MOScout Forecast
My race-by-race predictions are up in the MOScout 2026 Watch.
· I have Dems +2 in the Senate and +7 in the House with flips in House 12, 16, 30, 94, 100, 105, and 133.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Bold Predictions
I asked lobbyists, “Open phone lines. Give me your bold predictions.”
Comments
· Democrats will fail to break the super majority.
· Fitz race is closer than it should be. If that occurs, A3 goes down, as do JP and Stinnett. A6 + new Senate means conservative coalition is now the Republican caucus. And Kehoe doesn’t run.
· Stinnett loses, Patterson and Christ win
· Ann Wagner loses CD-2
· The governor announces he is not running for re-election in the next 10 days. Chaos ensues.
· History vs Future - history says one thing, predictions say the opposite. If you have a coin, flip it and it will be as accurate as any of your responses. That qualifies as bold right?
· I do think the primary early voting % will translate to a similar behavior in the general and therefore present headwinds for R’s due to some believing D’s peaked a couple weeks ago. If that is true, part of the cake is baked.
· Taking all that into consideration, AI says it can predict with 100% certainty a week from today. I’ll let you know what it says, but don’t tell anyone.
· A3 passes narrowly; Bailey claims credit for “saving the day” even though Kehoe and his wife had expended effort on it from the jump; Bailey primaries Kehoe because if you’re gonna primary an incumbent, why not go for the job you really want?
An Early Night?
With hotly contested legislative races across the state, the expectation is for a later night on Tuesday. But I wonder if it might end up being relatively early. That’s because there seems to be a lot of early voting going on.
For example in House 101, 27.4% of registered voters have already voted. If we end up with 50% turnout like 2022, that means over half the votes will be in with absentee results. We could know quite early the direction of the night.
Fitz Blasts JackCo Assessment
Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick released a scathing audit of Jackson County’s 2023 property reassessment. See the audit here. Among the findings…
· More than 49,000 taxpayers weren’t notified of valuation increases by the statutory deadline.
· Although roughly 200,000 residential properties faced increases exceeding 15%, contractor Tyler Technologies conducted just 764 exterior inspections after taxpayers received notice.
What It Means
Releasing this four days before voters decide whether to reelect him, Fitz is reminding folks of his watchdog prowess.
24-Hour Expenditure Report
Missouri House Democrats Action Fund – October 30 report
House 12 - $5,000
House 96 - $5,000
House 105 - $5,000
House 16 - $2,500
House 17 - $2,500
House 30 - $2,500
House 100 - $2,500
House 110 - $1,500
STL Police Board Talk
Some civvies around St. Louis think we’ll see a resignation (or two) from the Police Board as members initially thought they were doing Governor Mike Kehoe a favor and getting a status position and now realize they really don’t want the scrutiny of public life.
· Names mentioned with the political savvy that the board currently lacks, and likely acceptable to Kehoe: Outgoing Rep. Steve Butz, PNC exec Leah Reynolds Harris, former Alderman Steven Roberts Sr., and Citi exec Catherine Smith-Morgan.
Who Won the Week?
We’ll find out who won the Week on Tuesday night…
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Kehoe made new appointments…
· Billy Crawford, of Marshfield, was appointed as the Webster County Northern Commissioner.
· Robert Clary, of Alton, was appointed as the Oregon County Coroner.
· Jaimie Umhoefer, of Mayview, was appointed as the Lafayette County Auditor.
· Thomas Salisbury, of Kansas City, was appointed to the Clay County Board of Election Commissioners.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Justice - $100,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc.
Voters for Integrity - $50,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc.
Citizens for a Better Government - $50,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc.
Her Health, Her Future PAC – $25,000 from Timothy Sansone.
People Not Politicians - $14,374 from DCCC (Washington, DC).
MO Protect PAC (anti-A6) - $5,500 from 1776 PAC.
Show Me Growth PAC - $20,000 from MOCANNTRADE PAC.
Show Me Growth PAC (pro-David Gregory) - $25,000 from Conservative Justice PAC.
816 PAC (pro-Jeff Martin) - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee – $10,000 from Missouri REALTORS PAC Inc.
MoCannTrade PAC - $15,000 from Good Day Farm Missouri, LLC (Little Rock, AR).
RSLC-Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Republican State Leadership Committee (Washington, DC).
Heartland Action PAC - $7,400 from Centene Corporation.
Partners for Public Safety - $20,000 from United Way of Greater Kansas City.
Best Start for Kids STL - $15,912 from WEPOWER.
Best Start for Kids STL - $20,000 from Andrew Yawitz.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Ken McClure.
Sunday: Brian Bernskoetter.