MOScout Daily Update: Senate Primary January Quarters and What They Mean - Dems Stall Senate - Top 25 PAC $$$ and more…

Yesterday was the deadline for January campaign finance reports.  Here are the summaries from Senate primary races…

Republican Senate Races

Senate 2

Incumbent Sen. Nick Schroer raised $23,180; spent $5,961; and has $105,229  on-hand.

·       1776 PAC: $361,498 COH.

State of Play: No change here: Schroer looks safe.  One MOScouter sees the big PAC pile for a potential AG bid against Catherine Hanaway. 

Senate 6 (Mike Bernskoetter termed)

Rep. Rudy Veit raised $34,228; spent $16,806; and has $309,663 on-hand.

·       Central Missouri Leadership PAC filed Limited Activity

Derrick Spicer raised $24,530; spent $10,484; and has $178,681 on-hand.

·       Spicer for Senate PAC: $9,915 COH.

Chuck Gatschenberger filed Limited Activity.

Jake Vogel raised $46,161; spent $67,512; and has $115,903 on-hand.

·       Lead the Way PAC: $943 COH.

Outlook: Gatschenberger filed his second limited Activity report in a row.  Limited Activity means that he’s neither raised nor spent $500.  It looks like he won’t be an impact on this race.  The other three have similar COH totals (though Vogel needs to keep an eye on expenses), meaning the race may come down to message.

Senate 8 (Mike Cierpiot termed)

Speaker Jon Patterson raised $195,225; spent $380; and has $663,297 on-hand.

·       Missouri Alliance PAC: $ 2,103,165 COH

Dan Stacy hasn’t filed his report yet.  His October COH was 12,525.

State of Play: Incredibly, JP raised another $600K+.  He’s on-track to hit $3M COH before he starts earnestly deploying his money. 

Senate 10

Incumbent Sen. Travis Fitzwater raised $12,000; spent $17,828; and has $117,706 on-hand.

Kingdom Leadership PAC: $158,835  COH.

Chad Perkins raised $46,000; spent $0; and has $93,913 on-hand.

·       Pike Lincoln Values Fund: $108,087 COH

Doyle Justus raised $5,000; spent $2,913; and has $25,001 on-hand.

·       Justus for All PAC: $6,859 COH

State of Play: Fitzwater is safe, but if he exits – as some think he will – Perkins has the head start on raising money.  He raised $81K in his PAC, and $46K in candidate committee.

Senate 12

Incumbent Sen. Rusty Black raised $34,650; spent $6,883; and has $214,098 on-hand.

·       Great Northwest PAC: $229,209 COH.

Freddie Griffin raised $2,700; spent $28; and has $4,168 on-hand.

State of Play: Black looks safe.

Senate 16 (Justin Brown termed)

Rep. Bill Hardwick raised $39,401; spent $15,092; and has $ 209,401 on-hand.

·       Missouri Enterprise Fund: $124,379 COH.

Rep. Don Mayhew hasn’t filed his report yet.  His last filing (July 2025) showed $38,846 on-hand.

Joe Steelman raised $1,500; spent $3,850; and has $59,413 on-hand.

·       Steel Resolve PAC: $44,317 COH.

Hannah Kelly raised $14,685; spent $3,520; and has $74,469 on-hand.

·       Accountability PAC: $5,244 COH.

·       Esther PAC: $6,491 COH.

State of Play: I’ve taken Jeff Knight off my list because folks seems to believe he’s not serious about running.  Meanwhile, Steelmen is said to be reconsidering the race as well as he prioritized his family at this time.  Those changes reshape this race into a three-way primary with Hardwick holding the clear money advantage.

Senate 18 (Cindy O’Laughlin termed)

Rep. Greg Sharpe raised $43,105; spent $24,835; and has $47,085 on-hand.

Sarah Graff raised $41,175; spent $1,914; and has $106,022 on-hand.

·       Rural Missouri Values PAC: $26,458 COH

Dusty Blue raised $17,700; spent $7,555; and has $109,937 on-hand.

State of Play: Graff has the money lead now (along with the backing of incumbent O’Laughlin), but it’s still a wide open race.

Senate 20

Incumbent Sen. Curtis Trent raised $85,122; spent $26,452; and has $274,657 on-hand.

·       417 PAC: $500,944 COH.

Lori Rook raised $6,650; spent $7,873; and has $115,730 on-hand.

State of Play: It’s hard to beat an incumbent.  But it’s especially hard when they take you seriously from the start.  And Trent is taking this challenge seriously.  He raised $180K in his PAC, $85K in his candidate committee and he’s carrying several pieces of Kehoe’s agenda.

Senate 22 (Mary Elizabeth Coleman not running)

Rep. Renee Reuter hasn’t filed her report yet.  Her October report showed $5,043 on-hand.

Jim Avery raised $30,019; spent $16,230; and has $ 344,765 on-hand.

·       Make JeffCo Great Again PAC: $21,300 COH.

State of Play: Avery is the clear front-runner.

Senate 26

Incumbent Sen. Ben Brown raised $52,623; spent $4,876; and has $150,195 on-hand.

·       BB Freedom Fund: $142,181 COH.

State of Play: Brown is safe.

Senate 28 (Sandy Crawford termed)

Rep. Brad Pollitt raised $33,354; spent $6,423; and has $152,298 on-hand.

·       Rocker P Brand: $108,662 COH.

Sam Alexander raised $15,452; spent $15,083; and has $189,308 on-hand.

State of Play: This is still a toss-up.

Senate 30 (Lincoln Hough termed)

Rep. Melanie Stinnett raised $266,218; spent $8,786; and has $407,190 on-hand.

·       Heart of SGF PAC: $144,967 COH.

State of Play: With no activity from previously mentioned possible primary opponent Brian Gelner, it looks like Stinnett can focus on her Dem challenger, Rep. Betsy Fogle.

Senate 32

Incumbent Sen. Jill Carter raised $33,700; spent $12,208; and has $52,918 on-hand.

·       Show Me Values PAC: $73,905 COH.

Rep. Dirk Deaton raised $52,550; spent $8,404; and has $211,368 on-hand.

·       Old McDonald PAC: $209,042.

State of Play: Although Deaton is raising good money, I don’t think he runs. We’ll see.

Senate 34 (Tony Luetkemeyer termed)

Nathan Willett raised $ 60,450; spent $4,034; and has $ 208,521 on-hand.

·       NextGen North PAC: $195,491 COH.

Rep. Sean Pouche raised $5,650; spent $15,000; and has $21,475 on-hand.

State of Play: Willett’s big money advantage makes him the clear favorite here.

Democratic Senate Races

Senate 4 (Karla May termed)

Rep. Steve Butz raised $57,420; spent $17,744 and has $202,599 cash on-hand.

·       Butz STL PAC: $129,340 COH.

Gina Mitten raised $28,009; spent $14,106; and has $89,205 on-hand.

·       Good Hands PAC: $500

Chris Clark raised $24,358; spent $6,763; and has $60,401 on-hand.

State of Play: I’m dropping Bosley from the race due to her seeming disinterest.  The three-way gives Mitten a gender advantage, but Butz is working hard and retains the money lead.

Senate 14 (Brian Williams termed)

Rep. Raychel Proudie raised $6,779; spent $956; and has $42,824 on-hand.

·       PROUD PAC: $7,881 COH (October, had filed January report yet).

Joe Palm raised $4,780; spent $2,702; and has $9,171 on-hand.

Shaunte Duncan raised $3,791; spent $2,641; and has $13,513 on-hand.

John Bowman raised $23,592; spent $35,810; and has $23,359 on-hand.

·       Come Back PAC: $6,255 COH.

Rep. Doug Clemens raised $7,370; spent $492; and has $26,540 on-hand.

·       Flower Fund PAC: $2,000 COH

State of Play: Bowman remains the best fundraiser in this group, but it’s still too early to name a front-runner in this 5-way race.

Senate 24

Sen. Tracy McCreery raised $72,434; spent $16,535; and has $387,134 on-hand.

·       Serve Missouri: $238,863 COH.

State of Play: McCreery keeps working despite no opponent on the horizon.

Dems Stall Appts

Senate Dems held the floor yesterday stalling gubernatorial appointments. Early days in session aren’t particularly valuable as there’s no big demand for floor time, but it’s an early indication of the underlying tension in the chamber carrying over from last year.

We’ll see how this plays out over the next five months…

TOP 25 PACs COH

Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS PAC - $2.5 million.

Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $2.1 million.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $1.6 million.

People Not Politicians - $1.4 million.

Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC – $1.4 million.

Luetkemeyer For Missouri – $1.3 million.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $1.3 million.

RightPath PAC - $872,498.

Tony PAC (pro-Luetkemeyer) - $864,845.

Pipefitters Assoc Local #533 - $801,331.

Missouri Leadership PAC - $795,503.

MISSOURI REALTORS PAC, INC - $721,129.

Stop the Ban - $688,256.

Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $687,083.

Patterson For Missouri - $663,297.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $657,475.

International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101 PAC - $605,126.

Truth in Campaigns (pro-Rizzo) - $596,477.

BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $571,854.

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $561,202.

Enterprise Holdings, Inc. / Enterprise Mobility PAC - $552,350.

Midwest Region Laborers' Political League Education Fund - $543,211.

Lucas For KC - $530,951.

Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC (pro-Hanaway) - $516,126.

Missouri NEA PAC - $506,859.

$5K+ Contributions

Will of the People - $30,000 from PROMO Fund.

Lincoln PAC - $15,000 from Torch Electronics LLC.

The 1821 PAC - $25,000 from Elevance Health, Inc. (Cincinnati, OH).

Sander For Missouri - $5,001 from Christopher Sander.

Missouri Right to Education - $10,800 from MHS TRUST DTD 1/13/86.

Lobbyist Registrations

Claudia Alley added Board of Education for the School District of Springfield R-12; and deleted Practical POCUS.

Erin Allen added Missouri American Water.

Trent Watson added Zoll Services, LLC.

Leigh Anne Haun added Feeding Missouri.

Thomas Robbins, and Caleb Rowden added Citizens for Smart Growth in St. Charles County.

Gamble & Schlemeier deleted Sportradar Solutions LLC, Haleon c/o Multistate Associates LLC, Lou Fusz Athletic, and St. Charles County Convention & Sports Facilities Authority.

Ashley Lawson deleted Missouri Eagle Forum.

Richard McIntosh deleted Stride, Inc.

Happy Birthday

Happy birthdays to Mary Still, and Don Gosen.

Saturday: Governor Mike Kehoe, Sen. Jill Carter.

Sunday: Shawn Rhoads, Robert Knodell, and Carl Bearden.

Monday: Michael Butler, Scott Faughn, and Michele Kratky.

MOScout Schedule

No Weekender edition coming up.  I’ll be off for the long MLK Day weekend.