MOScout Daily Update: Realtors Look for Assurances - iGaming to MO? - VLT Polling - Diehl Sentencing and more…

Welcome to Week 3 of the legislative session…

Realtors Skeptical on HJR 165

Speaker Jon Patterson’s HJR 165 is the vehicle to advance Governor Mike Kehoe’s income tax phase-out plan. 

The resolution would ask voters if “the Missouri Constitution be amended to allow the reduction and elimination of state individual income tax and to authorize the expansion of the sales and use tax base for the purpose of reducing and eliminating the state individual income tax?”

Kehoe, in his State of the State speech, vowed that real estate, health care, and agriculture would be exempt from any expansion of the sales tax.  But the Realtors will point out that a few words in a speech is no guarantee. Even if you take Kehoe at his word, who’s to say whether future governors or legislatures will honor that pledge?

·       Bottomline: Without a constitutional protection, the Realtors will oppose this resolution – in the building, and at the ballot.

Meanwhile

Missouri Promise (see their website here) released their second ad backing Kehoe’s plan.  See the ad here.  You know those politicians who make big promises and then never deliver? That's not how Mike Kehoe rolls…

·       It then uses clips from his State of the State speech… I'm tired of being in the middle of the pack. It's time to compete. It's time to win.

SBA’s Next Game?

Since last November, the Sports Betting Alliance has contributed over $400,000 to Missouri politicians…

11/04/2025 - American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $100,000.

11/04/2025 - Missouri Enterprise Fund (Pro-Hardwick) - $10,000.

11/05/2025 - Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $10,000.

12/02/2025 - STLCO PAC (pro-Brian Williams) - $15,000.

12/02/2025 - Real Action PAC (pro-Christ) - $15,000.

12/02/2025 - Show Me Liberty PAC (pro-Davidson) - $10,000.

12/09/2025 - Pike Lincoln Values Fund (pro-Perkins) - $15,000.

12/09/2025 - 417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $15,000.

12/11/2025 - Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Riley) - $30,000.

12/13/2025 - Old McDonald PAC (pro-Deaton) - $10,000.  

12/31/2025 - Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $50,000.

01/07/2026 - Tony PAC (pro-Luetkemeyer) - $15,000.

01/07/2026 - Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC (pro-Hanaway) - $25,000.    

01/07/2026 - NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $15,000.

01/07/2026 - Rural Roots PAC (pro-Diehl) - $10,000.

01/07/2026 - The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $15,000.

01/09/2026 - Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-Patterson) - $50,000.

I found this outpouring of dollars curious since sports betting is legally enshrined in the Missouri constitution.  One possible reason for the continued outreach to Missouri politicians can be found on the Sports Betting Alliance website where they tout “iGaming.”  iGaming includes sports betting, but also online casino games.

Online casino gaming (or iGaming) is already happening across the U.S., but the vast majority of users are betting on unregulated, offshore platforms that provide no verified protections for consumers and dodge billions in potential gaming taxes that would go to the states. Just like with legalized sports betting, states can create a regulated marketplace for iGaming – one that offers regulator-tested products and verified consumer protections – and combat these unregulated, offshore platforms.

·       Sports Betting Alliance lobbyists in Jefferson City: Jay Reichard, Gunnar See, and Noel Torpey.

Senate 8: Stacy Quarter

Former Rep. Dan Stacy filed his January quarterly report on Friday.  It showed that he raised $1,420; spent $7,353; and has $6,592 cash on-hand.  It’s hard to see how he can compete with Speaker Jon Patterson’s $2M+ war chest.  Patterson can probably turn his attention to the general election where he will face Rep. Keri Ingle.

·       Senate 8 is a purple district with a tad more red than blue.  But, with it being a midterm and Trump in the White House, Republicans are bracing for a potentially tough year.

House Primary Quarters

A few other quarters of House incumbents being primaried…

In House 83 where Rep. Ray Reed faces David Dimmitt, Reed showed a very strong quarter.

·       Reed raised $88,743; spent $7,500; and has $117,205 on-hand.

·       Dimmitt raised $18,501; spent $295; and has $18,205 on-hand.

In House 139, Rep. Bob Titus faces a challenge from Sandy Karnes, chairwoman of the 7th Congressional District Republican Party, who points to Titus not filing a single bill last year and says, “I’m not a ‘do nothing’ politician.”

·       Titus raised $6,761; spent $6,825; and has $31,304 on-hand.

·       Karnes raised $34,617; spent $878; and has $33,738 on-hand.

Poll: Regulate VLTs

A polling memo getting passed around says that most Missourians would like to ban the unregulated “gray machines” and replace them with “regulated and taxed” video lottery terminals.  See the memo here.

The Talk: Diehl Sentencing

Former Speaker John Diehl is scheduled to be sentenced this Friday for fraud related to COVID relief funds.  It has drawn some interest around the capitol because the typical playbook of prosecutors is to offer leniency in exchange for information of other misdeeds.

It’s impossible to know whether that’s at play.  But fueling the speculation…

·       One MOScouter pointed to the recent indictment of Joseph Campbell – with whom Diehl had previously been tied.

·       The  sentencing memo filed by his attorney contains a few large block redactions.

SBOE’s SLPS Decision

Over the weekend, I went back and listened to last week’s State Board of Education meeting when they voted to demote the St. Louis Public Schools to provisionally accredited.

Pamela Westbrooks-Hodge attempted to head off the move by preemptively addressing “the elephant in the room.”  She acknowledged the “serious challenges” faced by the district:  governance, leadership instability, repeated audit delays, transportation failures, and staff turnover.  But she insisted that the Board had better tools at their disposal than reclassification.  She said that a “more responsible course is to maintain SLPS current status and escalate… interventions under MSIP-6.”

Kerry Casey was unmoved by this argument and made the motion to change SLPS’ status. Brooks Miller Jr. seconded it.

Commissioner Karla Eslinger weighed in on the proposal.  I wonder if she’d opposed it, if the board would have deferred to her.  But she was neutral: “My position here is: Lower accreditation, don’t lower accreditation. The provisional tag on this school district is not going to make that big of a difference as far as what they’re doing next. They’re not going to lose any funding.  They already have charters in their district so there’s no expansion of charter. What does it actually do?..  I’d rather have them at the table with me and working with me… is a provisional classification going to stop that communication?  I don’t believe so. I hope not…”

Kennedy to BB&D

Press release: Evan Kennedy (né Rodriguez) has joined the firm as Counsel in its Jefferson City and Columbia offices, practicing appellate litigation, constitutional disputes, elections and campaign finance, regulatory and administrative law…

·       Evan previously served as General Counsel to former Missouri Governor Michael L. Parson… He also served as St. Louis City Circuit Attorney following the resignation of Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner.  Prior to joining the Governor’s Office, Evan served as a legislative analyst in the Missouri House of Representatives and as an assistant attorney general in the Missouri Attorney General’s Office.

A Funky Odor

The headline of this morning’s Post-Dispatch: A St. Louis suburb is requesting the state investigates a “strong, skunky smell… emanating from a large cannabis grower.”

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Kehoe announced several appointments.

·       Kathleen Hamilton was appointed to serve as a Judge for the Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District.

·       Emmett Bryson was appointed as the director of Missouri Division of Credit Unions.

·       William Harlow was appointed to the State Board of Embalmers and Funeral Directors.

·       Penny Kampeter was appointed to the Board of Nursing Home Administrators.

·       George Speckman was appointed to the Missouri Real Estate Appraisers Commission.

$5K+ Contributions

AshPac (pro-Aune) - $10,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.

KC Forward Progress - $15,000 from Thomas McDonnell.

Lobbyist Registrations

Rodney Boyd, Kate Casas, Brian Grace, and Kelvin Simmons added Global Kratom Coalition.

Alex Tuttle added Brightstar Global Solutions Corporation; and deleted IGT.

Kelvin Curtis added National Rifle Association of America.

Ryan Gill added Missouri Future, LLC.

Maria Goellner added Families Against Mandatory Minimums.

Jacob Karson added American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers.

Jeff Stack added Mid-Missouri Fellowship of Reconciliation.

Gunnar See deleted DraftKings Inc, and Practical POCUS.

Courtney Curtis deleted 100 Black Men of Metropolitan St. Louis.

Richard McIntosh and John Gaskin deleted The Butler Group, LLC.

Happy Birthday

Happy birthday to Annie Harper.