressional districts in the entire country.  If it swings blue 2028 or 2030, Mid-MO could end up with a Democratic congressman from Kansas City representing it.

Legal Challengers Line Up

The legal challengers to the new redistricting plan are beginning to line up…

·       Yesterday, the NAACP filed suit saying that Governor Mike Kehoe can only call special session “on extraordinary occasions.” From the suit: Although the question of what an “extraordinary occasion” under the Missouri Constitution has not been tested in the Courts, no governor has ever before convened the legislature based on similar facts. Neither of the matters designated in the Proclamation reach the level of extraordinary occasion required by Article IV, Section 9.

·       The Missouri Independent reports that Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, whose district is being targeted for dispersal, plans to sue because “the map would rely on outdated population figures may violate the U.S. Constitution.”

·       Democrats, including SuperAttorney Chuck Hatfield, have previously floated a possible lawsuit that the Missouri constitution doesn’t allow mid-decade redistricting.

·       House Minority Leader Ashley Aune questioned whether the use of technical sessions would undermine the constitutionality of the special session: Article III, Section 20 of the Missouri Constitution requires that a “majority of the elected members of each house shall constitute a quorum to conduct business.” In the House, at least 82 members must be present for a quorum. However, only 21 members were in the chamber today… Although the House has used so-called “technical sessions” for years, such sessions aren’t authorized anywhere in the constitution or House Rules… “The House may have routinely conducted business in violation of constitutional mandates, but that doesn’t make it legal or right,” Aune said. “The stakes are too high in this special session to allow this illegal practice to continue unchallenged.”

More St. Charles County Executive Polling

The latest polling to make its way to my in-box was done by Survey St. Louis.  Small survey (335 respondents), conducted over two days a week apart.  See it here.  It shows what you’d expect.  Bill Eigel with highest name ID, and Jason Law relatively unknown. 

·       That’s a big vulnerability for Law – if Eigel defines him first.

I am going to read you a few names in politics today. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable option of each person. If you have never heard of the person, just press 3 and we will go on.

Jason Law.

If favorable, please press 1 – 6.2%

If unfavorable, please press 2 – 4.6%

If you have never heard of Jason Law, please press 3 – 89.2%

Mike Elam.

If favorable, please press 1 – 25.4%

If unfavorable, please press 2 – 7.9%

If you have never heard of Mike Elam, please press 3 – 66.7%

Bill Eigel.

If favorable, please press 1 – 58.7%

If unfavorable, please press 2 – 14.3%

If you have never heard of Bill Eigel, please press 3 – 27.0%

Nick Guccione.

If favorable, please press 1 – 19.4%

If unfavorable, please press 2 – 11.3%

If you have never heard of Nick Guccione, please press 3 – 69.4%

Donald Trump.

If favorable, please press 1 – 84.2%

If unfavorable, please press 2 – 14.0%

If you have never heard of Donald Trump, please press 3 – 1.8%

If the election for St Charles County Executive were held today, and the candidates are Jason Law, Mike Elam, Bill Eigel and Nick Guccione, for whom would you vote?

If Jason Law, please press 1 – 8.9%

If Mike Elam, please press 2 – 7.1%

If Bill Eigel, please press 3 – 39.3%

If Nick Guccione, please press 4 – 10.7%

If you are still undecided, please press 5 – 33.9%

August Revenue

It looks like August state revenues surged 9.5% in the month, compared to a year ago. However, I am weary of celebrating.  The data can be volatile, and a spike on the final day of the month powered this result.  The monthly total were flattish before that.

At the end of August, tax receipts were over 5% ahead of last year’s fiscal-year-to-date number. 

·       We’ll see if September can sustain this gain, or if it reverts to the previous no/low growth we had been experiencing.

MERS Merger

St. Louis Business Journal reports that “MERS Missouri Goodwill Industries, based in St. Louis' Downtown West neighborhood, is merging with Kansas City-based Goodwill of Western Missouri and Eastern Kansas. The combined organization will be called MERS Goodwill, which the St. Louis nonprofit already uses as an abbreviation of its name.”

MERS Missouri Goodwill Industries ranks No. 1 among St. Louis' largest nonprofits, based on its fiscal 2024 operating budget of $254.5 million, according to St. Louis Business Journal research…

The KC-based Goodwill organization ranked No. 36 on the Kansas City Business Journal’s list of that region's largest nonprofits, based on revenue of just over $62 million in its most recent fiscal year. It had 633 full- and part-time employees in 2024, according to a workforce report on its website.

·       In Jefferson City, MERS is represented by David Winton, Jessica Petrie, Matthew Thompson, and Paul Mouton.

Lobbyist Registrations

Steve Chu added SAS Institute Inc.

Derek Coats deleted City of West Plains.

$5K+ Contributions

417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $20,000 from Mark Monheiser.

Missouri Rural Investment PAC - $10,000 from Xcaliber International LTD LLC (Pryor, OK).

Missouri Patriot PAC - $10,000 from Xcaliber International LTD LLC (Pryor, OK).

MO Soybean Association State PAC (MO SoyPAC) - $7,500 from Mid-America Biofuels, LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Emily van Schenkhof, and Jane Cunningham.