MOScout Weekender: Senate 30 Poll - Hallway on Bailey Return - Who Won the Week and more…

MOScout/RemingtonPoll: Senate 30

Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout on October 7 and 8 with 517 likely 2026 General Election voters weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.1% with a 95% level of confidence. See the full results here.

Q1: The candidates for state senate are Republican Melanie Stinnett and Democrat Betsy Fogle.  If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

Melanie Stinnett: 45%

Betsy Fogle: 47%

Undecided: 8%

Q2: Constitutional Amendment 3 will be on the ballot this November.  From what you know about it, how do you think you will vote?

Vote in favor: 35%

Vote against: 46%

Undecided: 19%

Q3: Thinking about the job that President Donald Trump is doing, do you generally approve of the job he is doing? Or generally disapprove of the job he is doing?

Approve: 43%

Disapprove: 54%

Not sure: 3%

Q4: Generally speaking, would you say things in Missouri are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 28%

Wrong track: 50%

Not sure: 22%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Watching Bailey

I asked lobbyists, “Which incumbent should be most nervous about Andrew Bailey’s return to Missouri?” 23 replies…

RESULTS

1. Mike Kehoe… 17.4%

2. Dave Wasinger… 65.2%

3. Catherine Hanaway… 8.7%

4. Denny Hoskins… 4.3%

5. Vivek Malek… 0%

6. Eric Schmitt… 0%

7. No one has to worry… 4.3%

Sample of Comments

·       Everyone else on your list has all the same friends as Andrew Bailey. Wasinger does not.

·       All of them

·       Kehoe isn’t running again. Wasinger is running and Bailey will beat the absolute breaks off of him.

·       The LG is looking over his shoulder.

·       I would say Sen Bean as Bailey would likely squeeze him out of the LG race but then I reread your question and it says “nervous”. I suspect Bean would be “Thankful”.

·       I said no one needed to worry...but if Kehoe has another bang up year or two like he has...he should be worried in general.

·       Wasinger, but if Kehoe continues to stumble he should watch out.

·       Kehoe wants him to primary Wasinger.

·       [Hanaway] He’s done the job and she still has bad votes.

·       Wassinger seems poised to run for Gov. so Bailey seems like his nightmare.

·       The War Hero returns to a state government that has taken only losses since he left. Sometimes you can’t choose the election cycle, it can choose you. Until someone provides a compelling case for Kehoe except “we all know him,” he’s going to politically in peril.

·       Josh Hawley climbed ladders. Andrew Bailey dug a hole, took a dump in it, and is complaining about the smell…but he will get funded to take Wassinger out.

·       [Wasinger] He will have to spend a lot more of his own money.

Who Won the Week?

Andrew Bailey – He turned a resignation into a Missouri media tour, and has people asking about his future.

Betsy Fogle – She’s ahead in the latest MOScout/Remington poll.  And Melanie Stinnett spent the week demanding a retraction from Will of the People PAC.  As the old adage goes: if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

Tracey Steele – His House 12 race is currently ranked number #1 most likely to flip on the MOScout PowerRankings.

Latice Thomas - The Raytown alderwoman was acquitted on all eight malfeasance counts, surviving every vote 5 - 4 and ending a 15-month effort to drive her from office.

Find a downloadable version here.

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Kehoe announced six appointments…

·       Aaron Delbruegge, of Sullivan, was appointed to the Missouri Commission for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing.

·       Marsha Haefner, of St. Louis County, was reappointed to the St. Louis County Board of Election Commissioners.

·       Leah Harris, of St. Louis, was appointed to the Regional Convention and Visitors Commission.

·       Robert Land, of Dexter, was appointed to the State Technical College of Missouri Board of Regents.

·       Paul Lenhart, of Crestwood, was appointed to the State Rehabilitation Council.

·       Shannon Porter, of Crocker, was reappointed to the Missouri Statewide Independent Living Council.

$5K+ Contributions

Stop the Ban (anti-A3) - $2,645,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).

Stop the Ban - $600,000 from Planned Parenthood Great Rivers Action.

Stop the Ban - $25,000 from Planned Parenthood Great Rivers Action (Overland Park, KS).

Her Health, Her Future PAC (pro-A3)  - $900,000 from Her Health Her Future Missouri.

Her Health, Her Future PAC - $10,000 from Bootheel Values PAC.

Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $250,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).

Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $50,000 from Sheet Metal Workers International Association Local Union No. 36 General Fund.

Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $50,000 from SMART Political Education League (Washington, DC).

1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $50,000 from David Steward.

1776 PAC - $10,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri (Effingham, IL).

1776 PAC - $6,000 from Charter Communications.

Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $7,500 from MOCANNTRADE PAC.

Legio XIII PAC - $250,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL)

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $20,000 from Enterprise Holdings Inc. PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Burns & McDonnell Corporate Services Inc.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Spire Missouri Inc.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Brad PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Evergy Metro Inc.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Freedom and Liberty PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $7,500 from Missourians for Mike Cierpiot.

Friends of Bill Ellis - $8,755 from Bill Ellis.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Charles Hatfield.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $6,200 from Hoisington for MO.

Local 41 Political Action Fund - $15,563 from Missouri PAC Federal Committee.

MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Growth and Opportunity PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Secretary Denny Hoskins, Roger Wilson, Terry Jarrett, and Bruce Holt. 

Sunday: Rep. Jamie Ray Gragg, Deb Lavender, Jay Hardenbrook, and Jeanne Kirkton.