MOScout Weekender: Gatsch Out Of Senate 6 - Kehoe Approval Numbers - Hallway on VLTs - WWTW and more…

Gatsch Terminates Committee

Yesterday Chuck Gatschenberger terminated his campaign committee to run for Senate 6.  This comes soon after his filing of a Limited Activity report for his January quarter.

·       With the recent formation of a committee by former Rep. Lisa Thomas, the field is now: Derrick Spicer, Thomas, Rudy Veit, and Jake Vogel.

Cork Swarens Passes

C.C. “Cork” Swarens passed away on Thursday.

Swarens was a lobbyist for the Missouri State Medical Association from the mid-1970s through the 1990s.  He retired as their Executive Vice President in 2010. 

Cork was a great guy and told fantastic stories from when the Capitol seemed to have a more familial atmosphere. 

·       Visitation from 1-2:30PM on Wednesday, February 4 at Freeman Mortuary, followed by a celebration at Bones beginning at 3:30PM.

Remington/MOScout Poll:

Survey conducted by Remington Research Group, January 28-29, 2026. 713 likely 2026 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.7% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. See the full report here. (Numbers in parentheses are from January 2025 survey).

Q1: Is the state of Missouri heading in the right direction or is it going off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 36% (40%)

Wrong track: 38% (43%)

Not sure: 26% (17%)

Q2: What is your opinion of Mike Kehoe?

Favorable: 44% (42%)

Unfavorable: 37% (31%)

No opinion: 19% (27%)

Q3: What is your opinion of the Missouri Department of Transportation?

Favorable: 38% (47%)

Unfavorable: 20% (24%)

No opinion: 42% (29%)

Q4: What is your opinion of the Missouri Supreme Court?

Favorable: 30% (29%)

Unfavorable: 28% (32%)

No opinion: 42% (39%)

Q5: What is your opinion of your local school district?

Favorable: 53% (47%)

Unfavorable: 27% (33%)

No opinion: 20% (20%)

MOScout’s Hallway Index: VLT Odds

I asked lobbyists, “What are the chances a VLT bill makes it to the governor's desk this session?” 22 replies…

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 4.5%

2. Somewhat likely… 27.3%

3. Somewhat unlikely… 40.9%

4. Very unlikely… 27.3%

Sample of Comments

·       The House got 77 votes last year and the industry threw a parade. It is an election year so people will be more cautious. All of this and I have not mentioned the senate.

·       The need for more tax revenue gives this bill an advantage it hasn’t had in years.

·       Too much opposition

·       They don’t NEED money yet. Next year, with potential tax cuts, a new formula, and budget shortfalls, the need for revenue becomes very real.

·       Casinos get outplayed and outplayed, they have banked on a strategy that does not make any sense. I think VLT's are outworking Casinos on this one.

·       Budget cratering. Scrapping income tax. Use fees are the most politically palatable option for fresh revenue to replace dwindling revenues.

·       That much $$ in the political system could reshape the landscape

·       Still opposition from both parties in the Senate, including leadership. Hard to pass anything that way.

·       Do illegal industries really want to be regulated? No. Do the legal industries want the competition? No. Are all sides spending tons of money on campaign contributions and lobbyists? Yes. This is a solution to a problem nobody wants fixed.

Who Won the Week?

MoDOT – They handled the monster snowstorm as efficiently as could be imagined.  It’s a good thing too, considering they’ll face the House Budget Committee this week.

Jake Vogel – This week Vogel nabbed the Firefighters’ endorsement.  Senate 6 is still a tough race, but he wins the week.

Solar industry – It’s been a tough year, but they won the week with a Missouri Supreme Court decision ruling that says SB 820 (sponsored by then-state senator Eric Burlison) prevents HOAs from banning solar panel installations. 

Republican candidates – As other mega-donors have receded, a new one, Mike Rayner, is stepping forward.  This week he deposited $1.6 million into a PAC.

Find a downloadable version here.

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Kehoe made several new appointments…

·       Matt Gildehaus and Alan Hillier were appointed, and Nancy Gingrich was reappointed, to the Truman State University Board of Governors.

·       Seth Johnson was reappointed to the Missouri Real Estate Appraisers Commission.

·       Sarah Masterson was appointed as the Marion County Circuit Clerk, District II.

·       Matt Ross was reappointed to the Board of Cosmetology and Barber Examiners.

$5K+ Contributions

People Not Politicians - $150,000 from Think Big America (Chicago, IL).

Citizens For Safety - $9,995 from Central County Professional Firefighters.

Lake of the Ozarks Community Gaming - $250,000 from Signature GLP LLC.

Together KC - $25,000 from Civic Council.

Together KC - $25,000 from Burns & McDonnell Engineering Company Inc.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Zach Dunn, and Robin Wright-Jones.

Sunday: Ashley Lawson, and Rob Krosley.